One of the parties could fall after the election? The expert points. “Bal on Titanic”

Over 6 million Poles watched the debate in Koński. These are the results that can be compared to the biggest sporting events. It is besides more people than voted for Trzaskowski in the first circular 5 years ago. If any part of the electorate found that any candidate, however, did not respond to them, it immediately translates into a polling result.

A survey of the media houses on audiences shows that the debate was primarily watched by older people. If individual wanted to fight for the voice of older Poles and Poles, here he could win or lose. Or quit without a fight. That's why Mentzen's mistake was not coming.

Rafał Trzaskowski and Magdalena Biejat avoid debates on right-wing television. Do you think this is simply a mistake? Finally, fragments of each of them go online, are cited by another media, and gain considerable coverage.

In the case of Rafał Trzaskowski, I do not know whether he was more disturbed by coming or not. On the 1 on which he was, he looked comparable to how Donald Tusk fell out in the debate before the parliamentary election, which he lost spectacularly. This did not hinder the Coalition on October 15 to win. At that time, Tuska could have gained the Left and 3rd Way in her weak form.

Piotr Kamionka/Reporter / East News

Prof. Przemysław Sadura

I realize the decision of an KO candidate not to attend debates in the Republic. It is understandable to reject it from the position of clear polling. It's not average television, it's a psychic dealing with misinformation. It is clearly prejudiced and does not hesitate to scope for propaganda tools and call for force against circumstantial groups. Boycotting this kind of media is understandable.

If I were a candidate, I'd think about it. Rafał Trzaskowski had no hope of convincing viewers of the Republic. The left hand should fight here if it wants to focus on an economical programme that will be aimed at people who are not privileged. Magdalena Biejat could gain an electorate, which is pro-developmental, geared towards distribution, and not necessarily should be traditionalist like PiS. These people, for deficiency of a more serious offer, could vote for the Kaczyński Party. If they had an alternative, who knows? She left it to Zandberg.

Wojciech Olkusnik/East News / East News

Magdalena Biejat in Koński

Expert on the Confederate result. “Most Poles were relieved”

In March, the polls showed a chance to enter the second circular for Sławomir Mentzen. However, he was not in Koński, he avoids interviews, his opponents regularly match the celebrated “five Mentzen” and the ratings fall. Does the candidate of the Confederate inactive have a chance to get the alleged minima with Karol Nawrocki by second place?

Sławomir Mentzen decided spectacularly in front of everyone, with Krzysztof Stanowski in love with him, to execute harakiri. A cross for his journey. I won't cry for Mentzen. Most clearly reasoning Poles and Poles were relieved erstwhile they saw the Confederacy convention in the polls. It's hard to anticipate Mentzen to empathize due to the fact that he has a deficiency of emotional intelligence. From his "five" he has already tried to consciously retreat and avoid these topics. In Channel Zero, however, he went on to talk about paid studies and penalties for abortion in case of rape..

Darek Delmanowicz / PAP

Sławomir Mentzen

Melting in Mentzen's polls caused rape to be termed “unpleasant”. It's absolutely disqualifying. He had nothing to look for among women anyway. The decline is that young women's partners have wondered whether they truly want to vote for specified a candidate. In turn, Krzysztof Bosak's statements clearly indicate what his organization has learned from this.

The Deputy Marshal said it was unwise to take up the subject. He did not distance himself from the content and did not condemn that contemptible term. The Confederacy is like a student caught cheating, who is ashamed of being caught, not of cheating.

Simon Holovnia tries to take the electorate from Sławomir Mentzen, regularly calling him to debate and entering media discussions with him. Is that possible?

To a large extent, yes, due to the fact that in the debates Simon Holovnia is privileged. His clash with Sławomir Mentzen works on the principle: “the grandpa talked to the painting.” This is the dialog of a fit showman with a part of wood or Pinocchio before his sculpting. All those jokes from Mentzen that he's being helped by a host of humanoid robots made for his image are not that much of an exaggeration. Like a catarine repeats the same formula, as if the tape had stuck.

Tomasz Jedrzejowski/Reporter / East News

Sławomir Mentzen and Simon Holovnia

On the another hand, 1 should be aware that there are cases of hesitation among less-known voters, whether to vote for Sławomir Mentzen or for Rafał Trzaskowski. frequently erstwhile I researched the left-wing electorate, I met people who do not know whether to vote for Magdalena Biejat or a Confederate candidate. We request to be aware that specified people are voting, and thanks to specified people, this consequence will not be entirely certain.

