Why the United States of Venezuelan oil. Facts and myths

06.01.2026 htysol/po-co-state-unified-Venezuelska-ropa-facts-and-mites

American intervention in Venezuela was not a moral manifesto, but a cold calculation of interests. Oil, fuel prices, weakening Russia and hitting OPEC+ are the real stakes of this game, which in the long word can change the global energy marketplace and the global power system.

Petroleum installation in Venezuela / Chevrolet.com

Much of the first part after the capture of Nicolas Maduro's press conference Donald Trump sacrificed oil, the 1 in Venezuela. Which is an argument for those who claim that the U.S. wants to change the government to Caracas primarily due to the fact that they want to put their hands on the world's largest reserves of "black gold". Not so fast – 1 might say. Completing the change of power in Venezuela will not bring immediate revolution to the planet oil market. This does not mean that in the long word it will not harm Russia and China, but will strengthen the United States.

Venezuela has the largest oil deposits in the planet – why it does not usage them

Amendment of the authoritarian government Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and the control of the United States over the political processes in this country will open full access to US companies with the world's largest oil reserves. I compose full, due to the fact that even so far, despite American sanctions, Chevron was extracting 1 5th of Venezuelan oil.

Neither Trumpneither Rubio They do not deny the interest in Venezuelan oil – this country has the world's largest resources of this natural material. The president of the United States recalled that it was the American companies that built the oil manufacture of the country, which was "stealed" by the socialist regime. By stealing Trump understands the nationalization of assets of American oil companies in governments Hugo Chavez. due to the fact that the times of free exploitation of Venezuelan oil by US companies ended much earlier: in 1976. Then the state monopoly was created PDVSA and introduced the rule that abroad companies can operate on the home market, but only in joint ventures in which Venezuelan company has at least 60% of shares. Even before that, government requiring abroad investors to pay advanced taxes to the Venezuelan Treasury was introduced.

Without billion investments, Venezuelan oil will not return to the market

The United States is now planning to rebuild the heavy neglected Venezuelan infrastructure, which is 1 of the effects of Chavez's PDVSA PDVSA purge from 2002 to 2003. The government responded to the strike of the group's employees by firing most management staff and specialists and replacing them by loyalists – mediocre professionals. Then problems began in the sector, deepened by the collapse of oil prices in the planet and yet by US sanctions. Rubio felt that the interest of the largest American energy companies would be enormous. Is it? Let's take a look at the current condition of the Venezuelan oil manufacture – for starters.

Venezuela has a documented oil stock of 303 billion barrels. That's 20% of the world's reserves. But it produces little than 1% of planet production! With the abolition of sanctions, it would be possible to rise the extraction from 850 1000 to about 1 million barrels per day in a fewer months. But returning to pre-crisis levels, which is 2 million bpd, is simply a cost of as much as $100 billion and a period of many years. And it would inactive be half the current mining in Texas alone. Until there is simply a unchangeable political situation in Venezuela, American companies will not rush to invest. Even in upgrading pipelines, which has not been done in... 50 years. Even more so, Conoco and Exxon They want billions of dollars in damages for the nationalization of their Venezuelan assets by the chavists over 2 decades ago. Today, the U.S. base in the Venezuelan oil sector remains Chevron. It works despite U.S. sanctions due to the fact that it gets renewed approval all erstwhile in a while. Currently, all 5th barrel of oil in Venezuela is being mined by Americans.

Why the United States request dense Oil from Venezuela

The situation is complicated by the fact that oil in Venezuela is the most saturated species. Extracting dense oil is much harder and more expensive. Light oil produces gasoline. Of heavy, mainly diesel and products specified as asphalt. There is presently a diesel deficit in the planet market, among others due to Venezuela's problems. The second tycoon uses this to extract dense oil, Russia. The release of larger quantities of Venezuelan natural material will so be a double problem for Moscow: it will mostly reduce the price of natural material in the world, and it will weaken Russia's position in the area of dense oil sales.

For Americans, the precedence is not to release as much oil as possible into the global marketplace (which takes time and billions of investment), but to redirect Venezuelan natural material to the refinery over the Gulf. They were built in Texas and Louisiana at a time erstwhile dense oil (also from Venezuela) dominated the American market. Then came the slate boom – but that means light oil. This is simply a technology problem for the refineries. If we could redirect a stream of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. (already 90% went to China), The Americans would gain in respective ways. First, inexpensive (also due to the proximity of the source) oil. Second, dense oil, perfect for these refineries. Thirdly, the problem of diesel in its own market. Fourthly, through the acquisition of dense Venezuelan oil, the release for exports of more light American oil.

Oil companies' interests do not always match US policy

It is besides worth remembering 2 more factors that make the abrupt race of American oilers to Venezuela questionable. First of all, it's inactive increasing at a fast rate of extraction in neighboring Guyana. On its immense oil deposits the actual exclusivity has a consortium dominated by American Exxon and Chevron (plus a smaller shareholder from China: CNOOC). To this, reports are coming from neighbouring Suriname that this year will be the beginning of the oil boom besides in this country. Secondly, US companies do not care about a large drop in oil prices as much as Trump, who knows that the cheaper the fuel in Iowa or Georgia, the better the election chances. Cheaper oil and spending in Venezuela – how would that affect Chevron, Exxon or Conoco? Republicans must remember thousands of private employees of oil companies, their natural electorate.

The greater function of Venezuela can weaken Russia and OPEC+

What about Russia in the context of a possible takeover of Venezuelan oil by the US? 1 of the first to respond to Maduro's kidnapping was oligarch Oleg Deripaska, who, on his Telegram channel, wrote that American taking control of Venezuelan deposits would hit the Russian budget due to the fact that now Americans will control more than half of the world's oil resources and their goal is to prevent Russian oil from costing more than $50 a barrel. Yes, the price may fall further, but only if it can rapidly unlock Venezuela's oil wealth.

For now, it is besides early to say that the planet energy marketplace will change radically in the coming months. However, in the long term, the Venezuelan movement, as Rubio put it, "in a certain direction" means a extremist change in the strategy of forces. Venezuela is not only a country with the top oil reserves, but besides 1 of the founding countries OPEC. Oil cartel – both in its first form and in its extended composition OPEC+ – With the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil and export infrastructure, it will lose quite a few importance.

Why a fall in oil prices would be peculiarly painful for Russia

The arabian countries surviving from oil have only 1 way to avoid this: flood the planet with inexpensive natural materials, making multibillion investments in Venezuela unprofitable for American oil giants. However, for many OPEC+ members this kind of trade war can prove to be highly painful. And even deadly to Russia. Therefore, it is worth watching closely the relation between Moscow and Riyadh – they are the 2 main players in OPEC+. What is acceptable to Saudi Arabia to periodically tighten the belt may be a financial death conviction for Russia. At the gathering the day after Maduro was taken over, the OPEC+ representatives did not change the level of mining.

We will see what happens next period – then it should be clear where the accidents in a country with the most "black gold" took place.