Moldova is again at a political crossroads, and the parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 September 2025 appear to be 1 of the most crucial in its post-Soviet history. These elections are not just a rivalry between individual political forces, but a key test for the organization integrity and geopolitical orientation of the country. It depends on the result of the vote whether Moldova will keep its pro-European trajectory, initiated by a landmark election triumph of the Action and Solidarity organization (PAS) in 2021, or turn again towards the Russian sphere of influence. The election scenery reveals a fundamental political dispute: the current PAS government is campaigning on the promise of European integration as a warrant of safety and sovereignty, which is simply a communicative further reinforced by the ongoing war in neighbouring Ukraine. On the another hand, the divided but strategically diversified opposition seeks to exploit the widespread social dissatisfaction resulting primarily from economical difficulties, advanced inflation and the deficiency of visible advancement in the announced reforms.
Four major camps dominate the political scene. The governing PAS, led by president Maia Sandu and Prime Minister Dorin Recean, presents a pro-EU anti-corruption program, but is burdened with the disappointing balance of the first word of office in power. The pro-Russian opposition, erstwhile a monolithic bloc, has been fragmented: in addition to the "swingerenist" alliance of communists and socialists in opposition to the government of PAS, there is besides a radical, populist movement "Winning", controlled by the pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Șor, and the fresh centre block "Alternativa", which aims to attract voters disappointed by both government and conventional opposition.
Electoral rivalry is taking place in the shadow of many Russian Federation hybrid attacks that effort to destabilise Moldova and undermine its democratic process, primarily through illegal financing of pro-Russian political entities, disinformation campaigns, cyber attacks and energy blackmail. The European Union has, in turn, become a key player, providing crucial financial support to Moldova and the possible of accession, thus tying its credibility in the region to the endurance of the pro-European government in Chisinau.
This study analyses the complex play of these factors. It examines the historical context of the 2021 and 2024 elections, provides a detailed assessment of the key political actors and their strategies and analyses the impact of the war in Ukraine. The publication besides examines interior dividing lines, in peculiar economical difficulties and social discontent with rising cost of living, which will form the behaviour of voters. Finally, the study discusses the possible risks to the electoral process and presents 3 likely post-election scenarios: the renewed majority of PAS, the unstable coalition led by PAS or the government of the pro-Russian opposition, which would with large probability change Moldova's political course.
