The Grey region in Poland has ceased to be a marginal phenomenon, becoming a 659 billion PLN section of the economy, but that revenues from this activity, alternatively of supplying the state budget, go straight to organized criminal groups.
This problem is peculiarly visible in the tobacco marketplace – the Warsaw Enterprise Institute (WEI) points out. all 15 cigarettes burned in Poland in the last 4th of 2024 came from an illegal source. all day, the state budget loses about PLN 10 million, equivalent to the full equipment of the infirmary ward. In another words, all 24 hours money escapes, which could service society alternatively of criminals.
Every violent increase in excise work is simply a gift to organized criminal groups
WEI in the study "Grey tobacco marketplace region in Poland“ diagnoses the causes of the collapse of the legal tobacco marketplace and indicates that it is the work of the state that, in its fiscal amok, de facto pushes consumers into the grey economy.
– The state, in pursuit of gross to the budget forgets that any violent increase in excise duties is simply a gift to organised criminal groups, and all new, unthought-out regulation creates lucrative niches for them. Historical data from 2011-2014, erstwhile jumping excise increases led to a decrease in budget revenues of PLN 1 billion, and the current collapse in legal sales show that the government ignores hard evidence and repeats the same costly mistakes. failure of gross to the state budget of PLN 1,33 billion in 2024 is simply a bill for short-sighted policy – says Andrzej Strojny, WEI analyst.
Conclusions of the report:
- The grey region in Poland is estimated at 18.1 percent of Polish GDP.
- In 2024, losses for the Polish budget for the grey tobacco region amounted to PLN 1,33 billion, an increase of 57.6% compared to the erstwhile year. Forecasts for 2027 indicate a possible failure of budget revenues of around PLN 3.7 billion per year.
- The infrastructure created for the smuggling of tobacco products is presently utilized for other, more dangerous practices, specified as the distribution of counterfeit drugs and drugs.
- In the first 4th of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, there were sharp declines in sales of legal products: cigarettes by 15.7%, tobacco for twisting by 19.2%, and heated tobacco products by 18.75 percent.
- These declines do not mean mass cessation of smoking, but migration of consumers to the grey area. The main reason is the "regulatory paradox" – the more control, taxes and prohibitions, the greater the failure of state control over the marketplace for criminals.
- In order to counter the increasing grey trefe, the State should introduce a robust Evaluation of Regulatory Effects (OSR) as a prerequisite for each legislative process, and focus on conducting a Harm simplification policy by rationally regulating little harmful alternatives to cigarettes alternatively of delegalising them.
