Russia has posed itself a powerful challenge – to subdue the Arctic Ocean, to break through the ice cream, chaining its northern coasts. This could benefit natural materials exports, stimulate Siberia's improvement and give a stronger geopolitical position. The minute is groundbreaking.
The cold, lifeless majority of Russia's territory ("Climate curse",https://myslpolska.info/2023/05/22/happy-climate-objection/) is not the only challenge facing Russia. Its primary weakness is limited access to non-freezing ports, at the sea borders of the equator (38 1000 km erstwhile Poland 500 km).
Russia has so made a immense investment effort through the 4 Arctic seas of the North Sea Road (PDM), launching them for maritime transport. The plans are ambitious, the full in winter (and not only) handcuffed is thick ice. The task costs US$250 billion – it is simply a combination of 2 worlds – Europe and Asia – of the shortest waterway. From Murmansk to the ports of Japan, the road flows only 18 days, compared with 37 days via the Suez Canal. The journey from Shanghai to Hamburg takes 35 days by PMD erstwhile Suez requires at least 48 days.
However, the calculations must besides include frost and ice. Furiously cold areas of the Arctic Ocean covered in winter with thick ice, which makes shipping hard and in summer. Without the support of icebreakers, they can only be utilized for 2-4 years. And here there are surprises – in 2021, erstwhile the way should be clean, unexpected early frosts trapped respective ships.
The global consequence is so small, expanding the transport of goods goes hard... In addition, war and sanctions discouraged abroad carriers. The Chinese from COSCO (2nd planet company), sending even a twelve ships each year – in 2022 they reset, sent not one, fearing sanctions. But in 2022, PDM was transported most in past – 34 million tons, almost 1 million more than in ’21. Even 10 years ago, only 3.1 million tonnes of goods (11 times less) were transported in 2011. In the long term, improvement is visible, although ambitious plans cannot be achieved so easily.
Of course, this is almost nothing compared to the large passages, specified as the Malakka Strait, through which 3 billion tons of goods flow annually, or 100 times more. In 2022 1.4 billion tonnes were sent through the Suez Canal – more than 40 times more.
But the Northern Maritime Road is not only an global maritime route. It is above all the release from the icing of the natural materials of Siberia and the Arctic and the anticipation of their export. There is simply a lion's share of the mining – 73% oil, 87% natural gas, 75% coal. Without sea transport, they would stay trapped, so present their export – LNG (Noovatek), oil (Gazprom and Rosneft) – justifies the existence of PDM. The Arctic Ocean is simply a water catchment of large Russian rivers (Ob, Jenisej, Lena), which can let the possible of Siberia to be developed.
Road improvement will support the large task by Rosniefti "Wostok Oil", with the oil export terminal in Tajyra, which is expected to export 50 million tonnes per year from 2025. Logically, it is simply a well-located deposit – in the mediate of the Arctic Ocean coast, at an equal distance between the markets of Europe and Asia. The plans besides include private exports of coal from close deposits (the Polar Star project).
The task besides covers the onset of geopolitical conflict. Just as the US cannot let China to control the South China Sea, so cannot let the link between Asia and Europe under Russia's exclusive jurisdiction. This is so the “most dangerous sea crossing in the world” for them. Both the Baltic and the Black Sea can easy be blocked for ships from Russia. And here it looks like the shortest seaway between the European part of Russia and Asia. In addition, located entirely in the territorial waters and the exclusive economical region of Russia. It is simply a powerful challenge, cast on America, which reigns on ratings under the flag of "freedom of shipping". This way may besides have large geopolitical importance in the event of a conflict between the US and China if a maritime blockade occurs.
Despite all odds, the Russians step by step make a fresh connection between Asia and Europe, specified an Arctic Russian Silk Road. Recently, Rosatom personally assured president Putin that the yearly availability of PDM would be operational from the beginning of 2024. That would be a breakthrough. How is that possible? Next time.
Andrzej Szczęsniak
photo public domain
Think Poland, No. 23-24 (4-11.06.2023)