The last-minute secret session of the Sejm announced by the President, the cryptocurrency bill and the 2 competitive wellness summits – government and presidential – created an explosive political mix. The debate around the regulation of the cryptocurrency marketplace has turned into a sharp strategical dispute between Donald Tusk's government and the President's camp and Law and Justice.
In “Every week” the guests of Marcin Celiński ed. Beata Grabarczyk and Dr. Robert Sobiech analysed the scenes of ruling decisions and opposition, indicating that the stake is greater than only 1 part of legislation. This is about controlling the communicative and possibly the first so unequivocal effort to tie the Law and Justice with Russian activity in Poland.
Secret session of the Sejm – a demonstration of force or a political smokescreen?
The mystery of the gathering caused rather a stir, although – as the commentators noted – the emotions were present incomparably little than years ago. Krzysztof Bosak wrote in public the day before what would be in the secret part of the meeting, stressing that the following day would be a secret.
Beata Grabarczyk estimated that the cover-up was primarily intended to cover the parallel wellness summit with the president, drawing media attention to Parliament, not to the Presidential Palace.
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Vetted cryptocurrency Act – citizens' safety versus political interest
President Karol Nawrocki vetoed the law implementing the EU directive governing the cryptocurrency market. Veto caused a political storm.
According to the interlocutors, regulations were primarily intended to defend citizens from fraud and to introduce minimum supervision by KNF of exchanges and transactions above certain limits. Grabarczyk pointed out that the deficiency of regulation favours money laundering, the usage of cryptocurrency by criminal groups and Russian and Chinese services, active in this sector for years.
Dr. Sobiech, on the another hand, stressed that the veto of the president has no substantive justification, since the President's Office does not have an analytical apparatus to measure specified a complex regulation.
Moreover, as Grabarczyk noted, the political subject seems to prevail here. She recalled that the owner of 1 of the cryptocurrency exchanges, around which increasing doubts, financed the events of the communities close to the Law and Justice and even paid for the stay of Tomasz Sakiewicz in Monaco. According to the publicist, this may have affected the President's decision.
Tusk: "Mafiosis, Agent and Politics Syndicate"
The Prime Minister, erstwhile appearing at the National Council of the PO, spoke of the "Cryptoafer" as an example of the actions of the "dangerous syndicate", which shows "the face of the mafia, the face of the agent and the face of politics". He announced that the case would proceed and the opponents would "very regret" the rejection of the bill.
According to Grabarczyk, it is an effort to strategically delegate to PiS relationships with the Russian mafia and Russian agentry – a communicative that can be politically very effective if it is maintained for further weeks.
Health services: 2 peaks, zero decision
Parallel meetings – with the Prime Minister and the president – did not bring a breakthrough. Grabarczyk estimates that they were a part of a political game alternatively than a real start to improvement the system, which has been in a structural crisis for years.
Despite the evidence increase in investments – from approx. PLN 190 billion in 2023 to approx. PLN 250 billion in 2024 – the problems of the strategy stay intact. Dr Sobiech pointed out that Poland inactive spends only about 7% of GDP on wellness protection – clearly below the European average – which translates straight into a shorter life expectancy of Poles.
Surveys: The PiS loses ground, but the power strategy can inactive turn around
The latest CBOS survey showed support of 20% for the Law and Justice and about 30% for the Civic Coalition. That's the biggest difference between the 2 parties in years.
However, as Dr Sobiech pointed out, although the trend is clear, present the right as a block of 3 groups (PiS and 2 sections of the Confederate) could inactive gain the seismic majority. The key will be whether the extremist right will keep its growth at the expense of the Law and Justice, or if its leaders encounter legal problems.
Will the cryptocurrency case become an election breakthrough?
According to commentators, yes, but only if the government consistently reveals further threads of investigations and links between cryptocurrency exchanges and right-wing politicians.
If the subject cools down, it will only become a fewer days' "drop". On the another hand, if the Prime Minister is "taking 3 threads at erstwhile – cryptocurrency, Russian agent and PiS politicians", as Grabarczyk noted, this may prove to be highly politically beneficial for the rulers.
