Less than 2 percent points of difference and support below 30 percent - are the conclusions of the fresh investigation Gate poll on the Ariadne panel. Sunday elections would have been won by the Civic Coalition, but would not have been able to make a fresh majority. What else brings a fresh study?
According to a investigation partner survey conducted on the Ariadne panel between 31 October and 3 November, and thus after the alleged CPK scandal has been revealed, the Civic Coalition is the biggest support. It was chosen by 29 percent of respondents., which is 2 pp more than in the erstwhile study.
SEE: Return of game under CPK. Head of the NCA announces the decision
In second place, it ranks Law and Justice with 27.6% support. This is as much as 3.8 pp. little than a period ago. This decline decided that the Civic Coalition had advanced in the investigation Partner poll to lead.
However, this does not mean that KO would regulation the country. Only 3 more parties would enter the Sejm: Confederation with 11.6 percent support (growth by 0.3 pp.), Left with 7.1 percent support (+0.8 pp.) and Confederation of the Polish Crown with 6.4 percent. Votes (+2.9 pp.). little than 10% of respondents do not know who they would vote for in the election, and attendance would be 69.3%.
Today's KO coalitions did not exceed the electoral threshold in the study. In the survey Poland 2050 selected 3 percent of respondents, Polish People's organization - 1.1 percent.
KO precedes the Law and Justice, but more fines would gain opposition
The poll's support was converted into Dr. Maciej Onasz's vote from the Department of Political Systems of the University of Lodz. According to him, The Citizens' Coalition would get 179 seats, just 1 more than the Law and Justice. The Confederacy would have a representation of 56 MPs, 27 seats could number on Left (without Together, which, with the support of 2.6 percent, would not exceed the electoral threshold). The Confederation of the Polish Crown would have 20 MPs in the Sejm.
"Such a timetable means that the current The ruling coalition would have a full of 206 seats and opposition parties would have 254 representatives in the lower home of Parliament" - was handed over by investigation Partner analysts.
SEE: Poles assessed Donald Tusk's rule. Latest poll
The survey was conducted by investigation Partner on the ARIADNA investigation Panel from 31 October to 3 November 2025 on a nationwide example of 1090 adults. The respondents were selected according to representations in the Polish population for gender, age and size of the place of residence.
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