Recommendations on electoral tourism must be based on 2 basic elements – the estimated number of seats in the constituency for which we support the list and the vote in the constituency understood as the average number of votes in the constituency per mandate
In my recommendations I follow 1 iron regulation – if individual decides to leave and vote in another constituency, he votes for the same organization for which he would give his vote where he lives. Electoral tourism must be neutral for national support for individual opposition lists.
When deciding to vote in another constituency, vote in it for the candidate you are convinced of. Take the time to compare candidates in the constituency where you vote.
The advice is based on the state of cognition at the end of the day 11.10.20203.
Anyone making a decision to vote in another constituency must be aware that its decision may contribute to a decrease in the support of his preferred list in the constituency from which he leaves, which may consequence in little seats being earned in that constituency by the organization he supports. The direction of electoral tourism is chosen so that the likelihood that this vote will contribute to an increase in the number of seats in the mark territory is greater than the likelihood of the failure of a seat in the constituency.
Civil Coalition – 12.10.2023
In 2019, the Civic Coalition, with a nationwide score of 27.4% won 134 tickets.
Number of votes (in thousands) won in constituency by the Civic Coalition and number of mandates (colours) obtained in the 2019 Sejm election.
A large concentration of voters of the Civic Coalition in the metropolitan districts specified as Warsaw, Poznań, Gdańsk, Wrocław, where there is usually a higher turnout, and the number of seats frequently does not correspond to demographic changes, caused the number of votes per mandate to be high. In the case of KOs in many regions of anticipation for which the mandate is fighting, they are burdened with a major error. In the recommendations of electoral tourism for this organization I focus on the Warsaw district, where the vote is the smallest, and the affirmative effect in the form of additional parliamentary mandates is based on a mass and concentrated vote in the mark districts, where there is much support for the Law and Justice.
District 19 Warsaw and abroad
Warsaw is the most crucial component of electoral tourism strategy. In 2019, 581,000 votes cast into KO in territory 19 translated into 9 MPs. In the Siedle district, which begins in Sulejówek, 270 1000 votes for the Law and Justice besides gave this organization 9 MPs. The unequal vote between the constituency destroys the sense of election, where everyone should have 1 equal vote. Voters in Warsaw and abroad have a de facto only half vote. In order for the Varsovians’ vote to be equally crucial in these elections, they must go, vote for another Mazovian districts — No. 18 of the settlers and No. 17 of Radom.
In this election of voters in territory 19 will be even more than 4 years ago. 608 1000 Poles registered to vote in the upcoming elections in abroad commissions. Turnout in voting abroad is about 90%, which means that we can anticipate 550 1000 votes added to the Warsaw territory in these elections. That's 236 1000 votes more than the pollonia vote in 2019.
The Warsaw City Office stated in a communication issued on 10 October that about 140 1000 people were added to the Warsaw census, 4 years ago it was 50,000 people. Only for this reason will 60,000 people vote more in Warsaw than in 2019. In summing up the effect of more voters abroad and more people who have contributed to the list of voters, we can estimation that only for these 2 reasons there will be about 300 1000 more voters in Warsaw. If the Warsawians voted on October 15 as they voted in 2019, we could anticipate 1.7 million votes. The voting force in territory 19 would further weaken from 69 000 votes per mandate to 85 000 votes per mandate.
To sum up these calculations – we know present that in territory 19 we can anticipate 300,000 additional voters compared to 2019. Even if 300,000 KO voters left Warsaw, there would have been as many voters in territory 19 as 4 years ago.
Recommendation for KO voters from territory 19 – Warsaw, is simply a mass departure to territory 18 – Siedlce, and territory 17 – Radom. By the 5th mandate in territory 20, the fight between the KO and the PiS is being fought in Podwarszawskie and the consequence may be determined by individual votes. Our advice is to support this fight with election tourism from Warsaw.
