The text uses excerpts from the author's publications: W. Poczta, Agriculture in a trap of illusory expectations, “Pomorski Thinkletter” 2022, no.3(10)/22; W. Poczta, Agriculture in the improvement of the Polish village 2044, in: Polish village 2044. imagination of Development, ed. M. Halamska, M. Kłodziński, M. Stanny, IRWiR PAN, Warszawa 2023; W. Post, Common agricultural policy of the European Union and food security, in: Food safety of Poland and the world, ed. S. Kowalczyk, R. Sobiecki, SGH Oficina Wydawniczna, Warszawa 2024.
For more than 20 years, Polish agriculture has been an crucial part of the agricultural sector of the European Union and functions and develops under the conditions defined by the common agricultural policy (CAP). Both Polish agriculture and the EU as a full operate in the global food production strategy – it affects and depends on this system. The EU agricultural sector, despite many reforms and changes to the CAP, should proceed to fulfil the inalienable and most crucial function of food producers, thereby ensuring food safety for citizens of the European community.
Table 1. Degree of food self-sufficiency (relationship of production volume to home consumption in physical terms) for selected agri-food products in EEC/EU (%)1
a – 1958/59-1962/63 average
b — without citrus
Food availability is linked to the volume of agricultural production. The ratio of production volume to consumption volume is defined as food self-sufficiency. Food self-sufficiency in the EEC countries has been importantly improved by the CAP instruments in the short word (in the first period of implementation of the CAP) (Table 1). In 1960, for most agricultural and food products analysed, The EEC did not accomplish food self-sufficiency – and this, despite the mostly lower level of consumption of many of them, mainly products of animal origin. As early as 1981, this rate has been far higher for the vast majority of products, whereas from 1990 to now, food self-sufficiency below 100 is only present for vegetable and fruit fats and in any years besides sugar. During this period, the number of associate States of the Communities/Union has changed, which, of course, has not been without impact on this indicator. The function of the CAP was and is to guarantee food safety for EU citizens (especially in a global crisis or change).
Food self-sufficiency in the EEC countries has improved rapidly through the application of CAP instruments. As early as 1981, this rate has been far higher for the vast majority of products, whereas from 1990 to now, food self-sufficiency below 100 is only present for vegetable and fruit fats and in any years besides sugar.
Table 2. EU countries in the planet food safety ranking in 20222
Important information on the agricultural position of Poland and the European Union in terms of food production and availability is provided by the Global Food Safety Index (GFSI)3. It includes an assessment of food safety in 113 countries, including 19 EU countries (Table 2). The analysis is carried out in 4 key pillars of food security: affordability (economic accessibility), access to food, quality and food safety and sustainable improvement and adaptation. The index is based on a dynamic comparative model and is constructed with 68 quantitative and qualitative characteristics (factors) of food safety. investigation on the GFSI has been conducted by the Economist Impact since 2012. In 2012-2019, the GFSI continued to grow globally. In the same period, all 19 EU countries surveyed saw a crucial increase in the rate and reached 62.6 out of 100 possible points in 2019. Between 2019 and 2020, i.e. during the COVID-19 pandemic, the GFSI was reduced to 62,2.
The deterioration of the GFSI index between 2019 and 2020 besides affected most of the 19 EU countries surveyed. Despite the decline, it remains far higher in EU countries than in 113 countries surveyed. The food safety situation in the EU is 1 of the best in the world. Among the 20 countries with the highest GFSI index, as many as 12 are EU countries, while among the first 30 are 15 EU countries, including Poland in 21st place. These results confirm the function of the CAP as both improving food safety in EU associate States and stabilising its advanced level.
In the "Pomeranian Thinkletter" No. 3(0)/22, I wrote: "Population growth and changing diets make request for food constantly increasing on a global scale" and that "At the same time, there are fresh expectations regarding the wellness quality of food produced, the simplification of greenhouse gas emissions, the simplification of consumption of certain industrial inputs (mineral fertilisers, plant protection products, antibiotics), the simplification of water consumption, the improvement of livestock welfare or the preservation of biodiversity". I besides pointed out that it is hard for all these challenges and expectations to refuse to be right, and "It is besides common for consumers to anticipate at least comparatively inexpensive food. This means that agriculture must meet the increasing and increasingly diverse demands on the same or even decreasing agricultural land, in another words, the increasing request for food, feed, energy and natural materials without further reducing agricultural production, while maintaining biodiversity, care for the environment and reducing inputs."
The food safety situation in the EU is 1 of the best in the world. Among the first 30 countries with the highest GFSI index are as many as 15 EU countries, including Poland in 21st place. These results confirm the function of the CAP as both improving food safety in EU associate States and stabilising its advanced level.
This task is and will be able to manage strong economical players. The economical strength of the vast majority of them will be mostly determined by land resources, with the increasing importance of financial and human capital. This will let a wider group of farms with little land resources to win economically (market) and socially.
