Why is Putin annoying Trump?

myslpolska.info 7 hours ago

In view of the inefficiency of the diplomatic efforts of Western states to end the war in Ukraine, it can be concluded pessimistic that we are facing the hazard of a "long war", which can be expressed in various forms of "freezing conflict" and in the absence of clear settlements.

This hazard is akin to 3 intertwined situational contexts: Ukrainian, Western and Russian. The first concerns Ukraine's determination to end the conflict in victory. It comes not so much from ideology, but from makiawelism and the calculating of the rulers. Even erstwhile the war is interrupted, there are many indications that Ukrainian oligarchs, front commanders and political machers who specialize in war crafts and coconuts on war deals will not easy give way, nor will they accept forced, unjust compromises. It is so in their interest to keep confrontation. The suffering of civilians is far-reaching.

War corrupts

It is simply a certain regularity, observed during long-term armed conflicts, that the demoralisation caused by war in all the circles of social life hinders the effective transition to peacetracks. The massive harm in the form of destruction, victims and escapes of the population abroad, yet disorganizing the economy and administration, makes it hard to return to normality. The democratic legitimacy of the fresh authorities and their ability to keep the unity of the state and social consent are at stake. Restoring the functionality of the political strategy is never easy erstwhile it is contaminated by dictatorial practices.

Moreover, the war in Ukraine strengthened, alternatively than weakened, the “cumoter” arrangement of oligarchical capitalism, which is silent in the West. Yet, this origin will find the future political form of Ukraine, which the European Union would like to adopt on peculiar terms with all its wealth of inventory. Why do Polish politicians, apart from fewer exceptions, not see any problems that are harmful to Polish interests in the accession of EU and Natov Ukraine?

Finally, the nationalist reinforcement in Ukraine must not be overlooked, which is simply a consequence of the creation of pathological national identity, based on the flag symbolism. The consent of Western Ukrainian protectors to the glorification of fascist formations and the mythology of the “national liberation movement” from the OUN-UPA sign dares governments in Kiev to abandon the settlement of acts of genocide in Poles and Jews from the russian and Nazi occupations. The authoritative lie of past and the construction of false narratives shows that Ukraine disregards the basic civilizational standards of the democratic planet to which it is happy to join. It is simply a pity that this democratic world, allegedly delicate to human rights and humanitarian values, is approaching Kiev with specified incredible indulgence. After all, Rusophobia cannot justify the barbarism of planet War II. Unsolved crimes from the past are a recurring memento, a informing that they may 1 day be repeated (Tadeusz Samborski).

The Western context is ambiguous in the light of the ongoing overestimation in the American administration. On the 1 hand, the conflict in Ukraine is inactive a manifestation of the war over the russian Union, between Western forces and Russia. Capital and material investments in the army and the Ukrainian economy are crucial arguments for the request to defend the acquired state of ownership. On the another hand, it is experimenting with fresh weapons and weapons for the purposes of upgrading powerful arsenals on both sides of the confrontation. The Ukrainian Army is deliberately presented here as the most experienced in modern combat operations. The lives of Ukrainian soldiers and blood sacrifice are subordinate to the instrumental goals of Ukrainian protectors. Experience is the main factor: the effects of adapting to fresh strategical and tactical assumptions and ways of acquiring method skills.

Although the U.S. president managed to change, though not necessarily reverse, the communicative about the causes and culprits of the war in Ukraine, however, many conceptual and decision-making inconsistencies and the submission of the weapons device lead his policy astray. It may shortly turn out that America is returning to the old rails of accusations against Russia, and the annoyed Trump is already giving opinions about his disappointment of Putin's deficiency of concessions. This will be entering the next phase of the American-Russian confrontation.

Thus, the war in Ukraine will not end without the explicit will to suspend Western aid to Ukraine. This, on the another hand, is determined by NATO and the European Union's choice of a strategy for economical growth by maximising armaments. A re-conversion of the declining manufacture in Europe for war purposes was put forward. The United States, on the another hand, is at stake in maintaining hegemon status. The longer the war takes in Ukraine, the longer there will be a valid justification for specified a strategy.

