Myanmar’s Kachin State Is At The Center Of The Sino-US Scramble For Rare Earths

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The US seeks influence over this region that supplies much of neighboring China’s rare earth industry…

Western media has published a spree of articles raising awareness of the important role that Myanmar’s Kachin State plays in the global rare earth minerals industry.

The latest phase of that country’s long-running civil war, which is more complex than most Western and non-Western accounts alike make it seem as explained here in February 2024, has seen regional separatists take control of sites that produce roughly half of the world’s heavy rare earths.

Here are five of those aforementioned reports about this:

* 28 March: “Insight: Myanmar rebels disrupt China rare earth trade, sparking regional scramble”

* 23 June: “How war-torn Myanmar plays a critical role in China’s rare earth dominance”

* 8 July: “Exclusive: Why China’s ultimatum to Myanmar rebels threatens global supply of heavy rare earths”

* 11 July: “What to Know About the Rush for Rare Earth Metals in War-Torn Myanmar”

* 18 July: “A Rebel Army Is Building a Rare-Earth Empire on China’s Border”

To summarize, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is trying to expand control over its eponymous state, which threatens the ruling military authorities with whom they’ve been at war for decades. China has reportedly demanded that they halt their offensive otherwise it’ll curtail imports of their rare earths. This could in turn destabilize global supply chains if the KIA doesn’t comply and China carries through on its ultimatum since China has a near-monopoly on processing these resources.

It’s within this context that the US just lifted sanctions on some of the ruling junta’s allies. By alleviating some of the pressure that it placed upon them since they reassumed power over the country in early 2021 following disputed parliamentary elections several months prior, which sparked the latest round of what’s by far the world’s longest-running civil war, the US seems to be signaling interest in a deal. All pressure could possibly be removed if Myanmar (con)federalizes and gives the US influence over Kachin.

Myanmar might be tempted to consider this seeing as how the armed forces have been on the backfoot for nearly the past two years. It’s also so concerned about becoming disproportionately dependent on China that it comprehensively expanded ties with Russia as a means of hedging against that scenario. An American-brokered political-resource deal might therefore keep the generals in power and lead to Myanmar diversifying its Chinese balancing act by having the US complement Russia’s role in this regard.

The Sino-US scramble for rare earths, which Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova assessed to be part of the AI-driven ‘tech race’, is a top US foreign policy priority. It’s accordingly more important for the US to obtain control over these resources or at least influence over China’s suppliers, such as what it’s seeking to do through the peace deal that it recently brokered between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda as explained here, than to “spread democracy” in Myanmar.

This grand strategic imperative accounts for the US’ unexpected lifting of sanctions on some of the ruling junta’s allies, which comes amidst Western media’s spree of articles raising wider awareness of the important role that Myanmar’s Kachin State plays in the global rare earth minerals industry. Those reports help precondition the Western public to understand why the US might soon sacrifice the prior administration’s “democracy” goals in Myanmar by cutting a political-resource deal with the generals.