There will be no second word of social politician Sanna Marin, who has been head of the centre-left coalition government in Finland since December 2019. On Sunday, April 2, the Conservative organization of the National Coalition won the election, winning 20.8% of the vote and 48 seats in parliament, ahead of the Nationalist organization of Finns, which won 20.1% (46 seats). For the Finn Party, this is the best score ever.
Marin lost despite expanding support
The Social Democrats took 3rd place with a score of 19.9% (43 seats). Although the Social Democratic Party, which had been at the head of the government so far, ranked 3rd in the election, Prime Minister Sanna Marin stressed that the organization had increased support compared to erstwhile elections. In 2019, the SDP won the election with 17.7 percent support, which brought her 40 seats in parliament. This time the SDP won 19.9 percent of the vote, which translates into 43 seats. Although this consequence is lower than expected, Sanna Marin thanked voters for their support and expressed respect for the democratic electoral process. Petteri Orpo, leader of the winning organization National Coalition, is 1 of the main candidates to take the position of Prime Minister. The triumph of the National Coalition is no surprise at all. The National Coalition organization has been leading the polls for almost 2 years, although its advantage has late begun to decline.
Figure 1 Photos from Yle news showing the electoral poll and the timetable of the eduscunt
Fin looks in his pocket
Before we analyse what has truly affected the "change of rudders" in Finland, it is worth looking at the electoral campaign, which will partially let us to realize what is crucial to Finns today. The election run in Finland was dominated by 2 key crises – the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war. Both of these crises have affected the cost of surviving in Finland, triggering an energy crisis and a sharp increase in inflation. In 2022 consumer prices grew at an exceptionally fast pace, reaching yearly inflation of 7.2%. advanced inflation is accompanied by declining economical growth – GDP only increased by 1.9% in 2022 and a fall by 0.2% in 2023. In the past fewer years, Finland, like many another developed economies, has seen a steep increase in public spending, which combined with a fall in income has affected financial sustainability. Although the government debt-to-GDP ratio declined by 5 percent points in 2021, government loans and government fiscal policy became the main subject of this year's electoral campaign. On 10 February 2023, there was a vote of no assurance in the centre-left government, but Prime Minister Sanna Marin survived this crisis and remained in her position.
Although Sanna Marin is the most popular politician in Finland, her party, the Social Democratic organization of Finland, does not enjoy the same support. Petteri Orpo, leader of the National Coalition Party, criticized Sanna Marin for her management of the energy crisis, accusing her of weakening Finland's economical position. Orpo stressed that the Marin government had neglected energy issues besides long and had not taken adequate preventive action before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. Orpo promised that in the event of a triumph in the election, the Coalition would focus on reducing spending and improving the country's financial condition. 1 way to accomplish this nonsubjective is to make savings in the public sector and to halt further increases in public debt.
The consequence of the elections and the failure of the Social Democratic organization of Finland shows us that there is no longer any request for the policy offered by the Sanna Marin government, despite the fact that the ruling parties had to the end of the majority in the polls. The reason for this is the fatigue of citizens' policies led by left-wing coalitions, or SDP conflicts with the Centre Party, even at the end of the word of office, erstwhile the subject of the Saam Act returned. The celebrated video on which the dancing Sanna Marin was seen and the subsequent false accusations of drug usage were not specified a strong determinant who overcame the election consequence and reversed possible voters from the SDP. It can be noted that only the SDP grew in the polls, and the remainder of the parties that were part of the left-wing coalition passed the fall of support. This was due to the mobilisation of left-wing electorate to vote for SDP. This was to aid strengthen the Social Democrats and slow the growth of the Coalition and the Finn Party. As long as the SDP has gained this, the parties of the left-wing coalition cannot respect these elections as successful as they have lost 20 seats in the parliament. In addition, Finland's prime ministers have the destiny of the second term. Rarely, which Prime Minister after planet War II managed to hold up after his first word as Prime Minister. The only case erstwhile the Prime Minister's organization won the election and was re-elected as Prime Minister of Finland was between 1995 and 2004, erstwhile he ruled the Social politician Paavo Lipponen. It is besides worth noting that only twice in the post-war history, the group from which the ruling prime minister came managed to improve its consequence from the “previous elections.”
Fin is afraid of war
Changing power in Finland is besides the consequence of the ongoing war. Similarly, the Finns behaved during planet War II, then they besides turned right and voted for the National Coalition. Why? The reason is simple. At the minute of danger, society wants a safety guarantee. This safety is achieved, for example, by postulates to invest in the army. That is why the National Coalition has gained in this year's elections, due to the fact that we can say that this group has been talking about Finnish membership in NATO for years, and after 24 February 2022 it began as 1 of the first groups to inform about the dangers coming from Russia and the benefits of Finland's membership of the North Atlantic Alliance. The Swedes did likewise. There besides won the right and a centre-right government was created. The reasons are the same. The war in Ukraine, which caused an energy and economical crisis in the country and fatigue of the policy pursued by leftist parties. Winning a right-wing organization is an increasingly common trend not only in the Nordic countries but throughout Europe.
Petteri Orpo won't have easy
In the face of elections, the leader of the National Coalition, Petteri Orpo, is faced with an crucial choice – whether to make a coalition with the populist organization of the Finns, or to search agreement with the centre parties, or possibly even with social democrats representing the current government. In order for the future government to get a majority in parliament, it will gotta get the support of 1 or 2 smaller parties, which may be difficult, given that many of them do not express interest in participation in the government. Nor is Prime Minister Sanna Marin willing to cooperate, who announced on 5 April that she would resign in September from the position of president of the Social Democratic organization of Finland. The creation of a government coalition with the Finnish organization may be problematic due to the fact that smaller parties are not inclined to compromise on immigration policy. Regardless of the result of the negotiations, Orpo may become a hostage to his power, as in the government coalition he will gotta make many concessions and compromises. The voters did not vote ideologically, but alternatively anticipate stableness and peace after stormy years with the government of Sanna Marin, alternatively than a government that reduces spending to reduce taxes or break with consensus.
Image author: Tapio Haaja
