Washington Summit: Kiev's tactical success

On August 18, president Volodymyr Zelenski arrived in Washington with the Presidents of France and Finland, Prime Ministers of large Britain and Italy, Chancellor of the West Germany, and president of the European Commission and Secretary-General of NATO. The intent of the visit was to discuss with president Donald Trump the conditions for ending the war with Russia. The talks lasted over 4 hours. They included the bilateral section (Trump–Zelenski), followed by a broader consultation with European leaders. The American leader declared U.S. readiness to participate in safety guarantees for Kiev, but then reported on social media that the United States would “coordinate” specified guarantees with European countries that would be liable for them— According to him, Vladimir Putin was to agree to this. At the same time, he ruled out Ukraine's ability to gain NATO membership.

The gathering of the Presidents of Zelenski and Trump took place in a good atmosphere, and the Ukrainian leader considered them the best of the erstwhile ones, while highlighting a consistent position with European partners. He besides expressed satisfaction with the discussion on future safety guarantees for Ukraine and supported the thought of his gathering with Putin. Following a telephone conversation by Trump with Putin after an extended consultation, the US president suggested the anticipation of organising first a bilateral gathering of Ukrainian and Russian leaders and then a tripartite 1 – besides with his participation. However, Russian leader Yuri Uszakov did not confirm these plans, stating that "the anticipation of considering raising the negotiating level was being discussed".

Ukraine and Europe have succeeded in neutralising the effects of the Trump Summit with Putin in Alaska, as well as putting force on Moscow to actually engage in negotiations. In turn, the concentration of the open part of the talks on safety guarantees for Kiev, not territorial concessions for Russia, makes the visit to Washington a tactical success of Kiev. At the same time, it did not change the fact that there are inactive fundamental contradictions in the positions of Russia and Ukraine as to the conditions for the end of the war.

Comment

• The success of Kiev is to concentrate talks on future safety guarantees. Although the most crucial will be circumstantial provisions – which in Zelenski's opinion will be formulated within 7-10 days on the basis of the findings of the alleged coalitions willing to coordinate with the US – would be a good start for Ukraine to start peace talks. According to Kiev, these guarantees consist of 2 parts: maintaining a strong army through investments in the production of arms in Ukraine and its purchases in the US (financed by Europe) and political commitments to aid western countries, as close as possible to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Zelenski revealed that Kiev and European partners offered Trump, among others, to acquisition US weapons worth $90 billion (including aircrafts and air defence systems) and to get Ukrainian drones and participate in joint production.

• Despite Kiev's concerns, the issues of possible territorial concessions to Russia did not dominate the public part of the talks. Trump did not rise the issue in the Oval Office, but Zelenski said that it was discussed behind closed doors.

  Faced with erstwhile US pressures on specified concessions, key for Ukraine it became unacceptable to dismiss these demandsbecause of constitutional restrictions and deficiency of public consent. According to Kiev, territorial issues will be addressed at the preparation summit with Putin. In the circumstances of the undisclosed unwillingness of the Kremlin for specified a meeting, and at the same time openness to it Zelenski (without preconditions) the announcement of his organization creates force on the leader of Russia. However, Uszak's words should be interpreted as a veiled form of refusal, at least temporary. Moscow makes Putin's gathering with the president of Ukraine subject to prior forced consent to fundamental Russian conditions.

• The leaders in Washington, D.C., sent a affirmative signal to keep a transatlantic dialog on the end of the war. At the same time, the European leaders failed to push forward any of the previously agreed assumptions regarding negotiations with Russia due to Trump's acceptance of parts of Putin's demands, including the transition to peace talks without prior suspension of fire. The front line does not seem to be the starting point for discussions on territorial issues in connection with leaks of talks on larger territorial concessions from Kiev. The question of expanding force on Russia through further US sanctions remains unanswered. The challenge will be to present a circumstantial European plan for credible safety guarantees for Ukraine. In July, a coalition of volunteers agreed to a tiny military European presence after the end of the war. Coalition of volunteers with safety guarantees for Ukraine: smaller ambitions, more specifics).