Alternative to Putinism
Throughout the quarter-century of Putin's rule, his main goal was to hold on to power until his death. This desire has always played an crucial function in the decisions he has made. He worked to destruct any possible threats to his position and consistently suppressed opposition in the country. Prominent political opponents, including my father, Boris German and Alexey Navalna, were killed. Free media no longer exists.
At the moment, these interior repressions aid Putin to wage war and stay in power. He always felt that Kiev — with its efforts to cut off from Russia — undermines the stableness of his regime. The existence of a democratic and prosperous Ukraine allied with Europe could show the Russians that there is simply a better alternate to putinism. That is why Putin wants to destruct Ukraine as a state at all costs.
Running the war besides allows Putin to keep a state of emergency in Russia, which gives him many benefits. This is an excellent excuse to increase the repression and exacerbation of censorship and a universal explanation of the economical difficulties facing the country. The elimination of independent media and the introduction of laws prohibiting the criticism of troops made brainwashing easier for Russians. In this way, it is easier for the authorities to convince them that prolonged war is necessary, despite its tremendous costs in the form of human sacrifices and economical problems.
In a crisis situation, no 1 dares to think about the future, let alone to ask the government to present a country's improvement plan or question the effectiveness of its leadership. Imagine that Russia no longer has an emergency, no enemies plotting against it. What can then safe Putin’s regime?
Putin's not curious in the room.
Trump repeatedly said he believed Putin wanted peace with Ukraine. However, this is contrary to American intelligence data, which indicate that Putin is not curious in any long-term peace agreement. He has besides much to lose.
Yes, he would most likely want a temporary break too. Recruitment of soldiers willing to fight in Ukraine became highly costly and International sanctions harm the overheated economy And the Kremlin elites. Russian officials openly speculate about the possible return of Western companies, which is simply a signal that sanctions have hurt them and are eagerly awaiting their abolition.
Another reason why Putin can agree to a short-term halt of armed action is that the Russians are besides in favour of ending the fighting. In a fresh survey conducted by an independent Russian Field investigation firm, 56% of respondents stated that they supported peace talks, 55% advocated ceasefire without any circumstantial conditions, and 76% would support Putin's signing a peace agreement with Ukraine.
However, there is simply a difference between stopping fighting and ensuring long-term peace. It is clear that Putin is not curious in a long-term room. It is most likely that it will usage any break in armed action to rebuild Russia's military capabilities. erstwhile it does, it will resume war against Ukraine or another countries. That is why Volodymyr Zelenski rightly insists on safety guarantees.
Next time Putin doesn't gotta attack Ukraine. Belarus may be an easier mark for him by an ageing dictator. The Russian Army has quite a few combat experience, which makes it a threat to each of its neighbours in the average term. If Russia takes full control of Belarus, it will start neighbouring certain EU and NATO associate States, creating a direct threat to them.
Internal policy Putin
So how can Trump prevent it? By insisting that the peace agreement contains provisions that will foster long-term change in the Russian economy and society.
Firstly, they should prevent Russia from arming itself, why Putin will, of course, resist. Russian military spending already exceeds all European defence budgets combined. The Russian national economy will undoubtedly proceed to operate under war conditions, and Russia will request parts, electronics and machinery to build modern weapons. Moscow will most likely push hard to abolish Western sanctions, including the current ban on technology exports. That is why these sanctions should stay in force. The West shouldn't make it easy for Russia to set up.
YURI Kochetkov / Pool / PAPVladimir Putin, Moscow, Russia, 17 March 2025.
Secondly, Russia should pay for rebuilding Ukraine. The Kiev School of Economics estimates that direct harm to Ukrainian infrastructure reached 170 billion dollars (more than PLN 654 billion). Russia should pay for this reconstruction, which is entirely in line with both the common sense and Trump's transactional approach to global relations. Europe and the US have a strong negotiating position, as there are frozen Russian assets worth $300 billion (1 trillion PLN).
The thought that Russia owes Ukraine compensation, is not popular even in the circles of the Russian opposition. It would not only be unfair to let Putin go, but would besides encourage him to act in the same way in the future. If Russia had to hand over any funds to Ukraine, it could not usage them to defend itself. The future peace agreement should so entail the abolition of certain non-military sanctions with Russian contributions to the reconstruction fund.
Thirdly, there are solutions that could limit Putin's repression in the country and hinder him from remobilising Russian society to war. 1 possible way could be to resurrect something like Jackson-Vanik's amendment, which required the russian Union to agree to respect certain human rights and let Jews to emigrate in exchange for extended trade with the United States. In this case, in exchange for the abolition of certain sanctions, the West could insist that Russia free political prisoners, abandon censorship laws, including those prohibiting the activities of "foreign agents" and another organizations perceived as enemies of the regime, and unlock the activities of services specified as YouTube, Facebook and Instagram.
ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP / AFPU.S. president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, 30 November 2018.
Such provisions would undoubtedly reduce the likelihood of future Russian aggression. due to the fact that her invasion of Ukraine was preceded by increased human rights violations, including illegal prison, murders and suppression of independent media. Conversely, the empowerment of people in a country who are not afraid to argue the government is simply a natural deterrent to senseless wars. So is free media.
Many of my non-Russian friends wondered why Putin did not care about the advanced number of Russian fatalities in Ukraine. The answer is very simple: it does not have to. due to the fact that in the country there are only media controlled by the authorities and does not gotta answer to their citizens. So ignoring Putin's interior policy objectives can only strengthen the likelihood of fresh Russian aggression.
If the Trump administration wants to scope an effective agreement ending the war, it must pay attention to these issues.
