This imagination of the future is bleak. “Who else or what else can save peace?” they ask in “The study on Peace 2025” the leading German scientists dealing with peace and conflict research. Wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan, over 122 million refugees, many violent conflicts around the world: since 1987, scientists from 4 investigation institutes have been analyzing global conflicts and making recommendations for decision-makers all year. However, the "Peace Report" was seldom as pessimistic as the latest one, which was presented on Monday (02.06.2025) in Berlin.
– In fresh years, the center of our analysis has been the Russian attack on Ukraine and the deliberate demolition of the European peace and safety order by Russia," said Christopher Daase of the Leibniz Peace investigation Institute during the presentation of the report. He added that the safety situation has late deteriorated further, and another origin in uncertainty is the US policy.
Hard criticism of Donald Trump
This year's study focuses mainly on political change in the United States, and its conclusions are sharp. U.S. president Donald Trump and "his MEGA movement" managed to "in a very short time and without much resistance" transform the world's oldest democracy into an authoritarian regime," researchers write.
They besides see the drive to "destroy liberal institutions and achievements" at global level. "Authoritarian leaders and dictators are admitted to salons and right-wing populist movements in liberal democracies receive support," he stated. Conflict investigator Christopher Daase sees the danger of “an infection with authoritarianism”. There are already worrying trends in Europe, specified as questioning global jurisdiction, questioning academic freedom and interfering with the autonomy of social actors specified as churches.
Is NATO dead?
The study states that the transatlantic partnership with the US "as we know it is coming to an end". According to researchers, this besides applies to military cooperation. "The credibility of NATO's defence obligations has been shaken, and approximation between the US and Russia can take place at the expense not only of Ukraine but besides of European interests," we read.
This represents a direct threat to Germany and Europe. “We have a problem with the fact that nothing can be done now without NATO, and that is why no 1 truly wants to talk about NATO’s end, although the basis of common values is long gone,” says Daase, who does not deny the question of whether NATO is dead. In his opinion, work is ongoing on "overcoming NATO", which means working together within the Alliance as long as possible and at the same time strengthening European capabilities.
Europeans must stick together
The study recommends that the German government operate according to a "transparent plan for the gradual expansion and integration of European defence structures". However, the European Union is inactive far from achieving this objective. "What we are presently seeing in the EU is not a strengthening of European defence capabilities within the political framework of the European Union, but alternatively a strengthening of national defence capabilities of EU associate States," says Ursula Schroeder of the Institute for Peace investigation and safety Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH).
Security should besides not be understood solely in a military sense. safety architecture besides includes "armour control, assurance building measures and diplomacy," stresses Conrad Schetter of the global Center for Conflict Studies in Bonn (BICC). An effective improvement policy is besides important. Moreover, the reinforced arms policy should not become a "free licence to export arms worldwide".
Criticism of arms supply to Israel
In their report, researchers express peculiar concern about the global erosion of global law. The increasing “dehumanisation of war activities” can be observed, where civilian protection, hospitals and schools are powerfully disregarded and humanitarian aid is prevented or instrumentalised for political purposes. This is seen peculiarly drastically during the Russian war against Ukraine and Israel's war against Hamas.
Researchers are alerting that the war in the Gaza Strip has already cost over 53,000 lives and has mostly destroyed the area. They besides call for the cessation of any arms supply that could be utilized in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Israel has "disturbably" violated global humanitarian law and "crossed the limits of legitimate self-defence," the authors of the "Peace Report".
From October 2023 to May 2025, almost half a billion euros worth of arms were allowed to be exported from Germany, as reported by the German government in consequence to the intervention of the Left Parliamentary Club in the Bundestag. Deliveries included firearms, ammunition, weapon parts, peculiar equipment for the military and naval, electronic equipment and peculiar armored vehicles.
International law beyond the right of state
The study calls on the German government to respect global jurisdiction. Researchers mention to the statements of CDU leader Friedrich Merz from the time before he became Chancellor of Germany. After winning the election, Merz announced that he wanted to invitation Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Germany, despite being the subject of an arrest warrant issued by the global Criminal Court.
Merz promised that he would find “the means and means” so Netanjahu “could visit Germany and leave again without being arrested in Germany”. The study states: "International law takes precedence over state reasons". This "would exclude a state visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Germany until further notice".
Researchers besides call on Germany to take action to recognise the Palestinian state "in the average term". A lasting solution to the conflict "would in no way limit Israel's right to a judaic state within safe borders."
