Ukrainian offensive - breakthrough or stagnation? What's next? [COMMENTARY]

**At the end of the first week of June 2023, the long-awaited offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces began in confederate Ukraine. Many analysts indicated that its goal would be to scope the Sea of Azov and close Crimea. However, the first days of fighting have proven that Ukrainian operations will not match last year's "blitzkrieg" from the Kharkiv region, and will be closer to the dense and long fighting in the Kherson region, which stretched over respective summertime and autumn months. At what phase is the Ukrainian offensive now? Can we talk of defeat?