Recommendations on electoral tourism must be based on 2 basic elements – the estimated number of seats in a given constituency, for which the list we support and the vote in a constituency, understood as the average number of votes in a single constituency, is fought. In my recommendations I follow the iron regulation – if individual decides to leave and vote in another constituency, he votes for the same organization for which he would give his vote where he lives. Electoral tourism must be neutral for national support for individual opposition lists
When deciding to vote in another constituency, vote for the candidate you are convinced of. Take the time to compare candidates in the constituency where you vote.
The advice is based on the state of cognition at the end of day 9.10.20203.
Anyone making a decision to vote in another constituency must be aware that his decision may contribute to a decline in the support of his preferred list in the constituency from which he leaves, which may consequence in a smaller number of seats being obtained in that constituency by the organization he supports. The direction of electoral tourism is chosen so that the likelihood that this vote will contribute to an increase in the number of seats in the mark territory is greater than the likelihood of losing the mandate in the constituency.
Left – 9.10.2023
In 2019, the Left, with a nationwide score of 12.56%, won 49 tickets. In 6 districts, she achieved besides small support to get her first seat in the district. These were conservative regions of Poland, where there is no city in the territory above 200 thousand. The PiS received over 50% support there, and the votes of the Left voters were wasted.
Number of votes (in thousands) won in constituency by the Left and number of mandates (colours) obtained in the 2019 Sejm election.
This year, the problem of constituency, where the Left may not get adequate support for the first constituency mandate, may be even more severe. I want the Left the best election consequence possible. beginning electoral lists for civilian candidates is simply a good move, and a well-run electoral run can make the consequence akin to that of 2019.
The proposed electoral tourism strategy for the Left is to usage votes in districts where the Left has no real chance of having a mandate and supporting those districts where the Left's mandates are threatened. For districts with the largest cities where the Left fights for the second, and in the case of Warsaw for the 3rd mandate, the electoral tourism strategy assumes voting in these districts.
District 14 fresh Sącz – posted flag for voters from districts of 12 Chrzanów and 15 Tarnów
The Malopolska districts No. 12, 14 and 15 are circumstantial – no large cities, conservative residents and fewer elected MPs – 8 for territory No. 12, 10 for territory No. 14 and 9 for territory No. 15. The low number of elected Members translates into a advanced electoral threshold in these districts. In order to win 1 mandate, you request to get support of about 9-10% for territory 12 and about 8.2 – 9.5% for territory 15. In territory 14, that threshold is about 8%. Without any electoral strategy with a very advanced probability bordering the Left in 2023, this consequence will not be achieved in these districts. The method for extra tickets in these 3 districts is to bet on 1 of them. My advice where to fight for the first ticket is territory 14 of Nowy Sącz.The advice for electoral tourism is the departure of voters supporting the Left from districts 12 and 15 and voting for the Left in territory 14. In my advice between these 3 districts the logistics issues prevailed, territory 14 is comparatively easy to scope from the largest cities of districts 12 and 15.
Regions of Rzeszów and Krosno
Podkarpacie is simply a state where support for the Left is below average for the country. The acquisition of the first mandate in territory 23 of Rzeszów is at hazard and the acquisition of the mandate in territory 22 of Krosno, with current polling rates of around 10%, is virtually impossible. The advice of electoral tourism is the departure of voters supporting the Left from the territory of 22 Krosno and voting for the Left in territory No. 23 of Rzeszów. The aim is to supply a single mandate in Rzeszów.
Radom Districts, Piotrków Trybunalski, Płock
District 17 Radom is hard for the Left. Winning the first mandate here is, with current polling rates around 10%, unlikely. With territory 17 bordering 2 districts where Left fights for the first mandate – No. 10 Piotrków Trybunalski and No. 16 Płock. The advice of electoral tourism is the departure of voters supporting the Left from districts 17 and voting in territory no. 10 Piotrków Trybunalski. It is besides possible to support more than 1 territory based on voters of the Left from the Radom district. For this minute I would concentrate on 1 district, if this plan were to be rapidly popularized by the voters of the Left, there would most likely be a space to leave territory 17 besides to territory 16 Płock. This would be so logistically simple that the town of Grójec in the Radom district, where the Left has comparatively greater support, is well connected by road to Mszczonov, which is located in the Płocki district.
Large Town Districts – Warsaw, Wrocław, Kraków, Poznań, Łódź
In districts with these 5 largest cities in Poland, the Left fights for two, and in the case of Warsaw for 3 tickets. Based on the volume of voice alone, which for these districts is smaller than the national average, suggests going to neighboring districts. However, in a situation where specified a decline in left-wing voters would consequence in only 1 mandate, or 2 mandates in the case of Warsaw, the hazard is besides high. A advice for the voters of the Left in the districts of No. 3 Wrocław, No. 9 Łódź, No. 13 Kraków, No. 19 Warsaw, No. 39 Poznań is simply a vote at the place of residence.
Other districts
In most districts of western Poland, the Left has adequate support for 1 mandate, and in any it can fight for 2 mandates. In which districts there is simply a chance for 2 tickets is hard to predict. It is so impossible to present a advice for electoral tourism for left voters in another electoral districts at this moment.
It remains to be decided whether it is worth to usage electoral tourism for left-wing voters in east Poland. This applies mainly to districts No. 7 Chełm, No. 6 Lublin and No. 18 Siedlce.
Summary – Left
The Left has to make certain its voters across the country in fresh days of the run that the votes cast on this list will not be wasted.
Would specified a strategy based on the strategical "submission" of any constituency realize the voters of the Left and would it not be regarded as a weakness?
I'll answer that with a hypothetical example of a voter. Mr. Jan is 40 today, surviving in Tarnów. always since he was 18, he's always voting for the Left. In 2005, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 his voice was wasted, Lefty did not win any mandate in this district. erstwhile Mr. Jan understands that the candidate of the Left in territory 14 can truly fight for a mandate with his support in the form of electoral tourism, I think he will be pleased and feel that his voice will not be wasted for the first time in his life.
