Current polls indicate that the Moldovan Action and Solidarity organization (PAS) can make a number government in the best script after the elections on 28 September. At worst, there is simply a hazard of losing power to pro-Cremlovian groups following Vladimir Putin's instructions. Current polls give Mai Sandu parties around 32 percent support. This is simply a 20-point drop in election in 2021, which allowed democrats to build a majority government, presently headed by Dorin Recean. They then obtained 63 seats in the 101-member single-seat parliament.
In July, 4 pro-Russian parties in Moldova announced that They will make a block before the September elections to have a chance to win on a pro-democratic and pro-EU group. It was composed of the Socialist organization of the Republic of Moldova, led by erstwhile president Igor Dodon, as well as the parties Heart of Moldova, the Future of Moldova and the Communist organization of Moldova. — We are in favour of restoring strategical relations with Russia. We want peace, not war. Our block will end abroad interests and NATO," said the erstwhile president, quoted by the Reuter Agency.
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The authorities in Chisinau accuse the heart of Moldova and the future of Moldova of cooperation with the escaped prokremlovski oligarch Ilan Shorem..who was sentenced to 15 years in prison for corruption. another groups that plan to run in elections are considered by PAS to be ‘apparently neutral’, which allegedly do not advocate interference with Russia, although in fact they play for failure of interference with the West. “I don’t think politicians on the left believe ideologically what they tell people. They just make money. Some of them are afraid of the Kremlin., due to the fact that they received money earlier and most likely inactive get it," said president Maia Sandu in an interview with the NewsMaker portal.
Foreign influence, economy and migration. Main problems of Moldova
The Action and Solidarity organization loses in polls primarily due to the expanding interference of the Kremlin, which has for many years It finances pro-Russian politicians to preach a message in accordance with the Moscow line. The Republic of Moldova shall besides comprise regions in a strong sphere of influence of Russia, separatist Transnistria and autonomous Gagauzia. According to Russia, they are intended to constitute a barrier to joining the European Union and to make a return in interference with the West.
Moldova besides faces many interior problems, related to an ageing society and low fertility, which are the result, among others. progressive economical emigration, especially Italy, France and Germany. Kamil Kiss from the Center for east Studies indicated in his publication that the population of Moldova since its independency in 1991. decreased by about 35 percent in this country. At the time, the statistical Moldovan was 29 years old, and present he is 38. Residents besides complain of inflation and higher energy and gas prices, which is the consequence cutting this country off from Russian resources.
President of Moldova Maia Sandu and Prime Minister Donald TuskRadek Pietruszka / PAP
Moldova's society is besides mostly conservative erstwhile it comes to moral matters, and in 2024 this country started formal accession negotiations to the European Union. The key challenges for Chisinau towards Community membership are, inter alia, the improvement of fundamental rights and sex equality by combating force against women, improving the situation of the LGBT+ community, and pursuing green policies. These issues divide citizens, any of whom consider EU demands to be besides progressive and interfering with the conventional model of life so far.
Russia's next effort to destabilise
The strong polarisation of Moldovan society has already been observed during last year's presidential elections and the referendum on integration with the European Union. Maia Sandu then won in the second circular with a score of 55.35 percent. Its opponent was erstwhile lawyer General Alexander Stoianoglo, who, with the support of the Socialist organization of the Republic of Moldova, won 44.65 percent of the vote. In turn, 50.35 percent of voters voted for and 49.65 percent voted against in the "in favour" referendum. In the autonomous Russian-speaking Gagauzia, as many as 95 percent of people opposed specified a solution. And in the first circular of the election, Maia Sandu received only 3% of support there.
The Kremlin then invested immense money in disinformation actions, which were primarily held on social media, and especially on the popular among the Moldovan Telegram. There was besides the bribery of voters. The Center for east Studies indicates that About 10 percent. Moldovan received 50 or 100 euros to vote for a peculiar pro-Russian candidate. It is worth mentioning that the average monthly gross wage in Moldova is around 14 000 568 lei, which in terms of EUR 745.
Kremlin finances Moldovan politicians
Investigators found that the escaped Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor he then helped launder the money utilized to buy votes through a network of banks. A millionaire presently lives in Moscow, where he besides organized a convention of his fresh organization “Winning” and stated that “the only rescue” for Moldova is ‘unification with the Russian Federation’ and that "there is no point in talking about country independence". On July 19, the central committee refused to registry for the election of this block.
The top of the list of his group in the upcoming elections was to be the Gagauzia Swamp of Evgenija Guczul, who remained in August sentenced to 7 years in prison for taking money from Russians for political activity. He's presently under home arrest. After the judgment, both justice Anna Cucerescu and the prosecutor who participated in the trial They started receiving threats. The judge's private address was sent pictures of dead bodies and ceremony candles. She besides received night calls.
