Test results European Financial Congress (ECF), based on the latest macroeconomic consensus from December 2025, show a clear image dualism of the Polish economy.
Data reflecting opinions 39 leading Polish economistsindicate very good condition of the real economywith deterioration in the sustainability of public finances.
1. Optimistic website: real economy (2026)
Experts foretell that Poland will keep dynamic growth in 2026 and inflation will stay under control.
Macroeconomic projections for 2026:
GDP growth:3.7%
Acceleration towards erstwhile years, driven by investments and funds from KPO.Inflation (average annual):2.7%
Return to the inflation mark area NBP (2.5% by 1 percent point).Increase in consumption:3.4%
Stable home request thanks to expanding real income.Investment growth:9.0%
Key driver of growth – the effect of cumulative expenditure co-financed by EU funds.Unemployment rate (BAEL):2.9%
One of the lowest levels in the EU; a persistent labour market.Pay dynamics:6.3%
Remuneration continues to grow faster than inflation, although growth slows down gradually.Reference rate of NBP:3.6%
Expected effect of the cycle of interest rate reductions with a fall in inflation.
2. Pessimistic website: public finances (GG)
The another side of the medal is increasing borrowing needs of the State, advanced structural deficit and rising debt.
In accordance with the Union methodology ESA 2010, the concepts of deficit and debt mention to General government (General Government, GG).
GG deficit and debt forecasts (2026-2028):
GG Deficit:
2026: 6.5% of GDP
2027: 6.0% of GDP
2028: 5.3% of GDP
Debt GG (Union methodology):
2026: 66.1% of GDP
2027: 69.5% of GDP
2028: 72.1% of GDP
3. Poland against the background of Europe – comparison
Forecast government debt (% of GDP) from 2026 to 2028:
Poland : 66.1% → 69.5% → 72.1%
Germany: 65.1% → 68.0% → 68.5%
At the same time, there are countries with public debt well exceeds 100% of GDPAnd yet there was no collapse in public finances:
Greece: 151,2%
Italy: 138.3%
France: 115.8%
Belgium: 106.2%
Spain: 103.4%
Should Disaster Be Expected?
Nope. The level of Poland's debt will stay lower than the average for the euro area (approx. 88% of GDP).
However, the debt trajectory and the persistent advanced deficit make the situation is subject to crucial fiscal risks.
Poland makes up for the cosmicly costly negligence of the Law and Justice Government:
• Investment,
• in the arms expenditure sector,
• energy transformation.
This combination makes the crisis script unbaseable, fiscal policy mistake margin remains small.
