After 35 years of dynamic development, the Polish economy faces a fundamental change in the growth model. – Its current engines are moving out, and before the country the task of transforming towards economy 3.0, based on innovation and digitization – This is Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist of the Leviathan Confederation. Key assets, specified as strategical location and educated human capital, are inactive potential, but their usage requires strategical planning, diversification of exports and revision of regulatory burdens specified as the EU ETS2.
– For the past 35 years, we have been developing through EU funds, human capital and low labour costs. In the next decade we see a powerful wall ahead of us and we request to jump into economical improvement into a completely different model of economy, called 3.0, based, for example, on innovation, digitization, but it will be a long-term process, arduous and not necessarily a success for Poland. – says news agency Mariusz Zielonka. "Looking at the way we are developing, we are inactive a green island on the map of the European Union. We have close to 3-percent growth. But if we look at the fact that we are increasing due to the fact that we consume, and there are less and less of us all year, then we see that the consumer component is exhausted in the Polish economy and it is time to act more strategically.
As calculated by the Polish economical Institute, Poland's GDP per capita increased by 209 percent between 1990 and 2023. Thirty-five years ago, in PPPs (the purchasing power parity), it accounted for 41% of the average GDP of the EU countries today. By 2023 it was already 81 percent. In absolute figures it increased more than 10 times since 1995, erstwhile it amounted to about PLN 350 billion, to over PLN 3.6 trillion in 2024. Poland is inactive 1 of the fastest increasing economies in Europe. In the second 4th of this year, it grew by 3.3 percent year-on-year as compared to growth by 3 percent in the full 2024. The growth of the Polish economy is driven by consumption, although economists have been counting on a visible improvement in investments since the quarter, which is to be, among another things, the consequence of the absorption of funds from KPO.
– So far we have had quite a few advantages that have allowed us to grow and stand out against the European Union. We've got a fewer more tricks up our sleeve. surely our position, which allows us to be a transmission hub between Western Europe and east Europe or Asia, allows us to bring business to us and at the same time with this business comes besides know-how – is calculated by the economist. – We inactive have large possible in the human capital of educated young people who can be the backbone of this growth. We besides have a driven economy through wage increases, we live better all year and this affects how we are seen outside Europe, which at the same time attracts investment in the longer term.
However, the current growth engines are slow moving out. In fresh decades, Poland has developed thanks to the influx of funds from Brussels, but besides to inexpensive labour, Polish entrepreneurship and strong unions (mainly exports) with the German economy, which for years has been an EU train horse. However, this device jammed after cutting off inexpensive gas from Russia. Chancellor Friedrich Merz admitted that the German economy is facing structural problems. Meanwhile, 1 4th of Polish trade is based on trade with Germany. In addition, employees' salaries in Poland increase faster than productivity.
– Our – or the European Union in a broader position – the main problem is that we are not reviewing our plans. We inactive want to introduce the ETS2 in a time of very geopolitical instability. We say China, we say the US, so Europe should review its plans at a faster pace, which can have a very negative impact on European companies, including Polish companies, as well as citizens in Europe, due to the fact that this strategy imposes further burdens, de facto removing our competitiveness from what is happening in Europe and in the planet – indicates the weaknesses of Mariusz Zielonka.
The rapidly increasing budget deficit and public sector debt is an increasingly serious problem for the Polish economy. For 2026, the government planned budget gross of about PLN 647 billion and expenditure of about PLN 918.9 billion, which means a deficit of PLN 271.7 billion, or 6.5% of GDP. According to the chief economist of the Confederate Leviathan, this budget is so tight that any unforeseen expenditure may undermine its stability. This was reflected in September by 2 rating agencies, Fitch and Moody’s, lowering the rating position from unchangeable to negative.
– We have never played and will never play a key function in the area of production. We already have any niches, specified as battery production or electrical car production, not necessarily personal. Automotive is rather a large manufacture in the Polish manufacture and can be a flywheel in the future erstwhile we effort to diversify our exports more – indicates the economist. – At the minute we mainly sale to Western Europe, Germany is the main recipient of our exports. However, it seems essential to diversify exports in order to find fresh outlets for our products.
The chance for Poland may be to join the informal G20 group, in which the Polish side has already participated respective times, and Polish politicians are increasingly seeking specified invitations. In early September, president Karol Nawrocki informed of Donald Trump's invitation to the G20 summit to be held in 2026 in Miami. This motion is interpreted as the beginning of Poland's integration into the most crucial countries in the world, deciding on financial policy. Especially since Poland's GDP has late exceeded $1 trillion, which would be an additional argument.
– This gives us a more visible benefit, a certain geopolitical proximity to the most crucial decisions that are made on the global phase – we will be participants in the most crucial decisions that are made among the most developed countries. This may affect our investment attractiveness – emphasises Mariusz Zielonka.