We cannot find how many KO voters will decide to leave Warsaw. The baseline script assumes the departure of 100,000 people. The departure to both the Siedle territory and the Radom territory is equally likely to get another mandate for KO. I propose the following by place of residence:
– KO voters who have chosen to vote outside Warsaw, surviving in right-wing Warsaw and in the districts of Śródmieście, Wola, Żoliborz, should choose a vote in territory no 18 – Siedlce.
– KO voters who have chosen to vote outside Warsaw, surviving in the districts of Bemowo, Mokotów, Ochota, Ursus, Ursynów, Wilanów, Italy, should choose to vote in territory 17 – Radom
– KO voters who have chosen to vote outside Warsaw, surviving in the Bielany district, should choose a vote in territory no. 20 – Podwarszawski.
Practical remark on the legislature elections
There are 3 legislature districts in territory 18 of Siedlce. There is no legislature Pact candidate in this nearest Warsaw. This is simply a territory that did not forecast a chance for a senatorial mandate, there you can vote against the Law and Justice organization candidates. If individual wants to vote for a legislature Pact candidate, you can go further from Warsaw and vote in 1 of the another 2 legislature districts, which coincide with the 18th Sejm District. This is indicated on the following map:
Senate districts in Sejm territory 18, where you can vote for the legislature Pact candidate
District 20 Podwarszawski
In the Podwarszaw district, historically the election results were akin to national averages. Support for KO and PiS is almost equal and it is hard to foretell which list will have more votes in territory no. 20. The division of 12 seats is rather predictable – Left, 3rd Road and Confederacy, with support of about 10% in the district, will get 1 mandata each. The another 9 will be divided between KO and PiS. Out of these two, the list that gets at least 1 vote more will get 5 tickets. For this reason, although it is simply a low-voice constituency, KO voters surviving in this territory should vote at the place of residence.
District 13 Kraków
In this constituency, KO has unchangeable support to get 5 mandates. KO voters can support the fight for another mandate for KO in territory 15 – Tarnów.
Districts 4 Bydgoszcz, 5 Toruń and 37 Konin
In the districts of the Kujawsko-Pomorskie Voivodeship, KO has unchangeable support for 5 seats in Bydgoszcz and 4 seats in Toruń. KO voters who want to support their group in the fight for further tickets should go south and choose territory 37 Konin. There is simply a chance for KO to get another ticket at the expense of the Law and Justice.
Other urban districts – Wrocław, Poznań, Łódź
In districts with these large KO cities, he fights for tickets. Based on the volume of voice alone, which for these districts is smaller than the national average, suggests going to neighboring districts. However, in a situation where specified a failure of KO voters would consequence in a failure of mandate, the hazard is besides high. The advice for KO voters in the districts of No. 3 Wrocław, No. 9 Łódź, No. 39 Poznań is to vote at the place of residence.
Other districts
For the another constituency, it is hard to foretell the impact of electoral tourism on the consequence counted in the mandates for the KO. Our advice is to vote at home.
Practical actions
If, after reading these recommendations, you want to vote for the Civic Coalition in another constituency, choice the candidate you will vote for in the constituency.
For election tourism to be effective, information about the advice must scope the widest possible audience. This is only possible erstwhile actively promoting this information among voters of a given political option.
If you know another people with the same political beliefs, share this information with them. The journey together will save you travel costs.
Summary – civilian Coalition
The Civic Coalition is simply a group that can benefit most from electoral tourism in the Mazovia districts. Disparities in the volume of voice between Warsaw and the settlement and Radom districts are large adequate that mass tourism of KO voters to these districts, despite the advanced chances of losing 1 mandate in Warsaw (probably in favour of another list of opposition) will translate into at least 2 additional mandates in districts where the KO voters will go.
Recommendations besides include a script for the departure of KO voters from these districts, where, with the current expected support, the likelihood of obtaining another mandate is low, to those districts where the likelihood of obtaining another mandate increases with the establishment of additional KO voters from another districts.
