- On Sunday 9 February 2025, citizens of Kosovo elected fresh parliamentarians. It was a key test for Prime Minister Albin Kurti, whose organization Self-determination She had a decisive triumph in erstwhile elections. He himself described this year's vote as a "referendum"—or a complete triumph Self-determination or the return of the ‘traditional’ parties to power [1].
- Eventually Self-determination it besides achieved the best consequence in this year's elections. However, worse – than the 1 achieved 4 years ago – by 10 p.m. the consequence may mean that the organization must decision to the opposition.
- The fresh government will gotta focus on a number of national and abroad challenges in order to meet the expectations of the youngest in Europe's age (55% under 30).
- The United States will play an crucial function in the process of forming fresh power. Donald Trump's return will exacerbate US force on Kosovo to normalize relations with Serbia. This means Washington's confrontational position towards Kurti, already expressed by "the Trump man" in the Balkans, Richard Grenell.
This year's parliamentary elections confirm the expanding organization stableness of the young state. For the first time since independency in 2008, the vote took place in accordance with the electoral calendar, i.e. 4 years after the erstwhile election. The parliamentary elections to date were held only on an exceptional basis, due to the resignation of the head of government or a vote of no confidence.
Kosovo electoral system
The Republic of Kosovo is simply a multiparty republic in which executive power is exercised by the Prime Minister's government. The president is elected by parliament and has limited prerogatives.
Kosovo has a single-cameral parliament consisting of 120 MPs elected in the general election, carried out on the basis of proportional ordination while maintaining the 5% electoral threshold. 20 seats are reserved for constitutional national minorities, including: 10 for representatives of Serbs, 4 for Roma, Aschels and Egyptians (total), 3 for Bosnians, 2 for Turks and 1 for Gorans.
Constitutional changes in Kosovo are not possible without the support of at least 2 thirds of the votes of national minorities. The function of Serbian MPs is so crucial. In this year's elections most likely (still no authoritative results are given – the destiny of 1 of the mandates for the Serbian minority, who will receive a typical of the Serbian List or organization for Freedom, Justice and Survival) all 10 seats owned by this national group were assigned to the Serbian List (serbian List). Srpska List). The organization is facing allegations that it is full dependent on Serbia's president Alexandar Vučicia. Since November 2022, it boycotted the government in Pristina and the Kosovian institutions. The February 9 election was the first in 2 years in which the Serbian List took part. However, her presence on the ballots was uncertain. Initially, the Central Election Commission refused to approve the party's participation in the elections due to strong links with Serbia and the deficiency of designation of the presence of the Republic of Kosovo. This decision provoked criticism from the EU, the US and Russia. Finally, the Committee on Complaints and Election Appeals accepted the appeal of the Serbian List and allowed it to participate in the parliamentary elections.
In addition to representatives of national minorities, as a consequence of the elections on 9 February, representatives of the following parties joined Parliament:
- Self-Determination Movement (Alb. Lëvision Vetëvendosje, LVV) – left-wing organization ruling Kosovo for the last 4 years. Its leader is Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Created in 2005, it derives from street protests against elites and widespread corruption [2]. It besides constituted a protest movement against UN missions (UNMIK) and the EU (EULEX). Proclaiming anti-establishment, anti-corruption and criticizing negotiations with Serbia under the auspices of the West, Self-determination the increasing support of Kosovo's citizens tired of the regulation of conventional parties, namely PDK, LDK and AAK. In this year's elections, representatives of 2 tiny groups, Alternativa and Guxo, besides competed from the LVV list. The founder of the second is Vjos Osmani, the current president of Kosovo. Self-determination frequently refers to the ideals of Albanian unionism. During this year's run Kurti photographed a contour map of alleged large Albania, and at organization rallies it was easier to find an Albanian flag than a Cossack flag. The organization is peculiarly popular among many Kosovo diaspora [3].
- Democratic organization of Kosovo (Alb. Party Democratike e Kosovës, PDK) – centre-right organization formed in 1999 as the political wing of the Kosovo Liberation Army (alb. Ushtria Çlirimtare e Kosovës, UÇK). For the first 16 years, the group was headed by Hashim Thaçi – president from 2016 to 2020, and during the Kosovo War a political leader of the UÇK. In 2020, he was charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity by the Prosecutor's Office of the Kosovo peculiar Court Chamber in The Hague. In this year's election, the PDK candidate for Prime Minister was Bedri Hamza, erstwhile Minister of Finance. In this context, the group's run entitled “Kosovo can do better” (Alb. Kosova mundet më mirë) referred primarily to economical issues. Hamza announced, among others, a 50% increase in wages in the first months of his office as head of government [4].
