What can Europe do?

European leaders repeat: we realize that. And in fact, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, defence spending has skyrocketed. A decade ago, erstwhile Russia seized the Ukrainian Crimea and set fire to Donbas, only 3 countries allocated 2% of GDP to this purpose. In 2024, the NATO ceiling reached 23 allies. Among them, Poland is the absolute leaderwhose defence spending exceeded 4% of GDP. another east flank countries have besides achieved the goal – from Finland, the Baltic countries, to Romania, and most importantly, besides European powers: Britain, France and Germany, although the second in considerable pain.

Meanwhile, in Europe there are more and more voices that are inactive besides few. In the spring of 2024, president Andrzej Duda stated that the NATO threshold should be raised to 3%. And just before the end of 2024, media was writing about Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who announced a revision of the most ambitious plan in the past of military and defence-related finance. 8 months earlier, the authorities approved a four-year spending paper of 35 billion kroner. But they rapidly concluded that they should be increased. In a akin speech others besides spoke – even though members Joint Expeditionary Forces (Joint Expeditionary Force – JEF), headed by the United Kingdom.

Increased spending translates primarily into modernization and expansion of the army. And again, it seems that there are changes in Poland. We have multi-billion contracts at a fast pace.. Modern Abrams and K2 tanks, HIMARS and Chunmoo rocket launchers flow into the units, and further elements of the rocket shield, consisting, among others, of purchased Patriot batteries, will shortly be behind the rudders. Fifth generation F-35A fighters, fresh naval ships are being built in shipyards – including the first of 3 modern ships Swordfish frigate. In the presumption of decision makers, the Polish army will shortly become 1 of the strongest in Europe. Others besides make their potential. The French buy thousands of reconnaissance and combat drones, and they modernize their atomic arsenal, the Germans order the next Patriots and together with Norway build fresh submarines, the United Kingdom acquires another F-35B aircraft. The list is of course much longer. Meanwhile, the countries of Europe are not just members of NATO. In addition to strengthening transatlantic bonds, they besides effort to build intracontinental ones. At European Union level, for example.

Union in combat

At the borders of Europe, the crisis is increasing. In order to prevent escalation that could endanger the continent, subdivisions from respective countries are sent to the site. Danger manages to choke in the embryo. This was the script of last year's “Milex ’24” exercises to test the ability to interact soldiers of different nations under the auspices of the EU. The forces operating at the camp in Bergen, Germany, led Eurocorpus, an global command based in Strasbourg. presently it is led by Poles – General Defends Peter Blazeus.

An armoured assault vehicle and an engineering vehicle, belonging to the Norwegian Porsanger Battalion, during the winter exercises "Nordic consequence ’24". photograph by Sondre Mosdal/ Forsvaret

Eurocorpus was formed in 1992 and became 1 of the symbols of the EU's military aspirations. – The French and Germany assumed at the time that the community would become a crucial player on the global stage, a partner for the US not only in the economical but besides in the political dimension. And 1 of the conditions was to have an army of his own," explains Dr. Łukasz. The communicative has changed. “Most countries have come to the conclusion that minimising American presence in Europe is pointless. However, the thought of developing EU military capabilities is not dead," Dr. Przyjadło emphasised. Over the years, Eurocorpus has worked very closely with NATO, even during many abroad missions. "In 1998, our personnel participated in the SFOR combat operation commanded by the Alliance in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and 2 years later created the nucleus of the NATO forces office deployed in Kosovo. My mom's account too. managing the ISAF mission in Afghanistan and respective times command of the terrestrial component of the Natov consequence forces – the kmdr cf. Tomasz Pawęska from the Eurocorpus press office adds that the Strasbourg command is now an integral part of the collective safety system. – At any time, depending on events and needs, we can be utilized for both Natowski and EU activities – Mr Tomasz Pawęska assures.

So far since January 1, 2025 the entity acts as the advanced command for the European Union Combat Group. It consists of soldiers of 9 states and has about 5,000 soldiers. Most of them are Germans. There are respective akin groups. They usually number 1,500–2000 soldiers. The European Union established them in 2004. They are intended to participate in stabilisation, prevention and humanitarian missions within a radius of 6,000 km from Brussels. To be sent to an inflamed area, they must be ready within 15 days. The thought is simple – if necessary, soldiers under the auspices of the EU step in, for a period to 3 silence the first crisis and then give way to the forces operating under the flag of the United Nations. Poland powerfully emphasizes its presence besides in these structures. Just mention that since July 2024 The core of the Visegrad conflict Group are soldiers of the 6th Airborne Brigade. Their work will proceed until June 2025. – This decision strengthens Poland's position in the European Union and Polish security. We are filling a gap which another states were incapable to fill – stressed during the inauguration of the Polish Vice Prime Minister Command and the national defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

