The latest poll of the Pollster investigation Institute indicates 2 possible rankings of candidates in the second round. In both variants, Rafał Trzaskowski has the best chance of winning, although rivals – Karol Nawrocki and Sławomir Mentzen – do not intend to return the field easily.
The presidential elections in Poland will take place soon, with the first circular scheduled for Sunday, May 18, and the second circular scheduled for June 1. In the last days before this crucial event, we have examined how the voter support is distributed and who has the best chance of a possible second round.
The latest poll of the Pollster investigation Institute, commissioned by the “Super Express”, presents 2 main variants of the second circular of elections. Interestingly, despite the various rankings of candidates, 1 favourite clearly emerges.
Screenplay 1: Trzaskowski vs Nawrocki
Rafał Trzaskowski, candidate of the Civic Coalition, and Karol Nawrocki, supported by the Law and Justice, are the first of the scenarios analysed. According to the poll, Trzaskowski enjoyed more support — as many as 54% of the respondents pointed to his victory. Nawrocki can number on 46% of the vote.
Screenplay 2: Trzaskowski vs Mentzen
The second option assumes a second circular with the participation of Rafał Trzaskowski and Sławomir Mentzen from the Confederate, who in fresh studies has gained a 3rd position and inactive has a real chance to advance to the final. In this ranking, Trzaskowski can number on even greater support — as much as 55%, while Mentzen would gain 45% of the vote.
Expert comment
Politologist, Prof. Bartłomiej Bishop, asked about these 2 scenarios, stressed that the advantage between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki would be minimal – "it would be a fight for razor blades", he stated. This shows that although the leader is clear, the fight for the office of president can be very even.
Stability of support in fresh days
Analysis of the results of the last week shows that support for the main candidates remains comparatively stable. In the pair Trzaskowski – Nawrocki differences ranged from 55% to 45% and 56% to 44% in favour of Trzaskowski. These results propose that the moods of voters just before the first circular did not change significantly.
The survey was conducted by the Pollster investigation Institute on 13–15 May 2025. The CAWI method, or web survey, was utilized on a typical example of 1697 adult Poles. The maximum statistical mistake of the survey was about 3%.
A fewer days before the first circular of presidential elections Rafał Trzaskowski seems to have the advantage, regardless of who will face him in the second round. However, politics can be unpredictable and much more can happen. The upcoming vote will so be an chance to yet resolve this competition.
