On November 15, president Xi Jinping arrived in San Francisco at the summit of Asia-Pacific economical Cooperation (APEC). By the way, he met with US president Joe Biden, with whom he spoke for 4 hours at the villa, where a series "Dynasty" was recorded years ago.
Both leaders agreed to launch a presidential "hot line" and resume communication between the armed forces, broken up in August 2022 after the then president of the home of Representatives visited Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan, which led to the 4th Taiwan Strait crisis. As part of it, after the departure of N. Pelosi – indicating that Beijing's intention was not to start a war with the US – on 4 August 2022 the Chinese People's Liberation Army began a series of exercises ("directed military operations") utilizing sharp ammunition, surrounding Taiwan. The exercises utilized reconnaissance drones, combat aircraft, and warships, fired ballistic missiles and long-range rockets. A landing drill, a naval and air blockade.
Beijing sought to show its strength towards the Yankees and Taiwan, its deficiency of designation of the “central line” in the Taiwan Strait as an informal border with the Republic of China, and besides wanted to make it clear that matters concerning the island, including its abroad relations, considered an interior issue. The exercises continued after 7 August erstwhile they were to formally end, which was an additional means of emphasis on the authorities in Taipei.
Taiwan
US and Chinese leaders did not scope agreement in San Francisco on Taiwan's future; Xi stated that China's unification could "not be stopped" and that this is the most delicate issue in relations between the 2 powers. The Chinese leader besides called on the U.S. not to support Taiwan's independency and to halt arming Taipei. For Washington, the prevention of Taiwan's incorporation by the People's Republic of China is crucial as it determines the stopping of Beijing's force projection in the East China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, which would endanger the supremacy of stars and lanes in that part of the planet.
Meanwhile, in Taiwan announced by Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's organization (TPP) for 18 November, the launch of a joint candidate for the January 2024 presidential election did not take place. 15 November KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih and candidate TPP Ko Wen-je They agreed that the joint presidential candidate would be the 1 with higher ratings, while the lower candidate would be the Vice president candidate. 18 November erstwhile mayor of Taipei Ko Wen-je However, he did not accept adverse polls and announced the maintenance of his candidacy.
The patron of the agreement is the erstwhile president of the Republic of China and the unofficial leader of the KMT Ma Ying-jeou, who was Taiwan's first president to meet Xi Jinping in Singapore in 2015, and in April 2022, already as erstwhile president, visited mainland China. He besides advocates the agreement Xu Chunying with TPP, attacked for participating in pro-unification events and alleged meetings with KPCh politicians by relays related to the ruling Democratic Progressive organization (DPP) president Tsai Ing-wen. fresh polls give advantage to Lai Ching-te from DPP, before Hou Yu-ihem, Ko Wen-je and the poignant part of the oligarch business opposition Terry Gou. KMT expects TPP to confirm a joint candidacy by 22 November, i.e. 2 days before the end of the period erstwhile candidates for the presidential election can be submitted1.
Artificial Intelligence
A Chinese-Yankean expert group is besides to be set up to discuss the risks of artificial intelligence. To any extent, the declaration was made and, to any extent, contradicted the final declaration of the Global safety Summit of the SI held on 1-2 November at Blethey Park, UK. It was attended by over a 100 participants; representatives of twenty-eight countries (Poland was not represented – unlike Ukraine for example) and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, as well as leading experts and manufacture leaders like Elon Musk, Sam Altman from Open AI, president of Global Meta Platforms Nick Clegg and Head of the SI technological squad of Yann LeCun.
The summit was seemingly a political success of Downing Street, as representatives of the US and China sat at 1 table and all participants declared their commitment to developing common safety standards and creating a multilateral expert body akin to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2 days before the Blethey Park summit, president Joe Biden However, he signed a regulation ordering SI developing companies to share safety investigation results with the US government before making the results of their work publically available. At the summit in England vice president of the United States Kamala Harris and the Secretary of Commerce of that State Gina Raimondo have so announced the creation of a "neutral" instrument in the form of the American Institute for safety of the SI, which was a clear step towards Washington's favoured uniteraryism in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prime Minister UK Rishi Sunak, in his effort to defend the multilateral approach, he expressed his concern at the summit that unilateral regulation of the improvement of the SI by the US would stifle innovation in this area. Vice president K. Harris replied that in view of the emergence of threats from SI in areas specified as the labour marketplace and misinformation, velocity is important. So the White home gave Downing Street a clear signal that in the area of artificial intelligence there would be no multilateralism and Washington would implement its own solutions and dictate them to the dependent states. Bilateral arrangements with China at the San Francisco summit confirm that the US is determined to deal only with the biggest players.
