Forget the NATO you know. The U.S. safety Strategy, which has just been announced in Washington, does not powder relations with Europe, puts them on the blade. The paper speaks of the "civilising weakening" of the continent and announces "the cultivating of resistance" to the current course of the Union. In practice, this means political support for the ‘patriotic’ forces to reverse this course.You can hear applause in Moscow in Brussels.
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The US is writing Europe's fresh scenario
Washington combines Europe's weaknesses with migration, polarisation and "reregulation", phenomena which undermine competitiveness, the ability to task strength and social cohesion in this logic. This calls for a "correction of course": little organization centralism, more decisions in national capitals, a precedence of safety over regulatory agendas. In this light, the increasing support for the "patriotic" forces appears to the authors as a lever of change that is worth strengthening. It is not a language of discreet diplomacy, but a preview of political force — from communicative to cooperation instruments. For EU countries, it is simply a test of resilience: whether they can defend their own choices and organization governance erstwhile the most crucial ally starts playing to loosen integration as such.j.
Russia: little Moralities, More Transactions
The strategy does not brand Russia with the word "enemy" but refers to "strategic stability" and the fast end of armed action. Translating from diplomatic: the temptation to suspend weapons and negociate without hard guarantees that will in practice frost conflict. It's a script convenient for the Kremlin. For Ukraine, the hazard of concreteizing losses and force on "compromises" without real security.
5% of GDP and account for Europe
The fresh political standard is clear: by 2035 allies are expected to scope 5% of GDP for safety widely understood, with at least 3.5% for defence expenditure itself. any capitals will find it unrealistic, but logic is ruthless: a smaller American presence in Europe means greater financial and industrial autonomy on our side. He who does not increase production will become a client of another people’s factories — and of another people’s politics.
Moscow applauds — and rightly rejoices
Russia reads the paper as proof that the West is tired of war and that the transatlantic divided is possible. In this frame, the Kremlin does not gotta win — it is adequate that it does not lose. Each week without a breakthrough strengthens his belief that the West will "let go" sanctions, and Ukraine's subject will dispel the dispute over China and migration.
What will Europe (and Poland) do about it
First, turn declarations into deliveries. Common ammunition procurement, production jump financing and training coordination — these are 3 essential pillars. Second: build a warranty package for Kiev, which will not disable the temper change in the White House. Thirdly: to politically halt defending "status quo" and start proposing an attractive alternate for citizens: safety + competitiveness + legal order without which the support for integration is weakened.
Three realistic paths to 2026
- Autonomy with acceleration: expenditure spike, joint manufacture funding, increased military presence on the east flank.
- Transitional arrangement: Europe adds, the U.S. becomes a “superviser” of order — little troops, more pressure.
- Drift: deficiency of decisions and separation of national policies; Ukraine loses momentum, Russia gains time.
The second option is most likely today. But only until there is no ammunition — or the patience of voters. Then the bill will come immediately.
Source: National safety strategy (White home – PDF), Reuters, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, NATO – The Hague Summit Declaration, SIPRI, CSIS.
