Russia is expanding its strength in the Baltic Sea region: what this could mean for Europe

In the light of fresh reports from Finland and Sweden about its intention to join NATO, Russia is taking steps to strengthen its forces in the Baltic Sea region. The restoration of Leningrad Military territory is simply a consequence to this expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance in the northern part of Europe.

According to a study by the Finnish National Defence Academy, Russia is considering the anticipation of a war in the Baltic Sea region beginning the next decade. Russian forces may effort to carry out "unexpected attacks on a limited scale" on smaller NATO states, in a lane from northern Norway, through Finland to the Baltic States, to "paralyze NATO's decision-making process".

One script may be to effort to master parts of Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Sweden to safe Russia's strategically crucial Murman region in the Arctic region. The study on the "future and future of Leningrad Military District" highlighted that Russia has adopted a "defensive" attitude at the Finnish border since the Cold War, focusing the most many forces in another parts of the country.

As a consequence of the reform, with the beginning of 2024, the Leningrad territory was one more time separated from the Western Military District, including the Northern Fleet in its structure. any forms of military activity have besides been restored. It takes respective years to make the essential infrastructure for fresh units (i.e. build barracks, training and maintenance facilities or social facilities) in this district, but as long as the fighting on the Ukrainian front continues, these changes will be slow.

According to the military professor, Major Juha Kukkola, the author of the report, with the beginning of the next decade, the number of Russian armed forces in Leningrad Military territory can double from the current 40,000 to as many as 100,000. However, as he stressed, the very possible of this district, without additional support, will not be adequate to conquer any 3rd country.

In 2024, the Russian army, in consequence to Finland's entry into NATO, besides reported that it moved the rocket brigade armed with Iskander ballistic missiles to the border region of Karelia. She besides conducted strategical maneuvers on Lake Ladoga, for the first time in past introducing rocket corvettes to this reservoir, which were to be equipped with long-range cruise missiles Calibr.

Ladoga, the largest lake in Europe, is located east of Finland and north of Russian Petersburg. This is simply a strategical area controlled by Russia, which has its sphere of influence there.

It is worth noting that Russia already has a crucial military advantage in the Baltic Sea region. According to data from 2022, Russia has about 20,000 soldiers in Leningrad Military District, while Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Sweden can bring together about 10,000 soldiers.

In the context of these events, the expansion of NATO in the Baltic Sea region appears as an effort to balance military forces in the region. However, as prof. Kukkola claims, Russia has no intention of giving up its interests in the region and will search to strengthen its forces to keep control of the Baltic Sea region.

Consequently, the expansion of NATO in the Baltic Sea region and the Russian increase in force in the Leningrad Military territory creates a situation that could lead to a future conflict.