Trump–Xi meeting. Frequent truce on unclear terms

On October 30, the first gathering of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping took place in six years. The leaders have agreed on the deescalation of the commercial dispute, with both sides reporting differently the findings on the delicate issue of the Chinese government controlling exports of critical natural materials. Beijing officially declared suspension for 1 year of implementation of the rules in this area, which it announced on 9 October. On the another hand, the White home claims that the GOC besides undertook to ‘de facto abolish the restrictions introduced since 2023’ under a general licence granted to customers in the USA and their suppliers. In addition, he announced that China had undertaken to retreat from a number of another retort activities since spring.

The communications of the parties are, on the another hand, converging in points concerning, inter alia, the withdrawal of Washington from the September extension of the list of entities subject to restrictions, the simplification of customs duties to goods from China, the bilateral suspension of proceedings in the maritime sector and increases in port charges, the prevention of trade in fentanyl and purchases of American agricultural products by Chinese.According to Trump, the gathering opens the way for further negotiations of leaders, including the announced April 2026 visit of the American president to Beijing.

The gathering of leaders did not bring a breakthrough in the US–PRC relations.The strategical conflict of interest remains unresolved and the agreement concluded must be interpreted as a temporary pause in an escalation trade conflict. Both parties are gaining time to reduce dependence on rivals in delicate areas – advanced technologies (imported by the PRC) and key natural materials and components (US).

Comment

• Significant differences in post-meeting messages further increase the likelihood of a re-escalation of tensions. The list of concessions published by the White home on the part of Beijing is clearly longer and more circumstantial than that presented by the Ministry of Trade of the PRC. According to the Americans, the Chinese authorities have agreed to importantly grow the government of export control over fresh years, covering not only uncommon earth metals and their production technologies, but besides another critical materials specified as gal, german, antimony, or graphite. The implementation of commitments will be crucial for the destiny of the agreement. A real divided as to their form or slow operation of the Chinese side may prompt Trump to escalate the conflict again. At the same time, any further offensive U.S. steps – as in September this year. Beijing will take it as a breach of the terms of the truce.
• The deescalation of the dispute and the possible of further negotiations is beneficial for both parties. Beijing considers the Busan agreement a success – under force to implement wide restrictions on uncommon earth metals The White home again had to retreat from aggressive moves and failed to force concessions on fundamental issues specified as the adjustment of the economical model on the authorities of the PRC. Moreover, it confirmed Beijing's conviction of the rightness of assertive negotiating tactics and of the direction of economical improvement chosen (see IP/10/27). Xi Jinping economy: a technological “run forward”). Entering larger talks with Trump gives China an chance to postpone further economical strikes. On the another hand, the president of the United States stresses that the gathering proved to be his large negotiating success, and the results will translate straight into benefits for average Americans (e.g. in the context of soya). It besides seeks to present an agreement as the beginning of a more permanent arrangement between the 2 powers (which it refers to as ‘G2’), stressing that it may be extended for subsequent years. This message is intended to calm both American business and public opinion there. The suspension of the trade conflict is besides intended to give the US more time to reduce key dependence on China, peculiarly in the area of critical natural materials.
• Other economies, including the EU, will besides benefit from the suspension of the October Chinese restrictions. Beijing confirmed that the suspension of implementation of the principles announced on 9 October of extraterritorial control of exports of rare-earth metals, as well as restrictions on batteries and superhard materials (see IP/10/27). Hitting Europe's Defence: China tightens control over strategical product exports) does not concern the US alone, but the full world. In turn, Washington stated that the authorities of the PRC would besides grant ‘general licences’ for exports of uncommon earth metals, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite to US companies and their abroad suppliers. If these announcements are implemented, European business will be in a worse position than American competition. However, the European Union will effort to usage this precedent in ongoing negotiations with Beijing, although it will anticipate clear concessions in another fields. Furthermore, the White home claims that, under the agreement, the GOC undertook to take action to guarantee the resumption of exports applicable to the global automotive manufacture of chips from Nexperia plants in China. The Chinese side has confirmed that it will take specified steps, but it does not link them to negotiations with the US. The shipments were stopped by Beijing after the Hague government took control of the Chinese-owned part of the company located in the Netherlands.