Russia cements the West

Engagement in conflict against Russia yet plays a consolidating function in the unstable and divided societies of states of neoliberal capitalism. As anti-system forces are becoming increasingly active in Western Europe and in the United States, a bogeyman is needed as an external enemy. For a reason, the demonization of Russia and Putin is ongoing, resulting in the psychosis of the impending Russian invasion of NATO states. Polish pro-war mobilization is besides an expression of this.

The Russian context is in this conflict subjected to the top criticism, both by politicians and the dominant media. Everyone noticed that Russia, due to the vitality of its safety interests, does not intend to retreat from the war without achieving its stated objectives – disarmament, denazification and neutralisation of Ukraine. Contrary to expectations, denazification and change of power in Kiev may not be possible, as consciousnessal and ideological changes have gone very far. During the war, the national "epopey" of heroic-martyrology, based on the flag ethos, had already developed. This will advance the maintenance of false justifications of war by the debtors of Western support and hostages.

It is crucial that the West tolerates the rebirth of Ukrainian nationalism and builds the national identity of Ukrainians based on fascist and racist traditions, it would appear to be completely compromised in the eyes of global opinion. OUN-UPA cult gains justification due to Russian aggression and rusophobia, but in the long run it discredits Ukrainians, as well as all Western protectors of false ideology. It is simply a pity that the rulers in Poland do not see this hideous manipulation. respect is due to those politicians who have the courage to call things by name.

Russia defends primarily the rationality of the decision to invade Ukraine, as 2 American realists John Mearsheimer and Sebastian Rosato point out in their book. Rationality in abroad Policy”, Warsaw 2024). Putin and his advisors decided not to let Ukraine to become a bastion of the West, which would pose a deadly threat to Russia. In the Russian interpretation, shared by political realists, the Russians launched a war of prevention in self-defense to prevent the deterioration of the relation of forces between their country and the wider West, with the United States at the head.

No way out?

As all parties stick to their rations, the conflict in Ukraine is becoming insoluble. Above all, there has been a immense loop of narratives of each of them, depriving them of their ability to search political solutions. In the case of the West and Ukraine itself, we are faced with denial of facts and stubbornness of persevering with false assumptions about the anticipation of defeating Russia on the battlefield. This is simply a peculiar temptation for various charlatans and instigators of war who prey on fear and desire for retaliation.

Prolongation of war is simply a waste of time, energy and resources, and, above all, of bleeding out conflicted parties. possibly that's what the cynical and calculating game of sponsors of this war is all about. Only a fewer leaders, specified as Viktor Orbán, are able to rationalize strategical reasoning and point to both false diagnosis and damaging prospects. Further feeding on the illusions of a victorious war for Kiev brings all sides closer to the inevitable disaster.

The Russians realise that in the West, the image of their country was created as a origin of threat to global governance, in which the rules of the game are dictated by the same "collective" West. That is why a national consensus is so important, which Putin has achieved on the fundamental values that find the defence of vital interests. The Russians are convinced that they have regained the position of a sovereign power that does not gotta meet the expectations of America and its vassals.

According to Sergey Karaganov, 1 of the most celebrated contemporary "national idea" exponents, the most crucial accomplishment was the removal of Russian complexes from the West by the elite. We are not looking into the private relation between prominent figures of Russian political or economical life and Western countries. The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly become a natural catalyst for accelerating the "return to the East" and has increased the possible for alternate solutions in energy or arms markets. It has besides become a tool for preserving the cohesion of society and ensuring ideological legitimacy of power.

When considering Russia's "hard" position in the ongoing "rekonesans" of diplomatic action to halt the war, it should be noted that there is no concept of "compromise" in Russian strategical culture to settle disputes. The Russian failure is driven by a zero-sum game model. Faced with a smaller or weaker state, they are guided by the motive of their own win and imposing their point of view. An crucial function is played by ideological attitudes and intellectual conditions (e.g. the syndrome of a besieged fortress or the symbolization of war heroism).

In many countries, including Poland, there is simply a strong superstition that the condition for improving relations with Russia is its systemic conversion to the Western fashion. Meanwhile, this is an unfulfilled condition in the absence of political will by the Russians themselves. They are guided by cultural-civilization realism, which means defending their own model of the state and lifestyle. In this area, Russia finds broad support for the Global South, and even the various political forces in the West. Polish politicians and media manipulators do not have specified reasoning in their heads due to an anti-rational and irrational eclipse of minds.

