Trump duty. How much will they take down the Eurosceptic right, including the Law and Justice?

"According to the preliminary assessment, fresh US duties can reduce Polish GDP by 0.4%, i.e. in a prudent simplification the losses will exceed PLN 10 billion. The punch is severe and sad, due to the fact that from the closest ally, but we'll hold him. Our relationship must besides endure this test," he wrote on Thursday on the X platform of the Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

CulaTrumpa. Tusk vs. Right

The media lists all Polish industries, and even individual factories, which may lose on American tariffs. At the same time, it is clear that the Tusk entry is political. The Polish Prime Minister responds to all those who accused him of moving distant from America and even wanting to push it out of Europe. Indicates Donald Trump as an aggressive side, and on themselves and their camp as people who are nevertheless ready to proceed for friendship, for an alliance with the US bravely and with dedication to pursue.

Even more openly, the chief made a political comment MFARadosław Sikorski. He asked the right female how she would explain that European Union has been charged with duties by Trump, and Russia Nope. It's consistent with leadership tactics. Civil Coalition. More than Trump himself, they criticize PiS For being subjected to the fresh American administration.

What about the PiS right? Its message of the day is the criticism of the Tusk Government that he did not effort to negociate with Trump's squad the amount of fresh tariffs, on behalf of the full European Union. Poland holds a presidency in the EU. It's an accusation made. We are dealing with a very bad Polish government, possibly the worst since 1989. But in this case, Trump had rather apparent shock therapy. no of the 185 countries charged with duties had a chance to negotiate.

Perhaps the time for negotiations will come only now, Trump, on the 1 hand, describes the breach of the negative trade balance, among another things, with Europe as a "liberation", but besides suggests a willingness to sit at the table, although with whom and to what degree it is unknown. Trade talks are surely not a task for the country holding the Presidency either. This is for a professional camera European Commission.

USA. Trump reaches to Republican roots

Interesting is Trump's attachment to the thought of tariffs as a reception for America's prosperity. This mention – the question of how conscious – to tradition Republican Party, which in the second half of the 19th century surrounded the United States customs shaft. The substance was the subject of a political dispute. Republicans represented various business industries curious in protection, regardless of higher product prices. Democrats they acted on behalf of consumers afraid about the expensive, though besides those sectors of the economy that were losing on advanced duties.

The dispute had a nature without a tiny symbolic one, due to the fact that no of the parties truly knew what the consequences of specified or another tariffs were for the full economy. There was a belief that the protection customs policy triggered a major crisis in 1929, due to the fact that the weakening of US-Europe trade hit the economy and finances of both parties. Then economical historians began to question the categoricality of this assumption, pointing to another factors. But the impact of advanced customs duties and the ensuing customs wars on the deteriorating economical condition of the planet cannot be ruled out entirely.

Since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the president has been given power of lawyer to conduct customs policy. After planet War II, democratic teams like Republicans were increasingly beginning up the American economy to importing competitors. It was besides of a political nature, so the US gathered support from non-communist countries. But this was besides due to a very general imagination of the world. Republicans were erstwhile the creators of the doctrine of protecting the American economy. Now their president Ronald Reagan (1981-1989) praised the free movement of capital and goods. It was meant to be a condition of greater prosperity.

Except it happened before the large offensive of the Chinese economy. Trump sometimes summons Reagan as a model, but diametrically rejected his philosophy. He sees excessive economical globalisation as a threat. Customs are expected to halt her in America's interests.

And let's face it, we don't know where this is going to end. The full character of the fresh customs roller is striking so far. The erstwhile Republican tariffs differentiated the customs burden according to the kind of goods. This was naturally influenced by lobbyists' whispers, but since the 1920s the marketplace has been being explored.

Trump “carts” the European Union with a 20% burden of everything (or, in fact, more due to the fact that it is added to old customs). China, the most crucial competitor, receive 34 % duties. Customs besides fall on underdeveloped economies. The symbol has already been considered unknown to the islands of Heard and McDonald on Indian Oceanterritory Australia. They were charged, although no 1 reportedly lives on them.

This can be portrayed as the effect of Trump's madness. This does not should be the case, although the form is violent, unlike the U.S. policies of erstwhile eras. Firstly, it is hard to regulation out the mitigating effects of the negotiations. At the same time, Trump's website lists a long list of companies ready to decision their production or at least invest in America – from Apple to Siemens. These are both returning US and abroad entities. That's the intent of this operation.

Only at the same time, it is hard to foretell the economical impact of possible customs wars on the full planet economy. A fresh balance may be achieved after a fewer months. Or possibly we'll get a planet recession. Economics is not precisely a strict science.

The American people themselves, at least most of them, don't like the costly announcement. This besides applies to Republican voters. The possible of creating fresh jobs is little convincing. This is most likely besides a consequence of media warnings and at least part of Wall Street finance, always curious in global, as freest possible.

U.S. Customs. Questions about allies

We inactive have political consequences. I do not follow closely the work of Jack Bartosiak, his various forecasts have been questioned many times. But erstwhile he says that the regulation of free (at least partly) trade was besides a binder of a strategy of political alliances, he is right. This concerns Europe on the 1 hand. Let's not repeat any more mechanical phrases about pushing the U.S. out of her. Trump consciously besides chooses the political loneliness of America. Including the hazard of Brussels flirting with the Chinese. Will this balance the temptation to deal with Washington Putin?

On the another hand, this besides applies to another regions of the world. The American president wants to compete primarily with China, but the full character of his customs roller pushes countries like Japan, Korea and Vietnam. They were besides painfully burdened How much does that put them in China's embrace? We'll see about that. Even Taiwan, since 1949 the subject of American care has suffered a 32 percent tariff. possibly this will be reopened in the course of any negotiations. What if he doesn't? So far, everyone in these countries is protesting it.

For decades, another American teams played trade liberalisation, making friends, or at least creating neutral ones. This was especially actual of the poorer parts of the world. The stakes on the game can be worth it. What if a global crisis script is fulfilled? You can't regulation it out.

This complicates the situation of Eurosceptic alt-right opposition in many European countries. Just felt the warm Trump "care". She's just been courted. Elona Muska. It can now be portrayed as a partner of the impact on the European economy. Just erstwhile so many factors started to favour her.

The policy of the European mainstream, forcing the fast centralisation of the Union, has never been so arrogant and so inept. It turns out, however, that Trump will not aid us usage this moment. This will make it easier for mainstream to hit opposition, even legal repression. However, even any of Musko’s interests in America will endure from fresh fares.

This remark about unknowns, but possibly unfavourable trends may besides apply to the Law and Justice and to a lesser extent, due to the fact that it distances itself more from America, the Confederacy. Warnings, which are besides right, will be presented as an action for a common economical enemy before the EU's bureaucracy (and by the way of Berlin and Paris).

How effective? And this already depends on the effects of the fresh tariffs. Today, erstwhile we do not know them yet, Donald Tusk with Rafał Trzaskowski will surely benefit from the feeling of uncertainty in the presidential campaign. It won't be the main story, but it will.

Peter Zaremba