Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Job Reports Galore, ISMs, Powell And More

Prepare to be disorientated this holiday shortened week, as payrolls sees a rare Thursday print ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday, with both JOLTS and ADP labor reports ahead of the Payrolls report. We also have the US ISMs tomorrow and Wednesday, and the various global PMI numbers from tomorrow which will give us a good guide to global economic momentum in June.

Elsewhere, DB’s Jim Reid notes that a highlight will be the ECB forum in Sintra starting today and the European inflation numbers today and tomorrow. The US tax bill should be finalized this week although at the moment it needs to pass the Senate today (or possibly tomorrow), after a drama filled weekend of horse trading, and then back to the House for final approval. The President wants it done by Friday’s holiday. At that point attention will swiftly focus to the July 9th deadline extension for reciprocal tariffs, but not before we first hear from Powell again tomorrow during the ECB Sintra conclave. Indeed you’ll probably get headlines build up this week and the risk to the market is that with the S&P 500 hitting a new record high at the end of last week, with Treasury yields more becalmed, and with a new tax cutting bill, it’s possible that the Trump Administration feels emboldened to be aggressive again. On Friday the US announced that they were stopping trade talks with Canada in retaliation for their digital service taxes and that new tariffs would be launched within a week. However, overnight Canada has dropped this tax to enable talks to restart. This is perhaps a warning shot for the world. So before next Wednesday a lot of water will flow under the global trade bridge.

Let’s go through a few of the week’s main highlights of the week ahead, but remember the full day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual.

For payrolls, DB expects the headline number (+100k forecast vs. +139k previously) to be slightly below the consensus of +113k, with a similar story for private payrolls (DB +100k, consensus +110k, vs. +140k previously). This would also be below the three-month average of 135k and 133k, respectively. Their rationale is based on 1) initial jobless claims being up 8.8% during the June survey week relative to May; and 2) their observation of a recent pattern of subdued summer payroll gains. They also expect the unemployment rate to edge up a tenth to 4.3% but with the risks skewed to it staying unchanged.

Although 100k on payrolls seems low, economists think the breakeven rate which keeps the unemployment rate steady, is around 100k at the moment and could even be as low as 50k given the Trump Administrations’ migration policies. If correct, we could have a situation where low payroll growth still tightens the labor market.

Leading up to payrolls we have JOLTS tomorrow, ADP on Wednesday and also watch out for the employment components in today’s Chicago PMI, tomorrow’s manufacturing ISM, and Wednesday’s Services ISM.

In Europe, the big event will be the ECB’s forum on central banking in Sintra running from today through to Wednesday. The policy panel tomorrow will feature heads of the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, the BoE and the BoK. So plenty of potential headlines there. The ECB will also release its account of the June policy meeting on Thursday and their consumer expectations survey is due tomorrow. Elsewhere in Europe, the BoE will publish its DMP, bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys on Thursday.

In terms of European data, June CPI will continue to be in focus after Friday’s prints for France and Spain showed a slight uptick in inflation. Reports for Germany and Italy are out today, with the Eurozone-wide release scheduled for tomorrow. Swiss inflation data is due on Thursday. We also have May German retail sales (today) and factory orders (Friday), Italian retail sales and French IP on Friday.

In Japan the BoJ’s Q2 Tankan survey results come out tomorrow with our economists forecasting that the business condition index for large manufacturers in the Tankan survey will worsen -3 points to +9. They expect a similar gauge for large non-manufacturers to slip -2 points to +33. This could be one of a few factors that help influence whether the BoJ hikes again in July, although there’s lots of moving parts at the moment including trade agreements with the US.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 30

• Data: US June MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, China June official PMIs, UK June Lloyds Business Barometer, May net consumer credit, M4, Q1 current account balance, Japan May industrial production, housing starts, Germany June CPI, May retail sales, import price index, Italy June CPI, Eurozone May M3
• Central banks: ECB’s forum on central banking in Sintra (through July 2), Lagarde speaks, Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee speak

Tuesday July 1

• Data: US June ISM index, Dallas Fed services activity, total vehicle sales, May JOLTS report, construction spending, China June Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan Q2 Tankan survey, June consumer confidence index, Germany June unemployment claims rate, Italy June manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Eurozone June CPI
• Central banks: A policy panel at ECB’s forum in Sintra featuring Fed’s Chair Powell, ECB’s President Lagarde, BoJ’s Governor Ueda and BoE’s Governor Bailey, ECB’s Guindos, Elderson and Schnabel speak, ECB’s May consumer expectations survey

