The guest of the "War Front" podcast was Gen. Stanisław Koziej, erstwhile head of the National safety Office, head of the 2014 National safety Strategy, and now prof. at the Academy of War Art.
Is Poland ready for war?
The programme leader Marcin Wyrał started by asking whether Poland is ready for a possible war with Russia. It lists 4 pillars on which the front is maintained in Ukraine:
- Artillery
- Drones
- Aviation
- Mine
The writer discusses each of these aspects and estimates that these are precisely the elements that the Polish military does not have or has in residual quantities.
Gen. However, Koziej argues with this question, claiming that a simple translation of copy-paste cannot be applied to the possible war between Poland and Russia. He stresses that in the war Poland as part of NATO's war with Russia not the amount, but the precision of fire can play a greater role.
— So I would ask what part of the production of our ammunition will be the ammunition of precise demolition – adds Gen. Koziej.
Marcin Wyrwała points out here that as far as Poland is concerned, it is hard to talk about the kind of ammunition we will produce, since from 2014, that is, from the beginning of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, our country has not been able to launch any serious production of artillery ammunition, whether precise or imprecise.
A further description and a full version of the episode in video form can be found below:
Will all NATO countries be active in the war?
The writer besides points out that Poland's own production is crucial to him, due to the fact that the experience of fresh years of war and the selfish attitude of any NATO countries makes him uncertainty whether they will all engage in war if Russia attacks the Atlantic Alliance. He cites the celebrated article 5 NATO, which obliges all members of the alliance to respond if 1 of them is attacked. It recalls that, in its precise wording, this article obliges each country to “such action as it considers necessary”. “For example, he can send helmets,” says Marcin Wyrał.
This is where General Koziej reacted. “And I will tell you what is active in expanding the likelihood of this article being implemented. Well, yes, this article says so, but it is about defeating the political consensus. He's already beaten in NATO. Now, while preparing these plans, due to the fact that these Alliance's operational plans must be approved by the North Atlantic Council on a political consensus basis. So if the staff prepare a appropriate defence plan, for example, for the Republic of Poland or the Baltic region, he is approved by the North Atlantic Council. It means that all states agree that if specified aggression occurs, they all work, he points out.
— I stress again that these last years of egoism of individual countries teach us a lot besides – Marcin Wyrwał answers.
See “War Fronts” in video version:
Why is BBN crucial to the Polish state?
The interviewers then decision on to the main subject of the podcast, the function of BBN in the fresh cast. The writer starts with a general question: why is the National safety Office specified an crucial institution for the safety of the full country?
The General recalls that the National safety Office is "the President's executive arm in safety matters, especially at the conceptual and strategical level, not at the executive level, due to the fact that here the president has no competence at all".
— Of course, it must be pointed out at the very beginning that the president does not have these competences on his own, but in cooperation with the government. (...) Here is the key function of the BBN as the president's liaison with the government – says Gen. Koziej.
Will the politicized BBN deal with the government?
Is specified a consensus possible erstwhile all the leading characters that will be part of the fresh BBN are so powerfully politicised?
Sławomir Cenckiewicz He was the erstwhile head of the Military Historical Bureau, as well as the liquidator of the Military Information Services and co-author of the highly controversial series "Reset", as well as a individual powerfully active in the political dispute.
General Andrzej Kowalski was a co-worker of the alleged Smolensk Subcommittee, who publically said that yet the “real circumstances” of the plane's government crash in Smolensk would be revealed.
General Mirosław Bryś was associated with the organisation of political military picnics.
Gen. Koziej admits that his “BBN assessments will always be tainted with love for this institution”.
– That's why I would dream, and I would stick to even a small bit of an optimistic scenario," he says. It then describes affirmative and negative scenarios.
The optimistic script would be that president Nawrocki would be curious in at least 1 area being taken out of a fierce political struggle. State safety could be specified an area. “ And the head of the NSA may besides want to show politicians, at least those with whom he is confronted, that he can come out with any cooperation initiatives,” he stresses.
Of course, the negative script implies a fierce political conflict besides in the field of security.
— It is no secret that president Andrzej Duda was much more hard to cooperate with the Minister of Defence in the times of the Law and Justice, Antoni Macierewicz, than with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish, notes the podcast.
Will Cenckiewicz be able to function without safety clearances?
Marcin Wyrwał then asks his guest to comment on an highly problematic situation for Sławomir Cenckiewicz as the head of BBN, i.e. the deficiency of safety credentials.
– He lost it in July 2024 for alleged lies in a survey. The Military Administrative Court subsequently repealed the decision of the SKW and the Prime Minister to revoke the certificates. On the another hand, KPRM, the Prime Minister, is presently waiting for the justification of the court. If the Prime Minister, for example for political reasons, does not like this justification, he may challenge them to the ultimate Administrative Court. So we can possibly play this game for a long time. Meanwhile, the head of the NSA won't have any safety clearance, so he won't have access to classified documents. How can you run a BBN in specified a situation? – he asks.
READ: Sławomir Cenckiewicz lied in a safety survey? He was targeted by the service.
— You can't. You can't be head of the NSA if you don't have access to classified information. How can a boss like that even talk to allies? How can he talk to the Minister of Defence? ’ — How can he even discuss safety matters that are mostly classified? Of course, there is simply a certain area of open issues that he can discuss, but I can't imagine he could be head of the NSA if he doesn't have access to classified information. Then he would gotta resign, resign, or the BBN would have been a dead institution, no 1 with the BBN would have been able to interact, he says.
In the further part of the programme, General Stanisław Koziej explains why the national safety strategy is an absolutely key paper for state security. It reminds us that for more than 3 years the full-scale war in the East, our country has not had specified a strategy and explains why it should be created as shortly as possible. The speakers besides wonder whether, in the current cast, the BBN is able to prepare specified a document.
