During the last press briefing, Donald Trump was asked about the possible withdrawal of NATO troops from Poland as part of a possible agreement with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
The answer was short but meaningful.
"There was no specified proposal," replied the president of the United States.
After a while, he added:
"I'll think about it later."
This 1 conviction opens up a broad field for speculation. Trump denied that any concrete arrangements should be made, but his words do not regulation out that the subject may return. This message was received by many as an effort to keep flexibility in possible talks with Russia.
Since the beginning of its presidency, Trump has approached NATO from a transaction position. He forced allies to increase defence spending, first up to 2%, and later up to 5% of GDP. In his communicative NATO is not so much a community of values as a partnership based on cost balance. Europe, including Poland, had to start “paying more for its own defence” – as he himself repeated many times.
Poland, 1 of the most loyal allies of the USA in the region, has so far met these expectations. Trump praised her for her commitment and readiness to cooperate with the military. In the past he spoke of Poles:
“They are 1 of the best people I have always met.”
However, this does not change the fact that all understatement on NATO, all “I will think later”, is received in Warsaw with the highest seriousness. Especially now that the war in Ukraine is ongoing, and the region's safety depends on the credibility of American guarantees.
At the fresh NATO summit in The Hague, associate States, with the exception of one, committed themselves to raising defence spending to 5% of GDP. It is simply a symbolic and applicable confirmation that the Alliance is trying to respond to fresh threats and uncertainty about Washington's future decisions.
European leaders, aware of Trump's variable attitude, are increasingly talking about the request to strengthen European strategical autonomy. Although Article 5 – speaking of common defence – remains intact, its real strength depends on the political will of the top players.
Trump, although officially proposing nothing, seems to test the limits of loyalty and the readiness of allies to act on their own. His words about NATO and Poland are not only a denial of a concrete proposal – it is besides a signal that the rules can be negotiated. Is this just a diplomatic game? Is the beginning of a change of power in Europe? 1 thing is certain: all conviction spoken by Trump in the context of NATO present has the importance of a geopolitical signal.
