KO wins, PiS loses. Latest organization poll

The latest United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland shows that the political scene in Poland remains highly dynamic. The Civic Coalition maintains its lead with support, ahead of Law and Justice and the Confederation.

The Civic Coalition (KO) supports 31 percent of voters; Law and Justice (PiS) supports 26.5% and the Confederation supports 16.4% - according to the United Surveys survey for Virtual Poland. The following places included: 3rd Road - 6.7 percent support, Left - 4.7 percent and organization Together - 0.8 percent.

The respondents in the poll answered the question of who they would vote for in the elections to the Sejm if they could choose from the following groups: KO, PiS, Confederate, 3rd Road, Left, organization Together.

Compared to the erstwhile survey in early March, the difference in percent points for each group was: KO - -0.1; PiS - -2.1; Confederation - -0.8; 3rd Road - +0.9; Left - -0.2; full -0.3.

13.9% of respondents do not know who they would vote for. The undecided group grew from the erstwhile survey most - by 2.6 percent points).

Virtual Poland, based on the electoral calculator created by Prof. Jarosław Flis from the Jagiellonian University, converted the percent support into the number of seats in the Sejm.

It shows that KO would have won 200 seats in the Sejm, PiS 167 mandates, Confederation 93 - which means that no organization would have reached an independent majority.

"There would not be a place in the Sejm for the 3rd Way, for which 6.7 percent of respondents would vote. In this case, the organization can number on a 0.9 percent points increase in support. But that's not enough. For coalition electoral committees, the threshold is 8 percent (if so the 3rd Way ran in specified a arrangement as in 2023 - it would not be in the Sejm). The survey shows that Parliament would besides deficiency space for the Left, which could number for 4.7 percent. The organization - in effect - would not exceed the electoral threshold" - was written.

As indicated in the commentary on the study, it shows "a changing arrangement of forces on the Polish political stage".

The survey was conducted on behalf of Virtual Poland by United Surveys on 21-23 March 2025. The survey was carried out with the CAWI/CATI method on a group of 1000 people.(PAP)