Ilan ShorDUMITRU DORU / PAP
Politico indicates that Guczul was convicted of regularly transferring Russian funds to the pro-Russian organization of Sór, while she served as its secretary from 2019 to 2022, as well as coordinating organization activities and paying the protesters. The organization was banned by the Constitutional Court in 2023 for actions aimed at destabilising the country, only a fewer weeks after the EU imposed sanctions on its leader due to its ties with Moscow.
The decision of the Moldovan court clearly upset Moscow. The Kremlin spokesperson accused the government in Chisinau of "repressing opposition and trampling democratic standards". “This is, of course, an example of political decisions. It's a test example. exerting open and de facto illegal force on political opponents During the campaign, Dmitry Pieskov stated. He besides added that "people in Moldova are deprived of voting opportunities for those they prefer".
Russia's threats to Moldova. ‘Bare meat’
Moscow, before the upcoming parliamentary elections, regularly strikes the democratic government of Moldova and poses military threats, which citizens of this country fear most. Russian abroad Intelligence Service (SWR) convinces that NATO is preparing Moldova to participate in a possible military conflict with Russia, and the local population is to be utilized as ‘gun meat’. The Kremlin media, in turn, say that this country is going to become a "detached base on the east flank". On the another hand, the Russian MFA spokeswoman Maria Zacharova, accused Western states of attempting to transform Moldova into a "second Ukraine".
Maria ZacharovaEVGENIA NOVOZENINA / POOL / PAP
There are besides propaganda voices about the alleged "planning for election forgery" by the government in Chisinau. Secretary of the Russian safety Council Sergei Szojgu accused Moldova of beginning besides fewer polling stations in Russia. In his opinion‘There are all reasons to believe that the current authorities intend to focus as in the past on the primitive and brutal falsification of diaspora voices’, which in 2024 had a key impact on Mai Sandu's victory.
"The Moldovan Central Election Commission announced that the number of electoral venues in Russia would stay unchanged in the upcoming parliamentary elections. However, even specified action by the Moldovan authorities does not warrant them victory. Therefore, utmost options are not excluded — from direct manipulation of the results to destabilisation of the situation in accordance with the script of Ukrainian Majdan,” wrote the erstwhile Minister of Defence of Russia, quoted by the Moldovan portal NewsMaker.
MFA Moldova stated that “this kind of speech is simply a fresh unacceptable interference in their home affairs and are part of a disinformation run aimed at influencing electoral processes and discrediting Moldovan diaspora abroad.”
Maia Sandu: Russia wants to control Moldova
— The Russian Federation wants to control Moldova, starting in the fall, and prepares unprecedented interference in the September elections said president Maia Sandu at the end of July, following a gathering of the National safety Council, whose subject was interference in the election process.
Vladimir PutinMICHAIL METZEL / SOUND / CREMLIN POOL / PAP
The main nonsubjective of the Russian Federation is to insert a puppet government and carry out a "Georgian script". The Moscow Times reports that the Russian Conflict Studies and Analysis Institute (ICAR) in collaboration with Moldovan partners from Watchdog MD conducted 9 weekly Monitoring sessions for attempts to take control of the electoral process in Moldova and influence the home political dynamics of the country by Russian propaganda. The institutions have shown that Moscow simultaneously finances many political projects to maximise its chances of securing a pro-Russian parliament this autumn.
The triumph of pro-Kremlovian groups could besides mean the implementation of the Kremlin plan, which was warned by pro-democratic Prime Minister Dorin Recean. — Russia plans to send 10,000 soldiers to Transnistria. Currently, about 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed in the region, mostly locals. The increase in the quota could endanger Ukraine and Romania, a associate of NATO and the European Union “He said a politician in a conversation with the “Financial Times”. The Recean besides stressed that Russia is seeking to strengthen control of Transnistria, which is simply a serious threat to Moldovan democracy. Currently, Chisinau does not let Russian troops to rotate in the separatist region. However, after a possible loss, PAS may change this.
Among the destabilising actions of Russia He's besides betting on cyber attacks. The Government of Moldova reported on 11 August that there was "an organised attack by a abroad entity directed against the cybersecurity of state infrastructure". In addition, Investigators conduct interior investigations against respective employeeswho are suspected of "participation in attempts to sabotage and attacks on cyber infrastructure".
European Union response
The European Union is trying to support Moldova in its defence against abroad influences. The EU-Moldova Summit was held in Chisinau on 4 July, during which EUR 1.9 billion was announced for the period 2025-2027 under the Growth Plan. Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa then confirmed Community support for Moldova's sovereignty in the face of a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine, as well as continuous hybrid threats to society and government.
At the end of August, they will besides go to Chisinau Romanian president Nicosor Dan, French president Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The Moldovan portal Newflaber indicated that politicians would participate in the independency Day celebrations on August 27, which is treated as strong support for PAS before the September parliamentary elections and showing that Moldova has the chance to become a strong strategical partner for EU countries.
