The governing coalition, consisting of the civilian Coalition (KO), The 3rd Way and the Left have raised many emotions and questions since the beginning of the Sejm's term. Will she last until the end of her term, or until 2027? The latest United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland brings answers that may surprise you.
Coalition ruling in the opinion of Poles: most believe in its sustainability
According to a survey conducted on 20-22 December 2024, 58.4% of respondents believes that the ruling coalition will last until the end of the term. Among them 20.6% replied ‘Definitely yes’ and 37.8% "I think so." This is optimistic data for the supporters of Donald Tusk's government.
But not everyone is so sure. 30.6% of subjects claims that the coalition will fall apart before the end of the term. In this group 25% it replied ‘no’ and 5.6% – “Definitely not”. In addition 11% The questions admitted that there was no opinion on the subject.
Coalition voters vs. opposition: differences in perception of government's future
Interesting conclusions come from the analysis of responses by electorates. Up to 90% of the ruling coalition voters (KO, 3rd Way, Left) is convinced that the government will last until the end of its term. The other is only 6% supporters of these parties.
This is completely different among opposition voters. Just 14% Law and Justice (PiS) sympathizers and Confederacy believe in the endurance of the coalition. 69% of which he believes the government will fall apart by 2027. In a group of indecisive voters 60% optimistic about the future of the coalition, while 22% He's against it.
The Tusk Coalition without a majority in the Sejm? investigation Partner Results
Another survey by investigation Partner shows that if elections were held next Sunday, United Right She'd get 31% support, overtaking Civil Coalition with consequence 29.3%. In 3rd place, she'd be Confederation au 13.3% Voices. Third Road (coalition of Poland 2050 and PSL) 8.9%, a Left – 7.1%. another groups would not exceed the threshold 3% support.
The conversion of the results into mandates shows that United Right She'd get 180 seats in the Sejm, Civil Coalition – 159, Confederation – 62, Third Road – 37, a Left – 22. This means that the current ruling coalition would have combined 218 mandates, while opposition parties (PiS and Confederation) – 242. This shows that the ruling coalition could lose the majority in the Sejm if the elections were held today.
What about the ruling coalition? Future prospects
Although most Poles believe in surviving the coalition until the end of the term, the results of the investigation Partner poll indicate possible threats. The absence of a majority in the Sejm could impede the governance and implementation of political plans. Additionally, differences in perception of the future of the coalition between its voters and supporters of the opposition show how divided Polish society is.
Will the ruling coalition last until 2027? The answer to this question depends on many factors, including the interior coherence of the coalition, the political situation in the country and social sentiments. 1 thing is certain – the future of the coalition will be 1 of the key topics in Polish politics in the coming years.
Source: United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland and investigation Partner survey, conducted on 20-22 December 2024 on a typical example of 1,000 people.
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Will the ruling coalition last until 2027? The results of the latest poll surprise!
