On the night of 30 to 31 March, a real vacation was held in Finland. Around midnight, the Turkish parliament finished counting the votes and announced that Members had given the green light to Finland's accession to the Alliance. There was truly nothing to number on – after the “start” of Erdogan, the support proved unanimous.
This large success is beyond doubt.
Thus nearly a year of negotiations ended, during which the Finns encountered unexpectedly hard obstacles, but besides unexpectedly strong support from future allies.
This date was besides crucial for Sweden, which remained on the NATO threshold due to the blockade on the part of the same Turkey and Hungary.
And monitoring this process is crucial for Ukraine. In particular, due to the fact that Hungary will surely encounter Hungary on the way to their Alliance membership.
Against the Kremlin's will
NATO's current enlargement has been closely watched not only by experts, but besides by average Europeans, including us Poles. due to the fact that this phase of joining the Alliance of fresh members is special. First of all, due to Russia's expected response.
In the last 3 waves of NATO expansion, it was joined by the Western Balkan countries, whose entry was a sad but tiny event for Moscow. The accession to NATO of North Macedonia in 2020, Montenegro in 2017, Croatia and Albania in 2009 changed small in a military and geopolitical sense. Although even then, the Kremlin tried to defy it. The Russian Federation even prepared a coup in Montenegro to overthrow the pro-Western government and halt this country from joining the Alliance – but the rebellion was stopped in time by arresting those who planned it.
So what can we say about the current enlargement during which Sweden and Finland applied to NATO! In practice, their entry means that the dimension of the land border of the Russian Federation and NATO states is expanding rapidly, immediately more than 1200 km . The Baltic Sea is turning into a kind of ‘Nathan lake’, and the military value of the Baltic ports of the Russian Federation is falling significantly
A tense reaction was expected from the Russian Federation.
But Moscow, exhausted from the war with Ukraine, could only respond with hysteria.
She proved incapable of any action, sanctions, or even attempts to block the entry of fresh members into NATO. And that's precisely what was calculated.
Instead, there was quite a few outrage from the Russians. All those who were expected to do so - both the degenerate / alcoholic Dmitri Medvedev and the well-known spokesperson for the Ministry of abroad Affairs.
And after the ratification of the Finnish application, the Russian Federation ambassador to Sweden, Viktor Tatarincev (the same 1 that was remembered last year for diplomatic statement) entered the stage “ We don’t give a crap about your sanctions ”) .
He now wrote an article on the embassy's website threatening a military action against fresh NATO members. "After the accession of Finland and Sweden, the full dimension of borders between Russia and NATO will almost double. You can be certain that fresh members of the enemy bloc will become a legitimate mark of Russian retaliatory action, including military action"
Incidentally, the issue of the land borders of the Russian Federation and NATO deserves peculiar attention. After all, all erstwhile stages of its growth went smoothly.
In fact, the land border between the Alliance and Russia (then part of the USSR) has existed since the creation of this defensive block, meaning since 1949. We are talking about the Russian-Norwegian border, whose length, we must admit, is small.
This boundary was enlarged in 1999 – during the first NATO expansion after the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the USSR. Then a borderer joined the Alliance with Kaliningrad Oblast Poland – but there was no opposition and hysteria from Moscow at the time.
In 2004, the Alliance approached the Russian Federation: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and a number of another Central European countries simultaneously joined the safety block. Already behind Putin Moscow was more outraged – but it was besides limited to statements, and then they were rather calm. Instead, Russia began to make myths that the Alliance, as they say, promised Gorbachev not to grow to the East (although Gorbachev himself denied it).
It seems that in fact the Kremlin was most terrified of Ukraine's intentions to join NATO. As you know, the Kremlin has successfully prevented it.
However, the Alliance was seriously afraid that the entry of Finland would not be a stimulus for Putin.
Thursday night and night, as well as Friday about the Alliance, wrote all the key media in Finland. This is not surprising: the decision of the Turkish Parliament has indeed become a historical event for this Scandinavian country.
There are themes even for those humorists. How else can 1 respond to the tweet of the Minister of Defence of Finland, who boasted about how he celebrated the historical decision - and it turned out that it was a solemn cup of coffee? ( )
However, putting the jokes aside, it should be stressed that Finland's accession to NATO has yet ended.
It besides dispels suspicions that Erdogan has made a fuss on Putin's behalf.
No, it was purely Turkish past and Turkish reasoning.
Turkey so yet agreed to join NATO its direct neighbour Russia, with which it has a 1,200-kilometre limit, leaving only Sweden to block its entry. And most likely only temporarily.
But let's go back to Finland. erstwhile does her accession to NATO officially end?
The exact date is presently unknown. And although the Secretary-General of the Jens Stoltenberg Alliance declares that it is “a substance of days”, Until then, the Natian ‘nuclear parasol’, i.e. guarantees of a common defence involving atomic powers, including the US, will not cover the territory of Finland.
But both Finland and Sweden have an alternative.
Since the spring of 2022, both countries have received temporary unilateral safety guarantees from the armed atomic weapons of the United Kingdom - precisely to guarantee that there is no danger of Russian attack during the period during which the bureaucratic and political procedure of joining NATO is ongoing.
Incidentally, this option may equally well work for Ukraine erstwhile this country besides receives an invitation to the Alliance.
Hungarian blackmail and Swedish problems
This is not the only lesson Ukraine and others should learn from the current enlargement.
It is very interesting to see what Hungary has done.
Let us remind that until late NATO's enlargement had been blocked by 2 states – Turkey and Hungary.
The Turks requested the Swedish and Finnish governments to change their attitude towards opposition refugees from Turkey, whom Ankara considers terrorists, and to release to the Turkish authorities those whom Helsinki and Stockholm have already granted political asylum.
Hungarians initially refused, but then started saying that the Swedish and Finnish governments should halt criticizing the problems of democracy in Hungary.
And if at least the Turkish demands in Finland were sought (but not all and not all), Hungary was simply ignored. But nevertheless, Orbán's last-minute organization simply dropped all charges and unlocked Finland's entry into NATO. Without any conditions or requirements. Moreover, it was in a hurry not to stay the last country to hold the Alliance's expansion.
Following the abolition of the blockade from Finland, Budapest continued to harshly and uncompromisingly criticize Sweden. But Swedish experts openly say they have no doubt: Orbán will besides retreat any claims erstwhile the Swedish government reaches agreement with Turkey.
Because Orbán won't dare talk against NATO itself in matters of large importance.
Budapest is not ready for a simultaneous diplomatic war on the part of the US, Germany, Britain, etc. and uses veto only if the substance is not so important.
This gives emergence to cautious hopes of reaching a compromise on Ukraine's accession to NATO if they are supported by key members of the Alliance.
And finally, about Sweden.
It can now be said with certainty that its accession to NATO before the Vilnius summit, which will take place in mid-July, is impossible. This is besides recognised by representatives of the Swedish government. However, further developments will mostly depend on the results of the May elections in Turkey.
In the event of Erdoğan's defeat, the Swedes will be easier due to the fact that the current Turkish opposition, which erstwhile in power will search the support of the world, will gladly remove this problem. Scandinavian publications have already cited the statements of Turkish opposition leaders with hints and direct promises on this subject.
However, Erdoğan's triumph does not mean that Sweden is stuck on the Alliance's doorstep long. Both Stockholm and Brussels anticipate that after the Turkish elections it will be time for agreements and compromises on the extension of NATO and the simplification of Russian influence. After all, not only the Swedish government needs it.
