Unsymmetrical borderless partnership

There are frequently declarations that "China is Russia's strategical ally". Both powers officially avoid specified strong accents, announcing “partnership without borders”. So let's look at their relationship.

Cooperation between China and Russia is simply a key obstacle in the western war against Russian energy resources (especially oil), through which America and Europe want to destabilise the economy, ruin the budget and lead to a revolt of Russian elites that would overthrow Vladimir Putin.

This cooperation began to deepen after Western restrictions against Russia, but it was not certain that it would go that way. China's strategy did not indicate that it would support Russia in this conflict. They cooled down economical relations with Iran, Venezuela or North Korea as the West destroyed sanctions. Officially disagreeing and criticizing, however, trade was shrinking. In the case of Russia it was akin in 2014 – then trade between China and Russia besides shrinked, and this importantly – from $42 billion to $33 billion.

But then there was a crucial return. Shortly after the coup in Ukraine, Russia and China signed a gas contract of the century worth $400 billion. In order to accomplish this, it took many years of work and common concessions to clean up the fortunes. This work was done earlier and today's president of China, Xi Jinping, 13 years ago he could make his first abroad visit to Russia. Since then, it has been there eleven times, erstwhile in Kazakhstan – six, in France and the USA – five. president Putin met personally over 60 times, and they besides spent hundreds of hours on telephone calls. They're officially called friends.

As a result, just before the Ukrainian War, both powers declared "partnership without borders", and in 2023, the most hard period for Moscow, it was China that saved the Russian oil sector erstwhile they imported 106 million tonnes. Of course, not for free – they made immense profits, Russian oil was then sold 20 – 30% cheaper than on the market. As calculated by Igor Sieczin, the head of Rosniefti, they have gained $20 billion since the beginning of sanctions in 2022. The Russians avoided the collapse of the key industry, unemployment and social discontent and, most importantly, the failure of a key origin of income.

They besides saved the economy erstwhile they took the first place among Russia's abandoned commercial contractors. Escape from Western corporations (Global capital boycotts Russia Russian think Poland /) opened wide marketplace to Chinese producers. They took advantage of it eagerly. Chinese exports rapidly increased (+33%), for example cars 6 times. This makes the dynamics of trade look awesome – in 2018 the turnover amounted to 108 billion, erstwhile last time it reached 245 billion dollars. For comparison, Poland's trade with its largest partner, Germany, is $176 billion.

However, it was a one-off shot, last time the increase was minimal, only 3%, this year the exchange shrinks. The Chinese are highly cautious, and they are allowed to do so by the disparity of potentials. It is powerful and detrimental to Russia. Population is 1 to ten, economically small better – almost a 9-fold advantage of the Chinese economy, which besides has incomparably greater growth dynamics. Russia is besides not China's most crucial trading partner, it sits far behind the US, Japan and Korea. China is much more crucial to Russia than Russia to China. economical cooperation is highly unsymmetrical – Russian natural materials for Chinese technologies and finished products. Energy is 40% of turnover and 70% of Russian exports to China. In Moscow, they realize this and effort not to step as profoundly into the model of dependency as they fell into in the 1990s.

The caution of the Chinese is the consequence of a much more gentle strategy towards the West. If a Russian bear alternatively hits between the eyes, the Chinese panda will choke in a friendly hug. Beijing does not want to escalate its confrontation with Washington or Brussels, due to the fact that all year it improves its situation towards the West. Hence, China's long-term conflict in Ukraine is simply a good thing. It binds the West, strains its resources, and for almost 4 years it has failed to focus on the biggest competitor. It is besides a hidden spring of this ever-long war.

Andrzej Szczęsniak

Think Poland, No. 49-50 (7-14.12.2025)