The worst script for Poland would be to introduce a truce in Ukraine – the Russians would free their forces not against the Ukrainian army that was trained in the fight, but against the weaker Baltic states and comparatively weak Poland, which is not decently prepared.
In fresh days 1 of the most crucial events was the breach of Poland's airspace drones. But equally crucial is the breach of Estonia's airspace by the Russian Federation's aircraft, their flights over the Polish economical region and the announcement of abroad Minister Radosław Sikorski that the Polish state will no longer warn, which means that these planes will be shot down. 2 different schools of approach developed in this case. any commentators believe that the problem will solve itself and that Poland should not take armed action, due to the fact that the threat of the war on atomic Russia raises a clear fear. Others – including, it seems, Minister Sikorski – feel that specified machines should be shot down if necessary. However, the case is complicated due to the fact that allies in Western Europe clearly propose that due to hybrid incidents, the West will not start a war with Russia. In a akin tone, even Boris Johnson, previously regarded as a hawk in the face of the war in Ukraine, spoke. It may turn out that we will be participating in the hybrid war ourselves – that is why we must prepare for it – besides in cooperation with regional allies, as I have repeatedly said: with Sweden, Finland, Ukraine and others. It is not surprising, therefore, that Minister Sikorski and Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz go to Kiev and talk about acquiring fresh drone capture systems, air defence systems and general military cooperation with Ukraine. According to my sources, Ukrainian peculiar services and the government have besides agreed to specified cooperation – we now have a fresh beginning in relations with Poland. Let us not waste this chance – I will remind you that Ukrainians are technologically and militarily much more advanced than we are.
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Let us not let ourselves to be deluded that this is only due to the fact that we have higher GDP. These morbid and unhealthy illusions can lead to the collapse of the Polish state. There is no point in waiting – you must immediately start military cooperation with Ukraine. Especially that, as we can see, Americans are not eager to warrant us something – and there are also statements by Donald Trump. It is besides worrying to be constantly discussed by Polish commentators: what he said and what it means. In this situation it is appropriate to accelerate the reforms of the Polish Army in the desired direction. 1 of the key actions should be the deregulation of the alleged section B, namely the openness to robotics and automation associated with the drone battlefield. We keep our fingers crossed and hope that the Strategy& Future will accomplish this.
It is essential that we all be safer to open ourselves up to civilian capacity, civilian capital and the market, present over-regulated and tiresomely dominated by bureaucracy. This would importantly change the position of the Polish state – its negotiating capacity and rank in the eyes of the United States. I hope that Polish politicians – especially those powerfully rooted in the belief of America's omnipotence – see this element; however, I wonder if they see it, or if they fear that it would lower their position resulting from peculiar relations with the United States. In another words, there is no way to regulate. Europeans will besides follow this path. Denmark has already adopted a deregulation law and produces solid fuel for rocket missiles for a known Ukrainian company – in practice ignoring regulatory barriers, including any EU regulations.
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In this respect, this is very crucial – we are entering an era in which less regulations, less laws, and more action – which I want the Polish State. At the same time, I would like to say that I personally anticipate to increase drone attacks – in particular, I fear tiny FPV drones, e.g. on fibre optics, in Bartoszice, Braniewo, cities located 10 km from the border – in Sokółka, Hajnówka and akin towns, where it will be very hard to tackle them. There is simply a temptation of a preemptive blow directed not against the drones themselves, but at what shoots them. The drones themselves are hard to destruct and predict. I anticipate specified efforts to be intensified.
The worst script for Poland would be to introduce a truce in Ukraine – the Russians would free their forces not against the Ukrainian army that was trained in the fight, but against the weaker Baltic states and comparatively weak Poland, which is not decently prepared. The military is not ready for a fresh kind of war, and the Russians have a large, shelled and prepared army, while the safety architecture in the region will not function. An American presence will not be guaranteed and safety guarantees will stay questionable, which will make an perfect hybrid war scenario.
I urge that the Polish State prepare for this possibility. deficiency of preparation will be noticed by investors who will not invest east of Poland. In another words, it is the work of the host of the Polish state.
