The trade war between the United States and China has entered a fresh dramatic phase. On Friday, October 10, 2025, U.S. president Donald Trump announced an unprecedented escalation, promising to rise duties on all Chinese goods to 100%. In addition, the U.S. administration is to introduce export control on “all key software”. This is simply a direct and highly harsh consequence to Beijing's earlier decision to drastically restrict exports of uncommon earth metals.
What happened? Escalation chronology:
- Chinese Movement (Thursday): Beijing, utilizing its dominant position on the market, importantly expanded the control of exports of uncommon earth metals. These are key natural materials for the production of almost all modern technology – from smartphones and electrical vehicles to advanced weapons systems. This decision was taken by Washington as an effort “to take the global economy hostage”.
- Trump's Answer (Friday): In a series of entries on his community platform fact Social, president Trump announced retaliation actions:
- 100% duty: As of 1 November 2025 (or earlier, depending on China's further action), all goods imported from China to the US will be subject to a work rate of 100%.
- Software export control: At the same time, close export controls on “all key software” will be introduced to China.
- Revocation of the meeting: Trump besides threatened to cancel a three-week gathering with China's leader Xi Jinping in South Korea (Beijing never officially confirmed this meeting).
Meaning and possible consequences
This violent escalation is the most serious crisis in relations between the 2 world's largest economies in months. This raises fundamental questions about the future of global trade and the economy.
- Impact on consumers and companies: 100% of duties mean that the prices of almost all products imported from China to the USA – from electronics and clothing to furniture and toys – can double. This will consequence in a sharp increase in inflation and immense problems for US companies whose supply chains are heavy dependent on Chinese factories.
- Impact on the Chinese economy: For China, whose economy is inactive struggling with interior problems, the failure of access to the world's largest consumer marketplace will not be as strong a blow as it would have been a fewer years ago. The Chinese have systematically reduced their dependence on the American marketplace since Trump declared the trade war.
- Global uncertainty: A abrupt break in the economical ties between the “world factory” and its “largest consumer” would trigger a shock wave throughout the global economy, leading to financial marketplace chaos and supply chain disruption worldwide.
Analysts stress that while president Trump's rhetoric is highly sharp, it leaves any area for negotiation, making the final implementation of the duties dependent on “further action or change taken by China”. The coming weeks will be crucial and will show whether both sides decide to deescalate, or the planet will be on the verge of a full-scale trade war with unpredictable consequences.
Perhaps the Chinese side decided to exploit Trump's weakness, or large ego. possibly (as mentioned behind the scenes) Trump “wins” a trade war (prison) in return for which he will abandon Taiwan. And if it doesn't, the trade war will go to the next level. However, the problem is that if Beijing made an offensive decision first, he did so after careful analysis of the consequences. This analysis showed that specified a decision would bring injury which would not origin serious economical consequences. For China.
Sources used:
- Reuters / Nikkei Asia: “Trump hits China with 100% rhetorical tariffs in trade war evacuation";
- The Wall Street Journal: Analysis and editorial comments on the impact of announced duties on the American and global economy, including inflation and supply chains.
- Bloomberg;
- Global Times / Xinhua;
Leszek B. Glass
Email: [email protected]
© www.chiny24.com
