Election results! What polling area predicted it best?

We already know the results of the 2023 parliamentary elections in Poland. What can you say? The turnout amazed polling just like the winter of Polish drivers. The final distribution of votes shall be as follows:

- The United Right 35.38%

- Citizens' Coalition. 30.7%

- The 3rd Road 14.4%

- fresh Left 8.61%

- Confederation. 7.16%

How did the polls do?

As I wrote in the introduction, attendance at 74.38% in the parliamentary election was not foreseen by any poll, in which small was over 70%. This does not change the fact that the very mediocre consequence of the most accurate company in erstwhile elections – Kantaru is rather a surprise. In the table below, I present the full mistake of the last poll before the poller's election.

New criteria for calculating the survey average on our website.

We stay on the weighted average method, which includes only the latest survey of the chosen laboratory in a given month. The highest weight is 1, but since October of this year each additional 5 pp. full mistake is 0.2 grams lower. Cantar Public and CBOS stay uncounted for average due to being outliers. This is how the results show:

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