Situated on the vast European plain, Poland frequently fell prey to its larger neighbours’ territorial ambitions throughout history. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 all but confirmed to Poland that the place on the map it had long fought for cannot be taken for granted.
Donald Tusk, who returned as Poland’s prime minister in 2023, has acted swiftly to drive the western consequence to a renewed confrontation with Russia. On a visit to Poland’s 418 kilometre-long east frontier with Belarus, Tusk outlined the steps that Poland has been taking to defend the European Union from hybrid threats coming from the East.
In 2021, the Kremlin weaponized irregular migration flows to wage a deliberate act of aggression against the Central European nation. Polish soldiers and officers are being deployed on a regular basis as a consequence to safeguard their state’s boundaries. “We are not just dealing with illegal migration, but with state-led operations involving the regimes in Minsk and Moscow,” declared the Polish prime minister.
Tusk’s visit to the border comes as any in the EU question whether Russia poses a direct threat to their security. Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish prime minister, stated late without hesitation that Russia will not. But for Poland and another east Flank EU associate states, Russia’s threat to Europe is clear and present.
What is the aim of Russia’s hybrid war on Poland? It is to undermine the support for Ukraine and thereby yet unravel the integrity of the European safety order by sowing discord and division within the EU. So far, Russia’s malign efforts are proving to be effective.
Migration is simply a delicate socio-political issue in Poland. A historical experience of abroad partitions and invasions has made Poland’s borders emotionally charged for many of its citizens. Russia has been adept at exploiting this in a cynical effort to decimate Poland’s societal and democratic cohesion.
In the Polish town of Zgorzelec close to the German border, hundreds of protestors gathered to request an end to the deportations of migrants and asylum seekers from Germany to Poland. The organizer of the protest said that the demonstration on the Polish-German border took place with presidential elections looming in Poland and support for the country’s far-right party, Konfederacja, rising considerably in fresh weeks.
Russia’s instrumentalization of migration is besides harming Poland’s efforts to rebuild ties with the EU after 8 years of disputes over the regulation of law under the Law and Justice government.
Tusk has announced that Poland would no longer comply with the EU’s Dublin Regulation on the return of asylum seekers. At the European Council summit in Brussels last month, the Polish prime minister stated categorically that “we will not accept migrants from another countries.” The Commission issued a fast rebuke to Tusk’s message with a reminder that “all associate states are required to full comply with current asylum rules.”
The renewed rift between Poland and the EU over migration benefits no 1 but Russia and its geostrategic interests. It serves as an unwelcome distraction from the request to keep a united front at a minute of profound crisis for post-war Europe. European countries – including non-EU members specified as the UK – have been scrambling to fill the safety void left in the wake of the United States’ fresh rhetoric under Donald Trump.
These cracks within the western alliance will only embolden the Kremlin to intensify its hybrid aggression – peculiarly as the US retreats from Europe and support for the far right continues to grow across the EU. In this fresh safety situation, joint EU action is needed more than always to bolster stableness on the European continent.
Poland is already taking steps to fulfil its obligations as a country on the EU’s front line. To date, the Polish government has allocated 2.7 billion zloty (650 million euros) to border protection with the goal of creating a full sealed border system. Poland has besides positioned itself at the forefront of European resilience to Russian hybrid warfare as it continues to make investments in infrastructure and modern technology.
The EU has set out how it will ramp up its defence capabilities under the fresh Readiness 2030 white paper. The Commission’s proposal includes ways in which associate states can make crucial investments in defence, procure defence systems, and build up the European defence manufacture in the long term.
While these measures are essential, it is crucial that the EU takes action to deter Russia in the hybrid, as well as the conventional military, domain. Tusk’s proactive function in securing the EU’s east borders offers a strong starting point for comprehensive cooperation with Poland on Russian aggression.
Hugo Blewett-Mundy is an Associate investigation Fellow at the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy in Prague, specialising in Russia, east Europe, and abroad policy. He besides writes regularly about current European affairs. He holds a MA in Russian and Post-Soviet Politics at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies.
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