Climate warming
Washington and Beijing, the 2 largest CO issuers? in the world, they declared to triple the usage of renewable energy by 2030. This issue, which is not at the top of Xi Jinping's political agenda and Joe Biden's, may in future make additional tensions between powers. Stone coal is China's main energy natural material. However, the mediate State has made crucial investments in solar, wind and electrical cars (EV) in fresh years, which can become crucial for the US and EU markets in the long term.
Xi Jinping said at a gathering in San Francisco that "The planet is large enough" to accommodate the USA and China. This is simply a clear signal of an increase in ambition compared to 2014, erstwhile the Chinese leader expressed a akin opinion about the Pacific. Beijing presently has an ambition to co-manage the globe from the US. The president of the United States replied Chinese leaders: "We compete". Washington will not agree to the partnership of China and will likely reject participation in the fresh Silk Road and the 3 initiatives announced by the Chinese leader in San Francisco: for Global Security, for improvement and for Exchange. Joe Biden already after gathering Xi Jinping called him "dictator" and then stressed the importance of the anti-Chinese targeted US relations with countries specified as South Korea and Japan.
Conflict extinction and de-escalation
However, Washington's cooperation with Beijing is not excluded to put down wars in Ukraine and Palestine that complicate the implementation of the Belt and way Initiative and endanger uncontrollable escalation at the threshold of the U.S. dominance region in Europe and the US interests region in the mediate East. Washington could coerce to soften the Kiev and Tel Aviv positions while Beijing coerced Moscow and Hamas. The U.S. president asked the Chinese leader to launch communication channels with Iran to deescalate in the Gaza Strip, but Beijing's consequence to this request is unknown. For their part, the U.S. tried unsuccessfully to get Tel Aviv to spatially reduce the offensive, now focusing their efforts on prompting the Israeli authorities to limit its time.
Stars and belts besides fear a conflict in Taiwan, whose affirmative result for the U.S. would require investment in military deterrents that J. Biden's administration did not carry out, and which would take years before they would produce results. Washington so sent indirect signals to China that he did not want to confront: compared to US$60 billion of aid to Ukraine, he allocated only US$2 billion for military spending in the Pacific; during his gathering with China's leader, J. Biden reiterated his assurance of the US' attachment to China's policies, but agreed not to mention the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
The US besides faces interior obstacles to its trade policy. J. Biden planned to announce at the San Francisco summit a trade component of the Indo-Pacific economical Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) which is an initiative to replace the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) created by Barack Obama a disassembled by Donald Trump. Compared to TPP, IPEF is simply a much more modest project: it was intended to cover mainly any advanced technologies and delicate products like medicines and natural materials. His announcement at the APEC summit was to show to Beijing that Washington is capable of gaining allies not only in the military but besides in the economical sphere, separating from China specified crucial in strategically crucial production chains countries as India, Australia, Japan, Vietnam.
However, just before the San Francisco summit, US authorities suspended negotiations on IPEF, as its trading component was vetoed by democratic congressmen specified as Sherrod Brown with the threatened deindustrialisation of Ohio. They are afraid about the 2016 reruns erstwhile Hilary Clinton lost her votes in the crisis-threatening "swing states" following a TPP push. In those states, including Ohio, J. Biden steps down in polls to Donald Trump with the possible of presidential election in early November 2024.
The fear of the anti-globalistic electoral revolt of "blue collars" thus stops Washington from utilizing the interior marketplace as a lever to gain the support of another capitals. The remaining IPEF participants were not enthusiastic about the project, but they accepted it, hoping for greater access to the US interior market. Also, the advanced costs of the chip war for China so far will prompt Beijing to effort not to escalate tensions in relations with the US. While the United States needs a "strategic pause" in relations with China today, China needs an "economic pause". Xi Jinping and Joe Biden's gathering on the occasion of the San Francisco summit did not make a position for this, but both leaders clearly sought not to escalate the rivalry between the powers.
Ronald Lasecki
photo Wikipedia Commons
Think Poland, No. 49-50 (3-10.12.2023)