Poland's agricultural sector is expected to find marketplace economy conditions and accession to the EU has proved to be a catalyst for development. The ability of agriculture to participate in the Single European marketplace and the support for EU funds has started a process of very profound change. A group of farmers-entrepreneurs, usually well-educated, with crucial resources of financial, physical and human capital, including intellectual, developed rapidly in Poland. A fresh group of household farms with business characteristics was formed alongside the comparatively fewer entities created from erstwhile state farms, on the way of expanding economical and social links with the environment. From over 1.3 million farms (according to alternatively consistent estimates) production on the marketplace (although this is frequently a tiny volume of goods) account for about 400 000 operators4. This figure is likely to decrease in the following years at an expanding rate5. In the future, it is this group of farms that will decide on the size, structure and method of agricultural production.
In the close future, a large proportion of household farms with business characteristics will implement or full apply farming-specific production methods 4.0 which will include management of production processes, including the optimisation of environmental impacts, but besides the holding as an economical operator.
They are already rather widely applying the principles of precision agriculture (Agriculture 3.0). In the close term, a crucial proportion of them will implement or full apply the production methods circumstantial to Agriculture 4.0, which will include the management of production processes, but besides the holding as an economical operator, taking into account forecasts of the scale of request and prices for inputs and agricultural products. The farm management will besides include the optimisation of environmental impacts. The essence of Agriculture 4.0 will be increasing and complete databases and their processing, the usage of artificial intelligence, as well as the net of things or virtual reality. Rather, there will be a smooth transition from Agriculture 4.0 to more multidisciplinary Agriculture 5.0. In Agriculture 5.0, digital technologies are expected to interact with biotechnology, which will combine the request for increasingly efficient production with the nonsubjective of full climate neutrality and political and social expectations. There will besides be an intelligent intensification of production, which means that it will increase by reducing the level of conventional inputs (including energy, mineral fertilisers, means of production and even feed). Supporting farmers' decision-making process, and the participation of AI in their decision-making, by advanced technologies, should bring about a reconciliation of productivity and sustainability6.
We will increasingly see autonomous tractors and agricultural machinery in agricultural fields. Even greater usage of robots will be found in animal production. It will be a condition for maintaining any of its directions in the sizes desired in the marketplace and socially. Already today, not only in the countries with the most developed agriculture, but frequently in Poland, modern technologies are essential for dairy production. presently it is the most absorbing farmer and his household direction of agricultural production. Farms are increasingly withdrawing from milk production not so much for economical reasons, but due to the large regular work done throughout the year. Without robotic dairy production milk will become a scarce and costly commodity7.
Farms utilizing precision farming methods, and shortly mainly agriculture 4.0 and 5.0, will decide on food security. Agricultural production in these entities will be net zero-emission. However, advanced investment expenditure, the level of human capital and a sufficiently large scale of farm production and policy-making (including the CAP) will stay challenges to stimulate this development. In the agricultural sector, besides in Poland, improvement processes covering both growth (production and productivity) and structural and technological transformation are necessary. It must so be based on building greater technological and technological possible and on the usage of cognition in different fields of science. cognition and modern technologies should be the primary focus in the improvement of agriculture.
We will increasingly see autonomous tractors and agricultural machinery in agricultural fields. Even greater usage of robots will be found in animal production, for example in dairy production. Without robotization, milk will become a scarce and costly commodity.
Modernity, including digital modernity, is simply a fundamental consequence to the challenges of the future and at the same time the way to the improvement of all agriculture and farms. This is simply a key condition for ensuring food security, economic, social and environmental success of agriculture and agrarian areas, but besides for the sustainable socio-economic improvement of the full country.
1 W. Post, The common agricultural policy of the European Union and food security, in: Food safety in Poland and the world, ed. S. Kowalczyk, R. Sobiecki, SGH Oficina Wydawniczna, Warsaw 2024. Based on: Statistisches Jahrbuch über Ernährung Landwirtschaft und Forsten, appropriate yearbooks; FAOSTAT data. Own calculations.
2 Ibid.
3 Economist Impact, Global Food safety Index 2022.
4 Based on data Common Agricultural Census 2020.
5 Today's situation does not full reflect the prevailing opinions that there are 1 or 2 farmers left in the countryside. Currently, the number of villages in Poland exceeds 43 thousand, and agrarian villages are over 52 thousand. This means that, on average, there are respective another farms in 1 village that keep any kind of marketplace connection.
6 The president Agriculture 5.0 or 4.0? You can't do it without artificial intelligence., ‘Agroconsumer’, 25.06.2024, https://agroconsumer.pl/agriculture-5-0-czy-4-0-non-artificial-intelligence-sie-no-da/ [online access].
7 An alternate can be animal production carried out only in large farms based on employed labour, with a change in the work system, full days off work and a vacation break. On the another hand, I do not envisage replacing products of animal origin (milk, eggs, meat) on a massive scale with plant substitutes or synthetics. Firstly, it will be hard to get all the nutritional advantages, and secondly, which is seldom mentioned, there is no evidence that this production will be more environmentally friendly and climate-friendly.