- Democratic League of Kosovo (Alb. Lidhja Democratike e Kosovës, LDK) – a centre organization formed in 1989 by Ibrahim Rugova, making it the oldest political organization in the country. In the 1990s, referring to peaceful methods in the fight for independence, it was an alternate to the UÇK. This year the LDK candidate for Prime Minister was Lumir Abdixhiku. The run he led was based on an election program entitled "New Way" (Alb. Ruruga e re), whose content focused on the subject of national unity and the pursuit of a better economical situation of the state. The LDK besides advocates a more coherent approach to dialog with Serbia. [5]
- Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (Alb. Aleanca për Ardhmërinë e Kosovës, AAK) – a right-wing group established in 2001, having strong connotations with the Kosovo Liberation Army. organization leader Ramush Haradinaj was an influential UÇK activist, like Jakup Krasniqi, i.e. the head of the NISMA Alliance (in 2020 he was charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the Kosovo War). In 2021, Haradinaj (who held the position of head of the order from 2004 to 2005 and 2017 to 2020) called for a referendum on the unification of Kosovo with Albania [6]. In this year's campaign, the Alliance focused on the request to introduce the state to NATO and economical policy. In the election program, the organization announced, among others, an increase in the average wage to EUR 1000 and a minimum pension of EUR 500 [7].
The election results and the number of seats received in the parliament are as follows (after the votes of 99.7% of the constituency):
Figure 1: Results of the Kosovo parliamentary elections (data from 99.7% of committees)
Figure 2: Distribution of parliamentary seats (as estimated)
Movement Self-Determination: 40.8% (47 deputies)
Democratic organization of Kosovo: 22.1% (25)
Democratic League of Kosovo: 17.7% (20)
Alliance for the Future of Kosovo: 7.5% (8)
Serbian List: 4.6% (9/10)
Other parties of national minorities: 4.8% (10/11)
The election turnout was 40.6%, or about 8 pp. little than the evidence one, recorded in the 2021 election.
Problems Self-determination
Prior to the elections, Albin Kurti announced that it was not possible for him to form a coalition with another parties. The aim, therefore, was to gain so many seats in parliament to be able to regulation alone (possibly with the support of individual Members from national minorities, as was the case in the erstwhile term). The Prime Minister expected his organization to get a better score than 4 years ago (more than 438,000 votes, which translated into 50.28%). This year's goal was to receive half a million votes [8]. However, this consequence was not achieved – about 350 1000 voters voted for LVV.
Following the publication of the preliminary results, the leadership of the Democratic organization of Kosovo declared its readiness to cooperate with the parties of the opposition to date, while stating that the PDK would not make a coalition with Self-determination [9]. Ramush Haradinaj, AAK leader besides powerfully rejected the anticipation of cooperation with Kurti [10]. In specified a situation kingsaver becomes the Democratic League of Kosovo. This organization had already co-founded a government coalition with LVV in 2020. However, during this year's electoral campaign, LDK representatives powerfully criticized Kurti's cabinet, rejecting possible post-election cooperation. This group together with the PDK forms a coalition in any cities specified as Peja. Therefore, it seems that this organization is closer to forming a fresh government from LDK and AAK than to Self-determination. The Serbian List may besides decide to cooperate with conventional parties, friendly about normalization of relations with Serbia. This arrangement of forces puts Kurti's camp in an highly hard situation. Self-determination It has 47 seats in parliament, according to current estimates, which means that even with the support of non-Serbian representatives of national minorities, LVV will deficiency a majority vote, i.e. at least 61 deputies.
US impact on Kosovo
Faced with a fresh change of power in the US, the question arises as to how the formation process of the fresh cabinet will be affected by the position of the American administration. During the election campaign, Richard Grenell, U.S. President's envoy Donald Trump for peculiar missions, considered to be a "Trump man" in the Balkans (in 2019-2021 he held the position of the president's peculiar envoy for peace negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo), harshly criticized Albin Kurti, stating that his government was "untrustworthy" and that he himself repeatedly took "unilateral actions that destabilise the region". He besides warned the Kosovoans not to be “deluded” [11]. This opinion was treated as a clear signal from the fresh American administration to Kosovo voters. This was not the first item of the gap between Grenell and the prime minister of Kosovo – erstwhile in 2020 Kurti's government had to step down as a consequence of a vote of no confidence, Grenell was accused of organizing a conspiracy against his power.
A confrontational attitude towards Kurti (who in the American election run openly supported Kamala Harris) may have a real impact on the form of Kosovo's policy after the election. This is peculiarly crucial because, as the Kosovan analysts poetically write, Kosovo without the United States is like “a man without oxygen” [12]. The US is the largest ally and guarantor of the independency of this country.
The challenge for the fresh power in Pristina will be the approach of the fresh American administration to global relations in the Balkans. The United States can favour Serbia, as evidenced by Grenell's open support for president Aleksandar Vučic in the era of ongoing student protests, as well as the engagement of American investors (including Jared Kushner, or Donald Trump's son-in-law), in a improvement task in Belgrade [13].