Wednesday July 2

• Data: US June ADP report, Japan June monetary base, France May budget balance, Italy May unemployment rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, Canada June manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Guindos, Cipollone and Lane speak, BoE’s Taylor speaks

Thursday July 3

• Data: US June jobs report, ISM services, May trade balance, factory orders, initial jobless claims, China June Caixin services PMI, UK June official reserve changes, Italy June services PMI, Canada May international merchandise trade, Switzerland June CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s account of the June meeting, Fed’s Bostic speaks, BoJ’s Takata speaks, BoE’s June DMP, Q2 bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys

Friday July 4

• Data: UK June new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan May household spending, Germany June construction PMI, May factory orders, France May industrial production, Italy May retail sales, Eurozone May PPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Villeroy speaks, BoE’s Taylor speaks
• Other: US Independence Day

* * *

Finally, turning to the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Thursday. There are a few speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell on Tuesday.

Monday, June 30

• 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, June (consensus 42.9, last 40.5)
• 10:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak on the US economic outlook during an event hosted by MNI Connect. Q&A is expected. On June 24, Bostic told Reuters he thinks a single rate cut of a quarter point is warranted this year and that the last quarter of the year “is sort of when [he] would expected we would know enough to move [the funds rate].”
• 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak in a moderated Q&A at the 2025 Aspen Ideas Festival in Aspen, Colorado. On June 23, Goolsbee said, „Somewhat surprisingly, thus far, the impact of tariffs has not been what people feared.” He went on to say that „If we don’t see inflation resulting from these tariff increases, then, in my mind, we never left what I was calling the golden path before April 2.”

Tuesday, July 1

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, June final (consensus 52.0, last 52.0)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, June (GS 49.0, consensus 48.7, last 48.5): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index rebounded by 0.5pt to 49.0 in June, reflecting mixed manufacturing surveys so far for the month (GS manufacturing survey tracker -0.2pt to 49.1) but a tailwind from potential residual seasonality.
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, May (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.2%, last -0.4%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, May (GS 7,300k, consensus 7,300k, last 7,391k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged down to 7.3mn in May based on the signal from online job postings.
• 01:00 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee. Q&A is expected. In his prepared remarks before the House Financial Services Committee, Powell reiterated that the FOMC was „well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” When asked whether the FOMC could cut rates in July, Powell noted that “he wouldn’t want to point to a particular meeting” for the first cut and that he didn’t think the FOMC needed “to be in any rush because the economy is still strong, and the labor market is strong.”
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, June (GS 15.0mn, consensus 15.35mn, last 15.65mn)

Wednesday, July 2

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, June (GS +80k, consensus +90k, last +37k)

Thursday, July 3

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, May (GS -$75.0bn, consensus -$71.1bn, last -$61.6bn); We estimate that the trade deficit rose from $61.6bn in April to $75.0bn in May, reflecting declines in goods exports and travel exports offset by a modest increase in financial services exports.
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, June (GS +85k, consensus +113k, last +139k); Private payroll employment, June (GS +85k, consensus +110k, last +140k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), June (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Unemployment rate, June (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 85k in June. On the positive side, the end of worker strikes will provide a 6k boost. On the negative side, big data indicators indicated a weaker pace of job creation, we assume a 25k drag from the termination of Temporary Protected Status for approximately 350k Venezuelan migrants in mid-May, and we expect roughly unchanged government payrolls (GS forecast 0k vs. 7k on average so far this year), reflecting a 15k decline in federal government payrolls that offsets a 15k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% on a rounded basis—a low bar from an unrounded 4.24%—reflecting sequential increases in other measures of labor market slack. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting neutral calendar effects.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 28 (GS 240k, consensus 241k, last 236k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 21 (consensus 1,950k, last 1,974k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, June final (consensus 53.1, last 53.1)
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, May (GS +7.8%, consensus +8.1%, last -3.7%): Factory orders ex-transportation, May (last -0.5%); Durable goods orders, May final (last +16.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May final (last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, May final (last +1.7%); Core capital goods shipments, May final (last +0.5%): We forecast that factory orders rose 7.8% in May, reflecting a sharp increase in nondefense aircraft and parts.
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, June (GS 51.0, consensus 50.6, last 49.9): We estimate that the ISM services index increased by 1.1pt to 51.0 in June, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+0.5pt to 50.8 in June) and a tailwind from potential residual seasonality.
• 11:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak on monetary policy at the IMFS Distinguished Lecture Series in Frankfurt. Speech text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, July 4

• US Independence Day holiday. NYSE will be closed, SIFMA recommends bond markets remain closed, and there are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Source: DB, Goldman