Trump, Thailand and Cambodia: a border conflict that has become a global game of influence

Thailand is in a political crisis and the most serious escalation has been taking place on the Cambodian border for years. Behind the local dispute over the temple lies the past of colonial boundaries, ambition of powers and political calculation.

Trump as a Mediator — Political motion or Desperation?

Cambodia's decision to study Donald Trump to the Nobel Peace Prize amazed the region's observers. According to analyst Karolina Alfuth, it is simply a movement calculated for respective purposes: to tickle the ego of the American leader, internationalize the conflict and show Thailand that Phnom Penh besides has access to Washington. Deputy Prime Minister of Cambodia in conversation with Wall Street Journal He praised Trump for “peace efforts worldwide”, hoping that his commitment would increase force on Bangkok.

Boundary set by colonists

Today's conflict was not born in May or December 2025. Its roots date back to the early 20th century erstwhile France and Siam (Today Thailand - ep.red.) set the border, leaving areas around the Hindu temple of Preah Vihear as disputed territory. In 1962, the global Court of Justice granted them to Cambodia, but Thailand never full recognized this judgment. Since then, tensions have been suffocating to detonate with fresh force in 2025.

Escalation: Closed border, fire and fight for territorial waters

As of December 7, the full Cambodian-Thailand border was closed. Thailand, with a stronger army, has taken up any of the disputed waters and is shooting in tourist areas, explaining this by fighting “Kambodian fraud”. The scale of action is greater than in erstwhile conflict episodes in May and July.

Thailand: a political crisis in the shadow of war

Thailand's home situation is further fueling conflict. After the 2023 election, the improvement organization failed to make a government, and the Conservative-Monarchist coalition supported by the military took over. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed after a conversation with erstwhile Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen leaked, which provoked outrage in the country. In December, Parliament was dissolved and fresh elections were appointed for February 8. The border conflict has become a run tool — “unification around the flag” is intended to strengthen the military-king camp.

Cambodia: State of 1 family

On the another side of the border is ruled by Hun Manet, the boy of Hun Sen, who held power since the 1980s. The opposition is marginalized, the media is subordinate, and the interior policy is only seemingly stable. The deficiency of independent sources of information makes it hard for Phnom Penh to measure the real situation at the border.

Economics: Who “holds” whom longer

The conflict strikes both countries. The closure of the border stopped tourist traffic and trade. Cambodia is peculiarly affected by the deficiency of imports from Thailand, which accounts for over 40% of the basic products in stores. Thailand, in turn, loses investors and exposes itself to force from economical partners, including Japan.

USA and China: an old dispute in a fresh installment

Although Cambodia is closely connected with China today, the United States does not want to give the region back to Beijing. South-East Asia's stableness is crucial for global supply chains and the safety of maritime routes. Thus, Washington, regardless of Trump’s individual ambition, has an interest in putting out the conflict.

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Shadow of History: American bombings and the birth of the Khmer Reds

There is besides a historical subject in the conversation: the function of the US in destabilising Cambodia in the 1970s. Bombardments conducted for Nixon's presidency and with Henry Kissinger, a later Nobel Peace Prize winner, contributed to the radicalisation of the village and the strengthening of the Khmer Reds. It's an ironic context for today's Cambodian praise for Trump.