Without doubt, Trump's return will exacerbate US force on Kosovo to normalize relations with Serbia. This goal will be hard to accomplish if Albin Kurti is at the head of the government. No crucial advancement has been made in normalising relations between Serbia and Kosovo in the past term. Moreover, in the area of northern Kosovo, mostly inhabited by the Serbs, the largest organization crisis has begun, which continues until today, for respective years. The escalation of the crisis in Kosovo-Serbian relations is not surprising, given that Kurti gained popularity and yet came to power, proclaiming the request for a confrontational policy towards Belgrade.
It is very likely that, as in Trump's first term, the subject of the exchange of territories between these Balkan countries will return to the environment of the president of the United States. This thought was supported by the PDK at the head of then-president Hashim Thaçim, but was powerfully rejected by LVV. This is besides why the fresh American administration may like the return to the power of conventional parties specified as PDK and LDK. Her sympathy is besides enjoyed by Ramush Haradinaj, the leader of AAK, who met with Grenell in January [14].
In view of the above, there is much evidence that the fresh government will form existing opposition parties that will focus on improving relations with the United States. However, given the deficiency of consistent declarations on the form of the future government coalition in the post-election week, long negotiations between parties can be expected. Many divisions can lead to instability of the fresh government. It is besides crucial that, at the turn of February and March next year, indirect presidential elections will be held in Kosovo. If not available Consensus among the deputies and the failure of 1 of the candidates to support more than half of the Chamber, in accordance with Article 86(6) of the Constitution, Parliament will be dissolved. This will mean accelerated parliamentary elections.
[1] KTV- KOHAVISION, Kurti në Deçan – 9 shkurti është ditë referendumi dhe jo zgjedhjesh | KTV, https://www.youtube.com/embed/XlEWL4cOVR0, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[2] Marta Szpała, Kosovo: movement of protest in power, https://www.osw.waw.pl/publications/analysis/2020-02-05/koso-move-protest-u-power, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[3] Kosovo Online, Diaspora as the “Golden Vote” in the Elections, https://www.kosovo-online.com/en/news/analysis/diaspora-golden-vote-elections-10-11-2024, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[4] Telegrafi, Committees to the economy at the center of the election run in Kosovo, https://telegrafi.com/en/zotimet-per-economice-ne-qender-te-fushates-zgjedhore-ne-kosove/, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[5] Nacionale, Abdixhiku shpalos sot 100 designet e “Rrugës së Re”, https://nacionale.com/politike/abdixhiku-shpalos-sot-100-projecte-e-rudges-se-re?tztc=1, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[6] FoNet, Haradinaj: Tražiću referendum on ujedinjju Kosova sa Albanians 2025. godine, https://www.danas.rs/vesti/politika/haradinaj-trazac-referendum-o-ujedinjenju-kosova-sa-albanijom-2025-godine/, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[7] Paparaci, Programi and AAK-Nisma coalition: Anëtarësim direkt në NATO, paga mesatare jo nën 1000 euro, https://paparaci.com/463066/programi-i-koalicionit-aak-nisma-anetaresim-direkt-ne-nato-paga-mesatare-jo-nen-1000-euro/, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[8] Nen Si, p.m. Kurti: We will not request post-election coalitions, https://eurnews.al/en/pm-kurti-we-will-not-need-post-election-coalitions/, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[9] Radio Evropa e Lirë, Çitaku: PDK-ja s’bën coalition me VV-në, preferred coalition me opozitën, https://www.evropaelire.org/a/pdk-sben-coalicion-me-vvv-citaku/33312486.html, accessed: 15.02.2025.
[10] Nga A2 CNN, Haradinaj closes the door to Vetevendosje: We will work for an opposition government, https://a2news.com/english/shqiperia/politike/haradinaj-i-mbyll-deren-vetevendosjes-do-te-punojme-per-nje-q-i1140051, accessed: 15.02.2025.
[11] Nen Si, Grenell powerfully Attacks Kurti: “He Is Not Trustworthy for the U.S., Don’t Be Deceived”, https://eurnews.al/en/grenell-strongy-attacks-kurti-he-is-not-trustworthy-for-the-u-s-dont-be-deceived/, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[12] Insider, Kosovo without the United States of America is like a man without oxygen, https://surl.li/xujjwb, accessed: 7.22.2025.
[13] Fron Nahzi, Trump’s ‘Americana First’ Agenda Risks Leaving Kosovo Isolated, https://balkaninsight.com/2025/02/02/13/trumps-america-first-agenda-risks-leaving-kosovo-isolated/, accessed: 15.02.2025.
[14] Kosovo Online, Haradinaj: Grenell confirmed to me that it will not be good for Kosovo if Kurti restores in power, https://www.kosovo-online.com/en/news/elections/haradinaj-grenell-confirmed-me-it-will-not-be-good-kosovo-if-kurti-remains-power-25, accessed: 7.22.2025.
