In the just published survey Závecz Research, presented in the "Civil a pályán" programme on ATV, the Tisza group would gain 46 % of the vote among the "certain" voters, while Fidesz-KDNP could number on 35 % of the vote, which means an 11% advantage of the fresh formation over the ruling camp.
In comparison, the Medián survey of 18 June showed even more clear dominance of Tisza Párt – then the Péter Magyar group gathered 51 % of the votes of the "decisive" voters, and Fidesz 36 %, which translated into a 15-point lead. This means that in just a fewer days, Tisha's support decreased by 5 percent points, while Fidesz lost only 1 point (from 36% to 35%). This variation points to the expanding uncertainty of the electorate and to the fact that the fresh political movement – although inactive in the construction phase – is subject to violent temper fluctuations.
Tisha Párt, besides referred to as the respect and Freedom organization (from the first letters of the words ‘tishtelet’ and ‘szabadság’), was established in October 2020 and originally functioned as a tiny conservative group, self-determining as ‘ideological’. The breakthrough occurred in July 2024 erstwhile Péter Magyar – a erstwhile Fidesz associate joined the party. In 2006, he married lawyer Judit Varga, with whom he has 3 children. From 2019 to 1923, his wife served as Minister of Justice, but resigned erstwhile she decided to run from the first place coalition list to the European Parliament in the 2024 election. In the colorful press, the couple was frequently shown as a pattern of conventional family. In 2023, their matrimony was officially terminated by divorce.
Péter Magyar gained wide designation in February 2024 erstwhile it was revealed that the president had pardoned the deputy manager of the kid home accused of covering up pedophile crimes. The scandal led to the resignation of president Katalin Novák and the suspension of the political activities of Judit Vargi, who countersigned the decision to pardon. On the same day, February 10, Magyar posted on Facebook an entry in which he distanced himself from the government's team, suggesting that Viktor Orbán was the real work for the controversial decision, and that the political pressures became victims of Novák and Varga. Consequently, he besides resigned from office in state companies.
He then gave an extended interview on the "Partizán" channel on YouTube, which shortly exceeded 2 million views. He besides started creating a social movement and organizing anti-government demonstrations – the first 1 was held on 15 March 2024, on the anniversary of the national holiday. Later that month, he released a video of 2023, on which Judit Varga tells him that Minister Antal Rogán blocked the corruption investigation into erstwhile Secretary of State Pála Völner.
The programme basis for Tisza Párt is the alleged ‘21 points’, which aim to make a ‘better, more balanced and equitable’ state. Key assumptions include the recovery of EUR 20 billion of EU funds held by the European Commission, which, according to the head of the party, would aid revive the economy and support tiny businesses; the introduction of national minimum standards in access to energy and social benefits; the simplification in the number of elder officials and the direct election of the president by citizens. This programme combines liberal-conservative elements, accentuates anti-corruption, decentralisation of power and increased procedural transparency.
In the European Union, Tisha Párt is simply a associate of the European People's Party, and the organization itself seeks to make a "central anti-systemic force", cutting itself off from extremes and exhibiting a commitment to democratic values and European integration. With the support of younger voters (under the age of 40, of whom 58% in the Medián study) the Magyar organization grew to be the biggest challenge Viktor Orbán faced since 2010.
Fidesz's decline in public opinion polls is due to respective overlapping causes. Firstly, the economical crisis that has persisted for 5 years (low GDP growth rate, advanced energy costs, inflation above wage increases) has resulted in a deterioration in real citizens' incomes. The second origin is the scandals of power, peculiarly in connection with controversial pardons of those convicted of serious crimes that have provoked allegations of nepotism and deficiency of transparency. The perception of the state as favouring the selected groups has weakened citizens' religion in the integrity of the institutions. In addition, the strategy of a tough hand (erőpolitika), which includes restrictions on the rights to assembly or repression of NGOs, is met with opposition especially in cities and among young, free-minded voters.
Thirdly, alongside Tisha Párt, Fidesz must face rivalry from the nationalists of Mi Hazánk Mozgalom. In the Závecz investigation Mi Hazánk poll, it would gain 7% of support, which would let it to cross the parliamentary threshold (10perc.hu). Mi Hazánk, headed by Laszlo Torockai, combines anti-immigration rhetoric, Euroscepticism and moral conservatism. Although he has not yet posed a direct threat to the sole contenders to power or has been marginalized by Fidesz, now under conditions of increasing distrust of the government, nationalists gain space to argue the establishment, and their extremist demands may attract any of the conventional voters of the ruling party.
As a result, Fidesz is pressed on 2 sides: from the center by a rival offering centred, pro-European solutions and from the right flank by Mi Hazánk. This makes Viktor Orbán's position, despite attempts to alleviate moods (e.g. designed taxation cuts for families with children in the budget for 2026), increasingly volatile.
