First the Ukrainian Operation “The Spider”, then the attack at Marinówka Military Airport, the attack in Kursk Oblast and the Kirovian base in Crimea... The analysis of available photographic materials clearly indicates: June was a disastrous period for the Russian Federation Air Force, possibly the worst since the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine.
On June 27, a series of explosions occurred at Marinovka Air Base in the Volgograd region. Shortly thereafter, the safety Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported the paralysis of Su-34 front bombers standing in this base. The first reports referred to 4 destroyed machines, then were corrected to 2 bombers destroyed and 2 damaged. There was besides a recording of a smoke-covered base on which the explosions followed, but satellite images with visible wrecks of 2 machines and places from which possibly 2 more damaged bombers were towed only on June 30.
The attack on Marinowska – not only successful, it is inactive comparatively well documented and confirmed by the Russian origin – is the culmination of the full hard month. June 2025 was 1 of the worst months of the Russian Federation Air-Space Force throughout the ongoing war in Ukraine.
It was already June 1st. Operation SpiderDuring which 4 bases of Russian strategical bombers were attacked by 117 tiny suicide FPV drones. These machines were hidden in specially prepared double bottom trucks and so smuggled. The drivers were accidental Russians, who were ordered to deliver vehicles close the bases under false pretenses. Subsequently, at least 11 long-range bombers (seven Tu-95MS and 4 Tu-22M3) were struck in a well-synchronized operation, and thus almost 10% of all Russian aircraft of this class were destroyed. An An-12 transport aircraft was destroyed in the same attack.
The failure measures completed the shooting on June 7 over the Kursk circuit of the Su-35S fighter (perhaps by F-16 supported by the aircraft's early informing Saab 340 AEW) and the failure of the Su-25 combat field aircraft, which occurred on June 13. The second either fell apart in the air as a consequence of a besides violent maneuver at low altitude, or was accidentally hit by a rocket by its wingman. In addition, on 28 June there was a suicide drone attack (WA – 1 way attack) on the Kirovian base in Crimea. Unconfirmed photographic information tells of 3 helicopters destroyed there, including dense Mi-26.
In this way June became the most tragic period for Russian aviation since the outbreak of a full-scale war. Only March 2022 could have been harder erstwhile 9 Su-25 combat field aircraft, six Su-34 front bombers, 4 Su-30SM multitasking aircraft and as many as 31 helicopters were confirmed: 7 Ka-52, 2 Mi-28, six Mi-24, 10 Mi-8 different versions, and six machines whose remains could not be identified.
In turn, the full confirmed losses of Russian aviation in this war (including accidents) are 15 strategical bombers, 2 A-50U early informing aircraft, Il-22M-11 command aircraft, 123 tactical aviation machines, mostly state-of-the-art and manufactured in the last decade, and 12 transports. A full of over 150 machines! Thus more than 10% of the full fleet of Russian combat aircraft was lost, which on paper counted 1.5 1000 combat aircraft in February 2022. However, it was alternatively about 1.2–1,3,000 machines. A akin confirmed interest besides applies to losses in the Russian chopper fleet.
The losses confirmed, of course, are only the minimum of what could have been destroyed. For example, authoritative Ukrainian sources claim that Ukraine's Armed Forces destroyed much more due to the fact that 420 aircraft and 340 helicopters. This data may, of course, be inflated for various reasons, but may besides indicate that the shootings and destructions of Russian aircraft at airports were more than confirmed by photograph material.
In addition to the confirmed cases of machines damaged and undocumentable usage of combat aircraft in more than 3 years of intense conflict, it can be assumed that Russia's air force is present a much little dangerous opponent than it was 4 years ago. Their possible has not been restored through the production of fresh aircraft. During the next 3 years of war, the Russians commissioned between 20 and 30 machines per year. By mid-2025, the manufacture most likely only transferred 8 machines to the SPFR – 2 Su-34M and six Su-35S.
All of this allows us to hope that Moscow's possible in the air has eroded and headed for an ever-increasing collapse, giving second place in the planet ranking of the People's Liberation Army of China. All of this will happen despite the austerity of the Russian air force, which for this reason never won dominance in the air over Ukraine, despite crushing, it would seem, an advantage. This collapse, given Russia's economical and industrial condition, seems to be irreversible. Many classes of aircraft, specified as interceptors or long-range bombers, are not produced in Russia at all, and this kind of device has not even been designed. It can be assumed that the Russian Air Force will be the formation that will shortly lose its abilities if the current conflict continues.