Joint programmes

However, Russia's full-scale aggression on Ukraine has put the European Union in a completely fresh position. The leaders of the community decided to decision powerfully forward. In 2022, the alleged strategical compass was approved, which defines an EU strategy for safety and defence. In November 2024, the defence ministers of the associate States, on the occasion of the adoption of the EU's yearly defence report, signed 4 letters of intent on joint investment and improvement of arms programmes. These include purchases of circulating ammunition or the construction of a European rocket defence system. The last thought came from the Germans in 2022. So far, 18 countries have joined the ESSI (European Sky Shield Initiative) initiative, late Poland as well. The task assumes the creation of a shield consisting of 3 ballistic rocket control systems: Arrow-3, Patriot and IRIS-T-SLM.

The EU has besides launched, among others, the European Defence manufacture Reinformation Through Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA), which is designed to encourage associate States to buy equipment together for their armies and at the same time aid the European arms industry. Finally, there is much talk in Brussels about the request to increase the EU defence budget. At the end of 2024, Andrius Kubilius, the Lithuanian Commissioner for Defence, suggested that another seven-year task should include a evidence of EUR 100 billion allocated to this purpose. That's 10 times what it is now. The fresh position will apply from 2027.

It's a good move, especially in the face of Donald Trump's fresh announcements. “Europe should strengthen its position, although it is evidently not a simple task,” says Dr. Arrive. The situation was considerably complicated by Brexit, which threw out 1 of 2 European atomic powers outside the EU. "The UK has by all means been excluded from all EU projects, but... we cannot regulation out that 1 day it will return to the community or at least it will strengthen its ties in different fields," says Dr. Przydło. but there are more unknowns. "Europe must surely take care of any military autonomy. The question is: should this affect a crucial expansion of EU military structures? I don't think so. Why do that if We have NATO? – asks Dr Jakub Olchowski, a political scientist from the Institute of Central Europe and Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin. prof. Paweł Turczyński from the Institute of European Studies of the University of Wrocław speaks in a akin tone. "European countries must answer the fundamental question: would the expansion of the EU's military structures come down to double NATO?" And if so – why do it? Is it worth convincing the citizens of the associate States to invest in 2 separate structures, whose objectives stay identical? In his opinion It is unreasonable to build any alternate to NATO. The EU itself has neither specified possible nor... aspirations. Cooperation with the Alliance is 1 of its priorities. And any European initiative is intended to contribute to NATO's efforts. This is the case, for example, with the EU-launched EUMAM training mission, who prepares to fight soldiers from Ukraine.

A barrel of honey, a spoon of pie.

Meanwhile, tension in Europe is not falling. The Russian army is stuck in Ukraine, but politicians and experts have no uncertainty that the Kremlin has not given up its aspirations. And these are connected with the demolition of the geopolitical order that followed the end of the Cold War. To avoid this, NATO strengthens its deterrence policy. 1 of its pillars remains presence on the US Old Army Continent. However, European allies are besides very active. An example? In mid-December, the media reported the capture of 2 Russian Tu-22 bombers on the Baltic with hypersonic missiles. This play was performed by a pair of Finnish F-18s. He assisted her Dutch F-35, which took off with Amari bases in Estoniawhere the Dutch are stationed as part of the Air Police mission. It aims to safe airspace in the Baltic States. Earlier specified tasks in Estonia and Lithuania were performed by Polish F-16, among others.

There are besides battalion conflict groups on the east flank, consisting of subdivisions of land delegated by respective countries. In Estonia, the core of the group is the British, Lithuania – Germany, Romania – the French. You can number long. In the event of a crisis, European allies will fight side by side with Americans and Canadians. As Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states, an attack on even 1 of the associate States is an attack on the full Alliance and must meet its response.

Over Russia, the most likely opponent today, NATO has a decisive advantage. But would Europe be able to defy its aggression on its own? – No problem – says Dr. Has arrived. “Of course, if it were a conventional blow, and in our speculations we will limit ourselves to a set of military potentials,” he adds. In terms of arms, NATO Europe has an advantage over Russia in almost all element. According to the latest ranking of Global Firepower, Russia presently has just over 4,000 aircraft and helicopters, while European NATO members almost double. Nearly 2,000 of them are multitasking F-35, F-16, Eurofighters or Gripeny. It's a full another league than Russian combat aircraft. Additionally, there is even better training of Natian pilots. For 2 years, the Russians were incapable to win an air advantage on the Ukrainian front. So it is hard to presume that akin art would have been successful in Europe – noted Dr. Przydło.

