Russia's putting up a barrier. ‘Ukraine may have no choice’

• Russia puts 2 key conditions for peace with Ukraine: designation of Crimea as Russian and resignation of Ukraine from its pursuit of NATO.

• These conditions are unacceptable for Ukraine, but its weaker negotiating position may force concessions.

• Negotiations are at an first phase and their final results stay unpredictable.

• More crucial information can be found on Interii main page

Donald Trump gathering with Vladimir Putin in Alaska has importantly accelerated the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on the end of the war. And although it is simply a long way to go, the first steps have been taken. The president has a dominant position present Russian Federation.

It is Putin who dictates the terms and it is he who determines what must happen to the peace or even the ceasefire. The Russians prevail on the front, and Ukraine is on the defensive and there is no reason to impose a speech of negotiations. Putin does it.

After a gathering in Alaska, there was quite a few information about the conditions under which possible peace would be concluded. Conditions that will satisfy Moscow. There are quite a few them, but the key and most common are two. Firstly, Ukraine is to recognise that Crimea belongs to Russia. Secondly, he is to quit his quest to join NATO.

The Crimea will be Russian? Key condition Putin

About these 2 conditions on Monday morning, Donald Trump wrote on the network, which on the same day to meet Volodymyr Zelenski and European leaders in the White House. Are these 2 key conditions so irrefutable and Russia will not quit on them? And if so, can Ukraine accept it?

– These are the starting points. The Russians bid very high, Trump repeats their terms. However, he knows, as well as Zelenski, that this position is unacceptable for the Ukrainian side – says Interii Nedim Useinov, a politician from Crimea, working in think tank German Marshall Fund.

– On Crimea, the president of Ukraine has no mandate to agree to specified a thing. It would gotta be. referendum And the full nation would gotta speak. However, this is what negotiations look like. Pages begin with the highest expectations, so that then there is something to come down from – says Useinov.

Trouble is, despite his reluctance to Russian demands Ukraine present has clearly weaker negotiating cards. As he tells us Dr. Malina Kaszuba from the University of Siedlce, possibly Ukraine will simply have no choice but to accept specified or akin conditions.

– Ukraine is clearly opposed by president Zelenski's mouth to any territorial concessions towards the Russian Federation, but I think that it will have no choice. specified a territorial loss, if not accepted by the Ukrainians themselves, will be forced, at least, by force from the US. Unfortunately, but any territorial losses to the detriment of Ukraine will happen – says Dr. Kashuba.

Is Ukraine going to quit on NATO?

The second most repeated postulate is waiving Ukraine's aspirations for NATO membership. In this case, it seems that the case is somewhat little complicated.

– In this regard, Ukraine itself has small to say. If there is no agreement, even the US, then Ukrainian membership of the alliance will not be considered at all. So this subject will not be discussed due to the fact that the invitation of the alliance itself must be very clear – says Dr. Malina Kaszuba of the University of Siedlce.

Useinov: – Trump, West and Ukraine agree that this post should be repeated in 1 line with this highest condition, or Crimea. If Putin comes out with a request to recognise Crimea de jure as Russian, then we come out that Ukraine does not enter NATO, although it would seem that this has long been agreed by all parties. It rises to the same rank, so that there's something to get off.

So if both conditions are the starting positions, then how can the negotiations themselves look, and where can the parties stop?

– Putin may come down from the fact that Ukraine de jure does not accept Crimea, but he accepts that it is lost for a time and will stay under Russian control. The West can at the same time abolish any of the sanctions for the Crimea, and that is what Putin is all about. Plus: If Ukraine doesn't enter NATO, what do you give in return? This may be a closer cooperation with NATO or a deficiency of Russia's consequence to Ukraine's road to the European Union – believes Useinov.

“It is Ukraine that is in more hurry”

Interii speakers agree that negotiations between the parties are actually just beginning. They can take time, and the consequence is unpredictable. Before a possible peace is reached, there must be a ceasefire and then a truce. So it'll take a long time.

– This is just a tiny step towards a peace agreement. I think we might be dealing with at least a fewer twists. The establishment of a common position will require a serious consensus of the Ukrainian State, European States, the US and Russia. A gathering in Alaska shows that Putin bids advanced and will effort to keep specified a position – says Dr hab. Kashuba.

The trial started in Alaska. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian side and the West have less arguments. It's Ukraine in more hurry than Putin. Russia wants to buy time, due to the fact that he hopes that the Russian troops will get the remainder of the Donetsk Oblast, strengthen positions in the Zaporosian Oblast, get the city Zaporizhia. For him time is precious, due to the fact that his troops metre by metre occupy more lands – convinces Nedim Useinov.

Łukasz Szpyra, Interia