Cuba may turn out to be unbreakable for Trump.
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New threats and dubious pretexts may tempt Washington to effort to force a government change in Cuba. However, all attack on the island threatens to be a costly failure.
U.S. president Donald Trump gives a speech at the White home in honor of veterans of the Bay of Pigs invasion, 23 September 2020.By Scott Ritter
As the world's attention focuses on the inactive unresolved conflict between the US and Iran, the average recipient of the news can be forgiven for forgetting that the US had carried out a mini-invasion on Venezuela on January 3 of that year, resulting in the deaths of many people, including part of the Cuban safety forces, and besides captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife.
The United States justified this action, claiming that Maduro was an escaped criminal, previously accused by a national court of drug trafficking. The ease with which the United States led to the collapse of Maduro's government and facilitated the transfer of power to the hands of exceedingly submissive Vice president Delcy Rodríguez helped US president Donald Trump's administration to make an image of invincible force in the implementation of what the president and his advisors called "Donro's Doctrine"—their explanation of Monroe's 19th-century doctrine, which declared the hemisphere an exclusive US sphere of influence.
A small over a week later, on January 11, president Trump published in his account TruthSocial a message that posed a direct threat to the Cuban government. "For many years Cuba has lived with immense amounts of oil and money from Venezuela," wrote the President, explaining that there is simply a direct correlation between Venezuela's economical support for Cuba and Cuba's safety support for Venezuela. "Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military power in the planet to defend her, and we will defend her. No more oil and no money will flow to the bucket – zero! I call on them to scope an agreement before it is besides late!”
The president sparked a wave of speculation on American social media, responding to a witty entry on the X portal, in which 1 could read: “Marco Rubio will become president of Cuba”, and responding: “It sounds good!”.
The change of government in Cuba seemed inevitable.
A period later, president Trump met at the White home with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, where the decision to attack Iran was made. On 28 February, the United States and Israel launched an unexpected attack on Iran, starting a 37-day operation in which they yet failed to accomplish any of their declared military and geopolitical goals, and Iran was in a situation where, by controlling the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Ormuz, Tehran de facto decided on the destiny of the planet economy.
The invasion of Cuba was no longer the Trump administration's priority.
This assessment has changed almost overnight. On May 21, Marco Rubio stated that Cuba is “one of the leading promoters of terrorism throughout the region”. His message came the same day the U.S. Department of Justice published an indictment against erstwhile Cuban president Raúl Castro. In 1 day, the Trump administration one more time paved the way for US military action against Cuba, restoring the justifications for the regime's change, fabricated before the attack on Caracas on 3 January, which led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the fall of his government. These actions coincided with the arrival of an American carrier strike group off the coast of Cuba.
The portrayal of Cuba as a supporting state of terrorism is devoid of any argument and factual basis, especially since it follows straight the coordinated efforts of Biden's administration to remove this word for Cuba, as there was no longer any basis for it. However, it is simply a fact that there were akin shortcomings in the legality of the US charges against Nicolás Maduro.
However, Trump's administration does not invoke global law, but calls for a narrowly defined national electorate, for which even the weakest legal basis for action against Cuba would suffice. However, the designation of a country sponsoring terrorism is even more important, as it straight reflects the way to military action that the United States set out in the run-up to the decision to bomb Iran in February of that year. Eventually, the Trump administration prepares the ground for a military invasion of Cuba, a further escalation of economical pressure, or possibly both.
The reason for specified action is not the real threat that Cuba and its government pose to the United States, but alternatively the request for Trump administration to evidence a "victory" in the field of national safety following a disgraceful defeat in Iran.
Complementary elections are just around the corner, even though president Trump declared that his decisions in abroad policy would be formulated and implemented regardless of the political force resulting from the negative effects of the Republican Party's weak outcome. In short, if Republicans lose control of the home of Representatives, the remaining 2 years of presidency will be marked by political paralysis caused by endless impeachment procedures – which makes Trump's last 2 years of first term, during which he twice attempted impeachment, seem nothing compared to this. However, impeachment is Trump's least of problems – without the conviction of the Senate, attempts at impeachment will simply be rejected by Trump and his supporters as a politically motivated run of dissatisfied Democrats.
The real threat to Trump will arise if Republicans lose control of the Senate, especially if they gain an advantage large adequate to endanger to convict, requiring at least 60 out of 100 senators to vote. In this case, president Trump makes a immense mistake in assessing the situation in Cuba and American home policy. Trump follows the directions of his secretary of state and national safety advisor, Marco Rubio, a man who has struggled throughout his life with accumulated anti-Cubian concerns that form his worldview.
Media: Trump intensifys its run in Cuba, discussing government change
Both Rubio and Trump are aware of the political realities in Florida and realize the crucial function the many Cuban diaspora plays in shaping presidential policy. However, supplementary elections are not national elections. Complementary elections usually reflect another political barometer, depending on local political issues, mostly determined by the state of the local economy. National issues usually play a secondary function and, mostly speaking, the Cuban electorate in Florida does not affect the overall result in the country erstwhile seats in the home of Representatives and the legislature are counted on election night.
Moreover, Rubio and Trump would do well to get acquainted with the 1992 presidential election in which incumbent president George H.W. Bush entered the race with a immense advantage, partially thanks to the awesome U.S. military triumph over Iraq during Operation Desert Storm. Bush's competitor, Bill Clinton, tripped in an effort to match Bush's abroad policy, prompting his run leader, James Carville, to put a yellow card on the door of the “war room” run with a simple inscription: “The economy, idiot!”.
Bush promised that there would be no fresh taxes, but he did not keep that promise. The economical crisis resulting from this mistake gave Clinton the impulse he needed to make up for the losses and defeat Bush in November 1992.
President Trump is facing an economical disaster due to the fact that he failed to defeat Iran and due to the resulting global energy crisis. If Trump believes he can trick the Americans into forgetting the devastating economical consequences of his mistakes in the mediate East by invading Cuba and overthrowing the Communist government there, he is profoundly mistaken.
It's the economy, you idiot.
However, the fact is that Trump and Rubio may not accomplish the expected victory. Cuba is not Venezuela, and the CIA may not be able to repeat Maduro's betrayal for which he paid and which he conducted among Venezuelan political, military and economical elites. Many Cuban observers do not believe that this will be achieved in this island country.
Survey: The vast majority of U.S. citizens argue the war with Cuba
Fulton Armstrong, a erstwhile Latin American intelligence officer who erstwhile worked undercover as a CIA agent in Cuba, late wrote a memorandum for the organization Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), in which he stated that “the US-led “failure of the regime” and business or installation of the government according to our choice [in Cuba] would endure a terrible defeat. The same people who make certain that their old 1957 Chevys work, holding a coat hanger, will do tremendous harm to the government imposed from outside.” Armstrong added: "U.S. pressures on Cuba have not been effective for more than six decades".
Marco Rubio can inactive convince Donald Trump to invade Cuba. However, alternatively of being crowned with a revitalized abroad and safety policy that helps safe the Republican Party's influence in the U.S. Congress, and thus keep Trump's interior and abroad policy effectiveness for the next 2 years, the invasion of Cuba will most likely lead to a disaster that, together with defeat in Iran, will seal the end of Trump's era erstwhile and for all.