Geopolitics of Fear

From many statements made by Russian officials there is simply a clear consensus that if the West refuses to accept Russia as it is, then at least it must be afraid of it. Russia is motivated to wage war as long as necessary. The paradox is that in specified an approach, all parties to the conflict put the geopolitics of fear and stalling. Russia continues to see the West as aggressive and expansive, while the Western states and their Euro-Atlantic groups – the European Union and NATO – are inactive at the optics of imperial Russia and hungry territorial conquests. Thus, the most hard to overcome are perceptional errors and communication interference between the disputed parties.

The belief that Russia respects only those stronger than itself is lost. Therefore, he understands only the language of force. Even if that is the case, it is the correctness of all powers. It is the strongest that threatens any country's sinister consequences if their interests collide. However, Russia can besides deal with smaller countries, which are determined to defend their own interests and realize the rationale of each party. This can be seen from bilateral relations not only with Hungary or Slovakia, but besides with many countries of the Global South, starting with BRICS+.

There are many indications that in the diplomatic game the Russians love to test the strength of the opponent and his determination to accomplish the goals. They themselves have a peculiar flexibility, expressed in the usage of ideological and propaganda grips, while at the same time pragmatic circumvention of the principles. Even in times of communist orthodoxy, the Russians negotiated many global agreements, guided by praxeology alternatively than doctrine. These features affect the image of Russia as a hard country to recognize, but besides an highly dangerous opponent. There is simply a reason in the area of cognition about negotiating cultures that if 1 of the participants in global negotiations is successful by negotiations with Russia, it will bring business to any another contractor.

The Future of the World

Eight decades of peace since the end of the Second planet War has excavated the Western political elite's perception of the problems of globalised capitalism and the increasing interior crises against the background of distribution of social wealth. Against specified a background, Russia appears not only as a competitive centre, defending conventional values and just, due to the fact that under the patronage of the state, the model of social life, but besides as a stabilizer – which is unabsorbed for professional rusophobes – peace and security. The opposition to hegemony in global relations is recognised by Russia as a clear task and nonsubjective of its global strategy.

Therefore, in view of the prospects of resolving the Ukrainian issue, it is crucial to bear in head the broader geopolitical conditions associated with balancing forces and interests on a global scale in order to prevent the global strategy from being wound up by 1 power with a group of its acolytes. Ukraine is just a pretext, and unfortunately a victim, in this confrontation. The vast majority of countries friendly to Russia, headed by China, are now in favour of specified a imagination of global governance in which countries will correct the rousing appetites of transnational corporations and limit oligarchical capitalism, preying on the masses of defenceless citizens.

Russia creates itself as a guarantor shaped in the last century and codified in the United Nations Charter, the principles of global law, especially sovereign equality and non-interference in the home affairs of states. It stresses its strengths of formal power status, specified as permanent membership of the UN safety Council and having atomic possible that is only comparable to the US potential. This legitimizes Russia's position in the ranks of the ranks that there is and will never be Ukraine.

For Western political elites, this is simply a hard situation to accept. While they are powerless against the emergence of China's power, they are traditionally opposed to it, even since the Tsarist Russia, to play the function of rival, blocking the expansion of the West towards the Eurasian direction. These are old complexes of European powers, especially the United Kingdom, as well as the US since the post-war era. Without knowing the antecedencies, it is impossible to realize the Western's strong commitment to the war on the Ukrainian side. It is not only about regaining lost positions, for example in Odessa or Donbasa after the Bolshevik Revolution, but blocking the reconstruction of Russia's power position in the russian space, as the main quarterback.

Admitting defeat in Ukraine for each organization of imperial confrontation would be an image and ambitious disaster. The game is about whether Russia will stand its ground erstwhile it comes to the indivisibility of security, and whether it will be reinstated in solving problems in the immediate neighbourhood, while at the same time distancing or even displacing Western powers. possibly from today's position this task seems impossible, but patience with respect to the "unsolveable" problem can pay in the long word erstwhile the fatigue of the West and the exhaustion of Ukraine will lead to its fresh arrangement with the Russian neighbour.

Prof. Stanisław Bielen

photo of The White House

Think Poland, No. 29-30 (20-27.07.2025)

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