French soldiers during training. Photo: Torbjørn Kjosvold/ Forsvaret

The same is actual of the Navy. It is adequate to mention that European allies have six aircraft carriers at their disposal, including 2 modern British Queen Elisabeth ships, which on their decks can carry 36 F-35 aircraft and 4 Merlin helicopters. There are dozens of modern destroyers, frigates and submarines – including nuclear-powered units. Russia can only argue 1 aircraft carrier, but the utilized “Admiral Kuźnatov” has been undergoing renovations for years, which cannot be seen ending. The Russians can boast of a considerable number of water and submarine combat units. Moreover, their number is increasing. At the end of 2023, 2 nuclear-powered submarines – “Krasnojarsk” and “Imperator Alexander III” entered the line, and in a fewer months another specified unit – “Kniaz Pożarski” is to join them. However, the European NATO members have respective quantitative advantages here, let alone technological ones.

It's a lot harder to estimation differences erstwhile it comes to land troops. However, given how much losses Russia suffers in Ukraine, and this is where Europe is likely to prevail. Especially since her army has more modern equipment, specified as Leopard, Challenger or Abrams tanks. “European armies gotta fill their staff shortages, but they inactive have rather quite a few resources,” says Dr. Przybyła. Poland and France have more than 200,000 soldiers, the Italians and the British are approaching this number. The Turkish Army's population, the largest outside of America, is 481,000 people. Meanwhile, Russia, according to Global Firepower, has 1.3 million soldiers.

– The West stands incomparably higher in terms of method and organisational culture," emphasises Dr. Olchowski. – Three years of war in Ukraine This is simply a scope of Russian disgraces in terms of command at all practically levels, although of course present the situation has improved importantly compared to 2022. There's besides the issue of equipment. The Russians boast that they have supertechnology, but it is adequate to ask themselves a simple question: does the West smuggle Russian chips and components into their rockets, or is it the opposite? This isn't over. According to Dr. Olchowski, Russia knows that there is no greater chance in confronting NATO, which is why it is resorting to intellectual plays. This is the way to see the final modification of the atomic strategy. The fresh version of the paper states that the Russians can usage atomic weapons against the state that will attack their territory utilizing conventional means but with the support of the atomic power. Putin, reaching for a atomic bogeyman, drew another red line. In this way, he responded to Ukrainian attacks utilizing western rockets, the mark of which were objects in deep Russia. but after the veiled threats, there was no action again. specified a scare of Western politicians and society to any degree unfortunately brings results, but it slow looks like a grotesque one," the expert emphasizes.

Investment needed

However, this does not mean that Europe can sleep peacefully. “If Russia had attacked Poland utilizing conventional means and the number of its troops and equipment was akin to what we see on the Ukrainian front today, we would have been a hard nut for it,” says Prof. Turczyński. “Unfortunately, the further westward, the worse the situation would look,” he adds. According to the expert, Putin's aggressive attitude forced European leaders to act, but in many places change is inactive besides slow. Let me give you a fewer examples. In 2023, Germany provided Ukraine with about 20 Leopard 2A5 tanks as part of the armored coalition. And they announced that the decline in their own army would be completed between 2025 and 2026. This production of 20 cars took them two–three years?! The same is actual of ammunition. In 2023 France was able to pass on Ukraine... a 1000 artillery shells of 155 mm a month. At the end of 2024, as announced by the French defence minister, production increased to 3,000 per month. Compared to what the fighting sides use, that's all they use. Russia is conducting a material war in Ukraine, and the European manufacture was not prepared for specified a solution. Now we gotta catch up. Not only to aid Ukrainians, but besides to replenish their own reserves,” emphasised Prof. Turczyński. Europe has the right resources. – In the hundreds of world's largest arms companies There are 27 entities from our continent. but we make mostly for others. Europe is liable for 1 3rd of global arms exports," says Dr. Olchowski, and adds that at least part of this stream needs to be diverted inwards in the face of danger. But it takes political will, and it can be different with it. The West lacks strong leaders. Meanwhile, the public must be convinced that greater spending on arms is necessary, due to the fact that the time of peaceful coexistence is over. It's not easy. The fresh situation in many aspects may lead to a deterioration of the standard of surviving of average Europeans – says Prof. Turczyński. But there's no alternative. – It is better to spend up to 5–6% of GDP on reinforcements than now Ukraine 37% – says Dr. Przybyła.

Experts point out that open war is not threatening us. – Russia is besides heavy active in Ukraine. The war costs her besides much strength and resources to think about something more – stressed Prof. Turczyński. But this may not last forever. That's why we request to make good usage of the time we got. Trump's emergence to power can paradoxically prove beneficial to Europe. There's a chance she's gonna dynamize it. Will that truly happen? Time will tell – concludes Dr Olchowski.

There is no uncertainty that Europe is at a crucial minute for itself. She has not taken up specified large safety challenges since the end Cold War. And although he has all the data to meet them, he must... be convinced that there is no another way.