Marek Baterowicz: Siberia-the ghost of war

For years, it has been heard that Beijing intends to take Taiwan (meaning Formosa, as the Portuguese call it) and frequently arranges sharp maneuvers around this beautiful island. It would be an introduction to the war escalation in the Indo-Pacific area, where the Chinese plan to grow their influence. But a completely different script was presented late by John Lonergan ( Harvard MBA), suggesting that a lobby was increasing in China proposing a different direction of expansion and alternatively of an invasion of Taiwan would take Siberia. The author of the article ( “China will invade Siberia, not Taiwan”, 3 of July 2025) besides argues that the resignation of aggression against Taiwan will let the Chinese people's army to avoid massive losses, and gives here even the probable number of planes knocked down (155 and not more?) and sunk ships (about 140, just?), let alone the failure of personnel in the Chinese armed forces. And that could affect losing the prestige of the Chinese army, and you gotta know that Taiwan is armed to the teeth. Lonergan besides adds that the Taiwan Strait is 5 times wider, reaching about a 100 nautical miles, while the Germans failed to capture England in 1940, although the La Manche canal is only 22 miles away! However, he did not mention the large aviators defending the skies of Albion, among whom – as many admit – Poles were the best. King George VI appreciated this. And as he concludes, the Taiwan invasion would be a large risk, so it is far more profitable for the Chinese to effort to annex Siberia, covering many riches, energy sources and minerals. The point is that China and Russia are officially allies and have a immense animosity towards the West. There is no uncertainty a large obstacle to this. In the past of the world, however, there are different precedents, specified as the Ribbentrop-Molotov Treaty, violated by Barbarossa's plan. And any areas have only belonged to Russia since 1860, specified Vladivostok—for example—was formerly called Manchu, then besides Haishenwei, depending on the Chinese Quing dynasty. The Amur River besides divided both nations, the northern shores belonged to the Tsar Empire, and the confederate to the Chinese Empire. And in Beijing, they see the weakness of the Russian army, struggling for 3 years with Ukraine, as well as a very deserted Siberia, where weak garrisons remained. What's gonna take over? What's the destiny of Russian Siberia? This was considered already in the 19th century, as Mr. Marek Wakezsz wrote in the most interesting book “The End of Russian America” (contemplation of the reasons for Alaska’s sale), published in Warsaw in 2023: “...in 1866 The Russians wondered how to counter the U.S. force on Siberia, as well as fearing Siberia's disengagement from Russia as a consequence of ...”Polish ideas” and the formation of an independent republic like the United States” ( p. 241).

And the situation in the 21st century is inactive more confusing. Here, a fewer days ago, Chinese Minister Wang Yi confessed in Brussels that Beijing prefers Russia's triumph in the conflict with Ukraine, due to the fact that in the event of Moscow's defeat, the full military burden of the US would turn against China. Disturbing honesty! China's anti-Ukrainian stance resembles Trump's policy, which clearly teases Russia in this war. And specified a position means that we return to the time of president Roosevelt's anesthetic, who was working with Stalin in Tehran and Yalta above the heads of Poles (also allies of the West!). And we remember the consequences of this submission and we are afraid of fresh bows and concessions to Stalin's grandson, due to the fact that then mainly east Europe will suffer. The possible failure of Siberia, on the another hand, let the Russians worry, yet it is no of our business. At the most, Russia will not be able to take back Alaska, as Russian children sing in a song arranged for them by the militarist empire.

Marek Baterovich