Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic: Babiš' triumph

In the elections to the Parliamentary Chamber of the Czech Republic held on 3–4 October, the best consequence was the opposition formation ANO oligarchy Andrej Babiša, which obtained 34.5% of the vote and will have 80 seats in the 200-man lower parliament. Under the highest attendance since 1998 – little than 69% (+3.5 pp. vs. 2021) – the organization noted 7.4 pp. higher support than 4 years ago and increased the holding state by 8 mandates. She won in all regions outside the capital, as well as in all cities over 30,000 inhabitants but the 2 largest – Prague and Brno. The core of the ruling coalition, the centre-right Alliance of the Pool of Prime Minister Petra Fiala, received 23.4% of support (4.4 pp.) and will have 52 mandates (lost 19). The chief of government admitted that he had failed, and stated that his camp had to prepare for “intense work in the opposition”.

Already in the evening after the results were announced, the first talks on government cooperation between ANO and representatives of utmost right-wing Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), which will have 15 MPs, as well as the Eurosceptic Driver organization for Himself (Motoristé sobě; 13 seats). president Petr Pavel discussed with the heads of the groups to be in the Chamber of Members, and reported that her first gathering in the fresh composition should be convened in early November. At a gathering with the head of the State, Babiš was to present a set of proposals to regulate his conflict of interest as a politician and head of Agrofert, acting in contact with the State (trades, grants).

The most likely post-election script assumes a government with a key function of ANO and involving Drivers. Most will be provided by SPD MPs in exchange for concessions.

Comment

• The large winners are Babiš and his ANO, which effectively mobilized its possible voters. It achieved in absolute terms the best score in the past of these elections, and in terms of number of seats and percent of support – second after the 2006 ODS result. The highest turnout increases compared to erstwhile elections (5–7pp) were recorded in districts in the Ostrava region and in the western and north-western parts of the country – the conventional bastions of the left, but in the last decade favoring the ANO. At the final phase of the campaign, Babiš managed to convince the hesitant SPD elections and the Stačilo coalition focused on communists! (Enough already!). This has been contributed by the 2 fresh tv debates, in which he has only clashed with Prime Minister Fiala, which suggested that another election conflict actors are not of much importance. It was besides utilized by the Spolu coalition, for which support besides increased in relation to the last polls – from expected around 20% to over 23%.
• Although any support was regained at the conclusion of the Spolu campaign, it would lose power and likely fall apart after the election. The Minister of Finance Zbyněk Stanjura – the face of unpopular fiscal consolidation efforts – was symbolically outside the parliament. ODS leader from 2014 Fiala will most likely end the party's leadership in January 2026 during its accelerated congress. The current Minister of Transport Martin Kupka is simply a favourite to take the lead. ODS will have the largest opposition club. Fiala is considered a mistake to let drivers to grow in power, who, at the slogans of even opposition to the Green Deal, took over part of the erstwhile ODS electorate (and their leaders are close to the founder of this organization Václav Klaus). At the same time, the clear criticism of the driver's environment now prevented any possible agreement with him, which could have been given by the parliamentary majority. A large loser is the camp of the conventional left – the Stačilo coalition! She won 4.3% of the vote, which means that the communists and social democrats who competed from her letter will not return to the Chamber of Members, from which they fell out in 2021. She was not helped by the support of erstwhile president Miloš Zeman, who during the run changed election preferences from ANO to just Stačilo!.
• The preferred script for ANO is simply a number government led by Babiš, the majority of which would be provided by SPD and Drivers with key votes. Although it would most likely be acceptable to president Pavl, possible ANO allies object to this plan. From the driver's environment, which, together with this party, belong to the European Patriot household for Europe, has already come out a declaration of willingness to cooperate only in a formal coalition. At the same time, they explicitly rejected cooperation with the Pirates and the State (called “new communists”). In turn, the SPD initially talked about the desire to send “experts” to the government, suggesting that it would be ready to cooperate without formal entry into the government in exchange for positions in the Chamber of Members and state-owned companies. Just after the results were announced, the head of the group Tomio Okamura mentioned his willingness to join the "government constellation", but then changed negotiating tactics and asked for, for example, an impact on the cast of the Home Office. The ANO, SPD and Drivers Alliance script would mean greater passiveness of Prague with respect to Ukraine's support, but besides a sharper opposition in Brussels on climate and migration policy issues (see IP/10/05). Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic: Babiš close to returning to power).