With Marcin Palade, a man who knows best about the polls of organization support, public support, individual support, he talks in the programme "Hello, this is Earth" Krzysztof Ziemec.
Will support for Karol Nawrocki truly fall before the elections and Mentzen will go up?
Charles Nawrocki is falling and Mentzen is going up. In mid-March, it is that among the strong voters Mentzen has 20 percent and Nawrocki has 24 percent. Given the mistake in the measurements, it can be said that it is already very close to the draw. The first presidential measurements took place in November. Then the difference between them was 16-17 percent points. It fell to 4 pp right now. In a very clear growth trend is Mentzen, and Karol Nawrocki is in trouble. I think what will happen in March and April will be crucial here. Then we will know the full list of candidates and we will gotta watch the polls more carefully due to the fact that they will include those who will be on the ballot.
Many times I've heard PiS politicians say polls are rigged, pulled. But Mentzen besides says not to trust the polls due to the fact that they're not precisely true. So what's it like? Who's falsifying the polls and why?
I'd be careful here. As to the precision of measurements, the experience of the last 2 or 3 decades shows that in Poland we clearly have a problem with this. The problem, which is not only attributed to us, due to the fact that it is adequate to remember what was in the Romanian presidential election in December, what was in the United States. After all, we had an election in Greenland precisely 2 weeks ago, where the polls showed the triumph of the left and the right was won and definitely. So it can be said that something is mostly broken erstwhile it comes to measurements and their precision in the world. But let's leave Greenland, Romania or the United States and focus on what's in here. Of course you gotta look at the polls a small bit with a wink, especially those single measurements. It is better to group them in interval e.g. 2 weeks or a period and compare whether individual has grown by more than 2-3 pp. due to the fact that all these changes that we see very often, they turn up the media.
Your eye may indeed be a passerine before the first circular of elections, and the first will most likely be Rafał Trzaskowski, and the second not Nawrocki, but Mentzen?
Yeah, it's possible. This script was absolutely unbelievable 2 or 3 months ago. But already in January, this difference was getting smaller, and at the minute it is within the limits of statistical error. An indicator of support for Nawrocki is what the Law and Justice quotations are. At the moment, the Law and Justice Office has any 31 percent support, while Nawrocki has 24 percent support. So a simple conclusion that at least 1 in 5 voters of Law and Justice do not point to Charles Nawrocki.
Why? What happened? He's a bad candidate, a bad campaign?
This is simply a bad candidate for some. It can be said that the problem of the Law and Justice organization is that Nawrocki is besides small "written" for hard-core PiS voters who do not see him as the chosen 1 from this establishment. But the problem is besides for those PiS voters who do not belong to a tougher group of voters of this party. due to the fact that they have rather average right-wing views and for many years have pointed to the Law and Justice as the largest formation in the context of the Donald Tusk Civic Platform. It was alternatively a calculated affair, not necessarily out of love. Now those voters who have not received what they have been waiting for in fresh years have a viable alternate in the form of another candidate, as right-wing as the typical of Law and Justice. Mentzen or Confederation, erstwhile they were at 8, 10, 12 percent, were not attractive to these voters, but erstwhile they approached Nawrocki and all the media were talking about it, this part might have come to the conclusion that this could be an offer for them. By voting for Mentzen, even if he were not to enter the second round, they would not actually harm their strategy of values, their views. due to the fact that if there's a second round, they'll vote for Charles Nawrocki anyway.
The decision to choose one, not another candidate, which the Law and Justice supports due to the fact that it is officially a citizen candidate supported by the Law and Justice, was that a mistake? And if so, whose?
From this perspective, it was a mistake. It was a decision taken by Jarosław Kaczyński, who primarily took into account the interests of his party. He wanted to choose a candidate who least conflicts with many factions, which, to put it mildly, do not perish. He concluded that Nawrocki, a bit from the outside, would be the candidate who would make it difficult, so to say, to jump into each other's eyes, whether it is factions of the erstwhile Prime Minister Morawiecki, or, for example, the old PC, as is said about the group connected with Jarosław Kaczyński. It turned out that this choice did not like, as I said, at least 2 groups of voters within the Law and Justice, due to the fact that an alternate had emerged. There's quite a few nervousness in Novgorod now. Jarosław Kaczyński, his surroundings, Law and Justice is simply a formation not accustomed to this in the last 20 years, so that anyone threatens the hegemony of this organization on the right. Everything that was right from the center was sooner or later, let's call it, mined by Jarosław Kaczyński. And he shared and ruled all that is, so to speak, sympathy to the right. And now it abruptly turned out, due to the fact that it's not just a question of Mentzen's growth that the PiS polls are unchangeable around 30%, but the Confederacy is at 19-20 percent, and it takes votes not only on the 3rd Hoard Road, but in fresh times it besides starts taking the Law and Justice.