Prof. Sadura powerfully on the Left. “The warmest voters have lost their orientation, what is happening there”

A large part of the election run takes place on social media, in which so far Sławomir Mentzen dominated. After the debates, the baton seems to be taken over by Joanna Senyszyn, who has been hailed as “the queen of memes”. Could this have a real impact on the result of the erstwhile SLD MP?

I think it's short-term growth, but it's affecting the outcome, due to the fact that it's the last line. It's a tiny difference. It is adequate that any crucial group of TikToka users decide to vote for Senyszyn. This may origin it to have 1-2 percent, which in her case means doubling the electorate. But I don't see a chance to get Senishyn back into politics. I don't think it'll be the beginning of something serious on the left, due to the fact that these strategies have short legs.

Andrzej Iwanczuk/Reporter / East News

Simon Holovnia, Joanna Senyszyn

Simon Holovnia has already run over this once, due to the fact that he has exaggerated from phase strategy as the talker of the Sejm. At a time erstwhile we halt being a meme hero and become a meme man, it does not aid in politics due to the fact that it attaches itself to the patch of a frivolous person. Now the Holovnia must recover what it has lost.

Joanna Senyszyn risked nothing due to the fact that she came back from a political non-existence and had a fewer minutes to exist. She utilized it not even in 100 or 200 percent, but in 500 percent.

Left in polls is down, in any of them it does not even exceed the electoral threshold. Their candidate can number on even little support than the party. Is there any chance that the candidatures of Adrian Zandberg and Joanna Senyszyn will sink Magdalena Biejat?

That's the least of it. These candidatures could sink the full Left. An environment that barely exceeds the electoral threshold has wrongly chosen growth strategy by cell division. Even the warmest leftist voters have lost their orientation of what is happening there. Together, it changed its strategy from supporting a government that did not form part of the transition to the opposition. Most left-wing voters only found out about this erstwhile Adrian Zandberg collected 100,000 signatures and competed against Magdalena Biejat.

Stanislaw Bielski/Reporter / East News

Adrian Zandberg

Some of the erstwhile SLDs hatred Vladimir Czarzasty adequate that they decided to spitefully collect signatures for Joanna Senyszyn, otherwise this can't be explained. The explanation that the prof. has volunteered due to the fact that there is no 1 to vote for is simply a tv procedure. The actual motive is the dintojra of erstwhile SLD comrades.

The Left has entered the planning phase. We are dealing with a complete and incomprehensible sectarianity for the electorate. The behaviour of the full formation resembles the Titanic ball. They're headed for a frontal collision with reality and they're arguing about who's gonna be sitting in the driver's seat, not looking at the road. The left-wing voter must be prepared to repeat the 2015 script, erstwhile Together it exceeded 3%, but caused the left-wing vote to be absent at all. possibly those 4 years of purgatory weren't enough, and it took more than that to get these people to come to their senses.

"It should be a bell for all office of the ruling coalition"

What could be crucial for fresh weeks of campaigns? Will the next debate scheduled for 12 May be a climax?

Surely the debate will be crucial and how the candidates will be prepared. Rafał Trzaskowski cannot afford another performance in mediocre form. Everyone has a right to have a worse day. However, erstwhile an athlete has a worse day during a competition, he just has bad luck. We'll all be unlucky here if it happens again. The situation is truly serious.

A tap in the KO candidate's results is partially his credit, but let's see how Charles Nawrocki is doing. He's done well, and you can see it with his bare eye. I was impressed by the way he spoke freely. Rafał Trzaskowski can do much more. He got caught up in simple tricks like the 1 with the rainbow flag. He was incapable to cope with it, which was perfectly utilized by Magdalena Biejat. However, specified mistakes should not occur. It's hard to talk about 1 large mistake, but the full show was just weak.

Filip Naumenko/Reporter / East News

Karol Nawrocki, Rafał Trzaskowski

We must remember that Karol Nawrocki inactive has a reserve, due to the fact that his support is inactive lower than Law and Justice. Furthermore, 1 should remember the possible movement of the voters of Sławomir Mentzen to Karol Nawrocki in the second round. For the past fewer weeks, we've lived in a reality where we knew who would win. We just didn't know who he would win with in the second circular of Trzaskowski. Now Mentzen lost his chance to catch up with Nawrocki, and the difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki began to decline again. This should be a bell for all the office of the government coalition party, and above all, for KO.

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Prof. UW. dr hab. Przemysław Sadura — Head of the Department of Political Sociology at the Faculty of Sociology of the University of Warsaw, technological curator of the Institute of Political Critics. It examines relations between the state and society in the fields of functioning of different public policies. Author of the book “State, School, Classes” and co-author (with Sławomir Sierakowski) of investigation “Politic Cynicism of Poles” and “End of Hegemony 500 plus” and of the book “Populist Society”.