- “ Karol Nawrocki is not associated with anything that has been a sign of the Law and Justice in fresh years,” says a political scientist
- “The Left has been competing for voters with the Civic Platform for years. This is the main origin of Mrs. Biejat’s problem, says an analyst
- “The 3rd Road was a large region road, leading in short time to success at the level of the upcoming elections. But it did not turn out to be a highway, says prof. Chwedoruk
- More crucial information can be found on the Onetu homepage
Nearly 3 quarters of Poles know who they will vote for in the presidential election on 18 May. all 4th voter assumes he can change his head — According to the UCE investigation poll for Onetu.
25 percent of voters inactive do not know who they will yet vote for. Can specified a consequence 3 months before the election be considered surprising?
"Natural Demobilisation Process"
—It's theoretically rather a lot. On the another hand, we should not be amazed by this, due to the fact that the election turnout in all fresh elections, and in peculiar those of October 15, was at highly advanced levels. In the long run, however, this level of mobilisation is impossible to keep in any society. All the more so that in fact there is more happening around Poland than in Poland itself. So there is simply a natural process of demobilization — he comments for Onetu Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk.
The survey shows that more than 35 percent of PiS sympathizers are inactive considering changing the decision on whom to vote. This may mean that even in the eyes of the voters of Jarosław Kaczyński's party, Karol Nawrocki appears to be not a very attractive candidate.
— This is hard to describe as a disaster, says a political scientist.
— Law and Justice was a formation that for years of hard work shaped a very loyal electorate. He was willing to accept even avant-garde actions of the party, evasive intuitions and expectations of voters. Like Matthew Morawiecki, who was a immense surprise, notes.
The PiS problem. ‘Election of candidate missed’
According to prof. Chwedoruk, it is different with Karol Nawrocki. As he says, the results of this poll may show that "the election of specified a candidate was unsuccessful".
— This is surely affected by the low designation of the candidate. In addition, Karol Nawrocki does not associate with anything that has been a sign of the Law and Justice in fresh years. And historical policy is simply a global phenomenon. Debates are going on everywhere, but in everyday life and in election decisions, it is hard to anticipate that motivation is dominant,” Onetu emphasizes.
— There is also, of course, controversy with this historical policy and with Karol Nawrock himself. This, of course, gives emergence to a immense hazard for this organization before the first circular of elections, especially as the right-wing views declare rather a large number of candidates,” he says.
Confederacy uncertain to the last hours prior to election silence
The analyst besides devotes a fewer sentences to the Confederate and the Left. The survey shows that 29.4% of Confederate voters inactive let for a change of opinion on the candidate they will delete at the urns. For the Left, this rate is even higher and is over 32 percent.
Tomasz Waszczuk / PAPSławomir Mentzen
— The Confederate electorate, despite its evolution, is dominated by the youngest, who are mostly not powerfully politically sedated. These are people who can easy change their mind. The Confederacy not only as a formation, but besides as regards the structure of the electorate, was always eclectic. Both libertarians and nationalists were there. This is simply a formation that will have a very strong impact on the situation in the last days before the elections, and possibly even in the last hours before the election silence,” says prof. Chwedoruk.
Commenting on the result of the Left, he says: “The Left has been competing for years about voters with the Civic Platform. This is the main origin of Mrs. Biejat's problem. There is besides Adrian Zandberg, who may not be on any large scale, but may besides sow any grain of doubt.
The Holf's problems. The region road is not a highway.
The most decisive seems to be the KO electorate. Only 16.2% of the group's supporters are allowed to change their minds. In turn, the most shaky group is the 3rd Way electorate: up to 41.8 percent of respondents number with the change.
“The 3rd Road was a large region road, leading in short time to success at the level of the upcoming elections. On the another hand, it did not turn out to be a motorway, which is driven in the longer term, overcoming larger spaces, differences of interests between different groups of voters, different profiles and programs of the main parties, the separation between tactics calculated to attract voters of the Platform and the strategy calculated to scope the voters of the right, as prof. Chwedoruk illustrates.
— Simon Holovnia for these tens, or even hundreds of thousands of Platform voters who voted for the 3rd Road in the last election, now appears to be a highly conservative politician. For conventional PSL voters who are inactive with the people, it is individual very far from the lifestyle of provincial Poland,” he adds.
Marcin Obara / PAPSimon Holovnia
The analyst believes that "for many young, pop cultured voters, Simon Hołownia and Rafał Trzaskowski, Magdalena Biejat, Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Stanowski may besides be attractive mention points".
— Nor can you be the talker of the Sejm of the governing coalition and at the same time introduce himself as individual who is simply a small out of the mainstream political divide,” says prof. Chwedoruk.
