A day after the presentation of the coalition agreement, many scientists met in Berlin to discuss an urgent issue: Will the promises of migration policy be kept? And will people appreciate it so much that they will trust the ruling parties again? The subject could not be more up-to-date, as the Chadecs had identified this as the goal of future government policy before the elections.
The coalition agreement is already available and from the CDU/CSU point of view promises to return: more border controls, more deportations, more refusals, including asylum seekers. So, hard announcements are followed by hard means, for now on paper.
— I believe that the coalition agreement finds the right answers and manages to keep a balance, facilitating the urgently needed immigration of skilled workers and labour, while effectively reducing illegal migration, says Dirk Wiese, SDP MP. Is that adequate to bring back voters who have gone and become disappointed? This may not be easy in the coming days.
The first conclusions presented by scientists on Thursday at the Mercator Forum for Migration and Democracy are positive. The point is, however, that politicians not only talk but besides act. 2 experts checked whether the parties had kept their promises about the migration they made during the electoral campaigns. It turned out that in the past, at least in part. 58% of the promises concerning the migration policy of Merkel were made, despite the essential coalition compromises.
The presumption that hard announcements are not followed is wrong, says 1 of the authors of the study. But as in specified a case, 1 can explain “the emergence of the populist right”, another expert wonders. This is The problem that the erstwhile coalition besides felt.
Since 2023, the authorities have implemented respective measures exacerbating migration policies that previously seemed unthinkable to CDU/CSU and SPD — specified as checks at all borders. Recently, Syrians have even been turned back on a large scale, and Number of arrivals decreased significantly.
This did nothing to the SPD, from which Nancy Faeser, the erstwhile Minister of the Interior, came. According to Infratest Dimap, only 14 percent stated after the general election that they thought the organization would most likely have a good asylum and exile policy, and 22 percent said this about AfD. Will the same be actual of Merz?
Citizens would like a more restrictive approach
One explanation for the deficiency of assurance in the organization from the erstwhile coalition is their mediocre communication. Who knows that many Syrians are prevented from entering the country? Although the erstwhile government passed stricter rules, it besides introduced liberalisation which many voters do not accept. Many people reject, for example, double citizenship which the three-party coalition promised to all who wanted to naturalize — or further residence rights for migrants who are obliged to leave the country.
The future coalition has a different approach. Although it will quietly proceed any liberal measures, highlight the restrictive elements. Power language can impress skeptical voters — as shown by Donald Trump's election successes.
However, there are 2 problems related to the alleged Black-red coalition and they are not easy to solve. 1 concerns implementation. Not everything that changes the fresh government leads to noticeable changes in practice. For example, it is inactive unclear whether in the future much more migrants will be returned in time, i.e. whether they will yet arrive in Germany much less.
The second problem will most likely be peculiarly hard for most parties. What if crucial Some voters want much harder measures, than is possible in a liberal constitutional state? If you look at the preferences of the public, you would gotta say that many people want "a smaller immigration or possibly even a full deficiency of it," says Christian Joppke, a retired prof. of sociology at the University of Bern. However, this cannot be achieved through a liberal immigration policy.
PATRICK PLEUL / DPA / PAPPolice patrol close the Polish-German border, 4 March 2025.
The prof. explains that asylum migration cannot be set to zero due to the fact that global law and in Germany besides the constitution, guarantee the rights of those actually persecuted, whose main parties do not want to challenge.
The question remains whether the hazard of attacks can be eliminated in a country that respects freedom. Disappointment and anger seem inevitable among those who are peculiarly frustrated. “The next coalition wants to make a realistic return in migration policy,” says Hans Vorlaender, manager of the Mercator Forum for Migration and Democracy. “This will initially alleviate the situation. But what happens erstwhile he finds himself under force again? If there's another attack, What will Merz do then??
Then the debate would focus again on the failure of the authorities. - They are. Problems to be addressed in the coalition agreement, especially after Merz awakened expectations in the election campaign. But no of this results from the criticism of Vorlaender.
Johannes Mueller-Salo, a investigator at the University of Hanover, besides mentions "government inefficiency" as the main problem behind the failure of trust. Although acts like racist panic in Hanau, neo-Nazi murders or attack in Magdeburg they disagree from each other, they are very akin in 1 crucial respect: Government failure played a key role. — Politicians observe the work of the administrative, especially the federal, thicket of competence.
Matthias Bein/dpa / PAPPolice at the scene of the Magdeburg attack, 21 December 2024.
Wiese of the SPD yet calls for more careful listening to local authorities to see if the change of course has any effect. “One indicator for us should be whether accommodation and integration of recently arrived in municipalities are successful “ He says. To this end, emphasis is placed on integration courses and migration advice, and refugees are made easier to find work.
Mueller-Salo thinks we request more. In his opinion, a massive effort to regain assurance must begin “in the heart of the state”. The creation of a fresh Ministry of Digitisation and Modernisation of the State indicates that the coalition partners have at least partially recognised this problem.
