Written by Giuseppe Adamo, Bartosz Mirowski, Maciej Pawłowski
Tunisian society is the closest mentally to European societies. However, national authorities are increasingly turning towards cooperation with China. At the same time, Tunisia remains an crucial partner of the EU for trade, energy transit and the fight against illegal migration. The construction of fresh infrastructure links may be a way of stopping this country from Europe, including expanding European exports to the Tunisian market.
Relations with the EU
Tunisia has maintained close economical and political relations with the EU for decades, being 1 of the key partners in the Mediterranean. The EU is Tunisia's largest trading partner, liable for 54.8% its trade in 2024: 67.2% Tunisia exports (€13 billion) went to the EU and 45.2% Tunisia's imports (€2.1 billion) came from the EU. An association agreement was concluded between Tunisia and the EU in 1995 and a privileged partnership in 2012. In the period of the Tunisian democratic experimentation of 2011-2019, the country received funds from EU funds with a full of about EUR 1 billion. Unfortunately, they frequently went to organizations associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, which simply staged liberal-democratic activities.
Still leading suppliers goods and services in the Tunisian marketplace are EU associate States: Italy ($3.32 billion), France ($3.14 billion), Germany ($1.92 billion), Spain ($1.06 billion). Polish exports to Tunisia in 2023 amounted to 174 million dollars. However, suppliers from outside Europe are beginning to play an increasingly crucial role: China ($2.56 billion), Russia ($2.12 billion), Algeria ($1.81 billion), Turkey ($1.32 billion), USA ($687 billion), India ($580 billion), or Brazil ($410 billion).
In terms of investment too, EU associate States are slow losing their dominant position. True, French, German and Italian investments inactive dominate the automotive, textile, agriculture and renewable energy industries. However, in the pharmaceutical and technological sectors, investments from the US and in electronics from Japan have the advantage. In the field of conventional energy, real property and banking, the leading investor is the United arabian Emirates. In turn, infrastructure and telecommunications investments are the domain of China.
At the same time, these relations have a strategical dimension – Tunisia is recognised by the EU as a buffer state in the fight against illegalism migration. The first agreement was concluded between Tunisia and Italy as early as 1998. In 2011, cooperation between MFA officials of both countries succeeded in reducing the wave of illegal crossings of the Italian border by Tunisians resulting from the chaos caused by the events of the alleged arabian Spring. Another contract was concluded in 2023. However, the way Tunisia implemented it raises concerns.
The ongoing economical rapprochement with China besides translates into political relations. erstwhile in 2024 president Kais Sayed refused to comply decently with the aforementioned migration agreement with Italy, he received authoritative support from the Chinese Embassy in Tunis. Tunisia has not agreed to make jobs for migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and has not given up the practice of sending them to the desert at the border with Libya. Italy has so reduced the planned financial support for Tunisia from EUR 1 billion to EUR 217 million.
Energy connections
The European Union, as part of the Global Gateway strategy and REPowerEU plan, strengthens energy cooperation with North Africa, treating the region as a key origin of diversification of supply and green improvement transformation. Gas pipelines linking Algeria, Libya and Italy specified as Enrico Mattei and Greenstream are of peculiar importance. By DG ENERGY This infrastructure can be utilized in the future to transport hydrogen, which increases its strategical value. Tunisia plays a function as a transit country in these projects.
The most ambitious venture is the confederate Hydrogen Corridor (SoutH2 Corridor), entered in the list of PCI projects in 2024. It is to combine Algeria and Tunisia with Italy, Austria and Germany, delivering up to 4 million tonnes of green H2 per year, corresponding to 40% of the REPowerEU import mark (South2Corridor). However, the investment is subject to financial risk. warnsthat the EU may not accomplish the expected volume of hydrogen imports by 2030
Gas extraction, like any mining work, requires the consumption of large quantities of water, but the thought of its exports from the EU to Africa does not appear in the papers of the European institutions. In the current logistical context, the water supply task seems unrealistic. Instead, the EU supports the improvement of seawater desalination and all kinds of technology transfer.
According to the global Energy Agency (IEA), in 2023 more than 95% of electricity in Tunisia came from natural gas, of which nearly half was imported from Algeria. The share of low carbon sources was only 3–4%, mainly solar and wind energy. However, the Government in Tunis plans to scope 35% RES by 2030 and 80% by 2050, developing projects specified as Kairouan Solar Power Station (120 MW, start 2025). According to the planet Bank, an increase in RES share is besides essential for fiscal reasons, as imports of fuels and electricity account for a crucial part of the budget deficit. It besides increases Tunisia's political dependence on neighbouring Algeria, the most fresh example of which was a short-lived dispute from the 1970s between Algerian president Houari Boumedien and his Tunisian counterpart Habib Bourghiba. erstwhile the first suggested the creation of an Algerian-Tunisian union, the second replied to him that first the possible of countries, e.g. including Annaba in Tunisia, would should be leveled. Boumedien responded to this gag by disconnecting power supplies, which led to a blackout across the country. Electricity was only restored after Bourghiba's apology.
Infrastructure connections
Maritime transport plays a key function in the economy of Tunisia – it is estimated that 98% trade in the country is carried out by sea. The most crucial port is Port Rades in Tunis, serving around 80% container handling in the country. Tunisian ports have fixed connections to major Italian ports (Genua, Palermo, Civitavecchia) and French ports (Marselia). They support both passenger and cargo traffic, including Ro-Ro ferries (ships designed to carry rolling loads and vehicles – passenger cars, trucks or railway wagons). The strategical importance of Tunisia's ports derives not only from their location in the Mediterranean, but besides from their function in the transit of goods to Libya and the Sahel. However, this location besides promotes illegal transit, including smuggling of goods and people, which is simply a major challenge for border safety and customs control.
Air transport primarily serves as a passenger, serving tourism (mainly European). The main airport is Tunis-Carthage, which in 2024 served above 7 million passengers. Tunisia maintains a dense network of connections especially with France and Italy. The Government of Tunisia presented a strategy for the improvement of air transport aimed at expanding the capacity of major airports from 19.5 million to 35 million passengers until 2035.
In the past, an ambitious thought of building appeared respective times bridge between Tunisia and Sicily, regularly returning as part of Africa's symbolic link to Europe. The planned way would be about 140 km, but the prospects for implementation stay limited. There are crucial doubts as to the feasibility of the project, arising from both geographical conditions (deepness and sea currents) and the deficiency of clear indications of its economical validity. However, the anticipation of future implementation of the task is enhanced by the decision of the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of 6 August 2025. It approved the construction of the first bridge between Sicily and the continental part of Italy. The task is to be implemented for 10 years and costs EUR 13.5 billion.
Conclusions and perspectives
Tunisia has the possible to become a regional logistics and energy hub. Its location, close Sicily, allows for fast transport of goods and people to the EU and the improvement of energy and industrial projects in the nearshoring expression (locating production abroad, but to a close location). However, further investment in the modernisation of maritime infrastructure, the improvement of aviation infrastructure and the improvement of the efficiency of intermodal connections will be crucial to this objective. The EU is already financing a large proportion of these investments today, but the effectiveness of this support will depend on the country's political stableness and its capacity to implement reforms.
The construction of fresh infrastructure connections, specified as the bridge from Sicily to Tunisia, can reduce the transport costs of European goods by improving their competitiveness towards non-EU products. At the same time, investments in renewable energy can make Attractive Tunisia as a possible electricity supplier to confederate Italy or Malta.
For more information, see Maciej Pawłowski's book The Gate to Europe. Whether North Africa decides the future of the Old Continent.
